Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[Brent Huigens]

I tend to detach myself from reading and posting as I believe the message boards offer the hobby a forum for discussing issues openly without the influence of businesses like ours. I’m writing this post to share my thoughts on how the hobby is changing due to an influx of buyers using sportscards as an investment, and trading them like commodities. This is in part a follow up to a post on the Net54 Baseball message board here about the ethics of “market pushing”. The purpose of this post is to share my opinion on the root causes of this phenomenon; and why this may be uncomfortable, is perhaps a sign of a maturing industry.

Those of us who have been in the hobby for longer than 10 years are surely seeing the recent market trends and simply shaking our heads. Clearly the world has lost its mind and we are undoubtedly headed towards the biggest bubble bursting event in the history of collectibles. Maybe… or maybe not. Here’s at least one argument for why what’s happening is both justified and has even been predicted.

In general, the “brand” of sportscard collecting is maturing. We’ve seen this trend trickle forward over the last five years especially for the top 1% of cards. Clemente RC PSA 8s traded readily in the $8000 range five years ago, then they went to $15,000 three years ago…. then $30,000 last year… and now $100,000 seems to be the new benchmark. How is this possible? A 1000% return on investment in five years?

For the overwhelming majority of the industry, the “hobby” element of card collecting remains strong and vibrant and seems destined to stay that way. However, the top 1% (especially top 0.1%) of vintage cards are re-branding themselves away from pure collectibles to instead take firm root in the world of commodities. Just like pork bellies, bonds, and orange juice concentrate.

Within this new “commodity” element, the only two variables that matter are supply and demand; that’s it. And there’s the catch… supply. Sportscards are some of the rarest commodities in the world where even the highest population high-profile cards (i.e. Jordan RC PSA 10s, Clemente RC PSA 8s, etc) are rarely seen on the market at any one time in quantities higher than 2 or 3. Sure the populations of these cards may be 100 or more, but who cares? Any highly-prized commodity with population in the hundreds or less is absurdly low; perhaps to the point of creating a sheer frenzy when these investments surface on the open market. And that’s what we are seeing.

It is important to note that when it comes to high-value collectibles, sportscards are not a trailblazer. In particular, coins and fine art are far beyond the current market of sportscards, even in light of the recent trends. Compared to these other industries, sportscards have a long (long) way to grow before competing for market cap alongside these other collectible based commoditized markets.

Let’s also take a moment to see the potential and speak positively for a moment; sportscards are a heck of a lot more fun to most people and certainly appeal to more investors than most other portfolio diversifications. What’s more fun to your average ‘guy’ investor… a fancy painting, some rare 5-cent nickel, or a Roberto Clemente Rookie card? Assuming the three options had equal investment potential, which would you most enjoy owning? I know what I’d say and I know a few other folks who feel similarly

One point of pessimism that I feel warrants discussion is the claim that “this must be a bubble because there’s only a handful of people responsible for most of the recent price increase”. In other words, this trend must be fragile indeed if only a few people are responsible for the change and what happens if one of them runs out of money or leaves the hobby? What if the market is flooded by the recent sales history and these few individuals can’t keep up? These are all fair and reasonable fears to harbor and I don’t have all the answers; to a large degree I am riding the waves with everyone else, trying desperately to keep some view of the horizon (and it’s been tough of late).

Let’s get a couple things straight:

1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

2) Should even a few of these 10-30 people vacate their position and nobody replaces them then this could possible turn into a bubble bursting event for certain cards. Supply and demand rules supreme and if supply goes up too high or demand goes down too low, the market will lower. Just a fact.

The above statements are both true; no reason to hide from it or run for the hills. In light of these truths, I have never been more confident of the bright future we face in this hobby than I do today. This is not a bubble, or at least I am confident from my position that this is not a bubble. Sure, some individual cards may get pushed higher than is sustainable and need to eventually correct, but I can’t help but view the above comments from a glass-half-full perspective… the fact that only 10-30 people can change a market is incredible! What happens when the 10-30 investors becomes 20-40? What happens when it gets to be 100-200?

Considering the recent unprecedented ROI with sportscards and also considering the love of sports and the inherent wealth investors are ready and willing to invest towards collectibles, it seems awkward indeed to argue that demand for the top 1% is going anywhere but up. As the largest auction house in the country for sportscards, we are already seeing a new generation of investors entering the hobby and this trend is on an upward track. Sure, supply may run in spurts as some more nervous collectors may choose to fire-sale in light of recent trends, but these mini-liquidations will soon dry up and the sturdier breed will be happy to continue betting on the market. I suppose it’s possible that greater supply could also come from new cards being graded, but this too is unlikely to add any meaningful % to the current population. I for one will be shocked if the population of 1952 Mantle PSA 8s rise by more than 10% in the next five years (same for PSA 8 Clemente rookies). Yep, I for one feel the “well is dry” and what little water we have is all we’ll ever have. Just my two cents but in light of the harsh supply/demand principals considered, I feel the 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 8 may be the most undervalued card in the entire hobby. As a pure commodity it might someday be considered “priceless” to some investors.

Brent Huigens
PWCC Auctions, LLC
brent@pwccauctions.com

[BeanTown]

When the well is dry, they will be turning to other wells. It's a process with collectors/investors as they will look for even more rare cards to buy and instead of buying an 8 they will buy a 5 of a card that has less than ten known or it's the highest grade for that issue.

I think chances are very good that if one of the collectors/investors gets out of the hobby, that there will be two or three ore people to replace them. There are 7000 people dying each day in America and 11,000 are being born. We are adding 4000 people a day to our Country and that's not counting people coming here to live from other Countries. So, chances are really good we will continue too see growth in the hobby.

PWCC has done a great job in keeping the auction format alive on EBay which we all miss from a decade ago. Leon, Bill, and Elliot have done a great job running the board (at different times) for almost 20 years. This provides education for all collectors young and old, which is key for the growth!

[Steve D]

All I know is that if this is not a "bubble", then I am done. I'm in my early 50s, and simply can not compete monetarily with these "investors". Heck, with the prices I'm seeing, I can't even hope to obtain a PSA 5 Clemente RC, or a PSA 7 Reggie Jackson

The hobby I've known for 40+ years is history


Steve

[begsu1013]

.

[PowderedH2O]

I am like Steve D. I can't afford to play. But, I can still afford most cards in Vg or Vg-Ex. I can deal with that.

[Republicaninmass]

.
1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

You'd know best, as you are shipping them.

[birdman42]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

will only be a matter of time before the first piranha bites and this thread gets turned into a stake burning.

I'm more of a minnow than a piranha, and I can't find my lighter right now, but I think my experience is relevant here.

Brent, you bring up the examples of coins and fine art. I was active in the rare coin market for about 10 years, from the late 1970s to the late 80s, mostly on the dealer side, so I had a front-row seat for the commodification of coins--both rare and not-so-rare. There were a number of factors behind the change in the marketplace:

• Inflation and interest rates were relatively high, so cash investments were getting hammered. This led to a flight to value, especially precious metals.
• For a short period individuals were allowed to put non-cash items into their IRAs, increasing the demand.
• Several very high-profile collections came on the market that caught the public's attention (Garrett, Eliasberg, Jerry Buss, etc.).

Back in the boom days of the coin market, early- to mid-80s, the poster child for all the craziness was proof 3-cent nickels (look it up). Original mintage numbers for each date are fairly high (500 to a few thousand each year), so these are not what you'd call rare, or even particularly scarce. Within about 6 months the active trading price of these coins went from around $2,500 up to $8,000 or more. I had several of these pass through my hands. Not a one went to a long-time collector. Some went from hand to hand, while others went to people looking to protect their money. Current value, 30 years on? A nice clean MS-63 1878 proof (a proof-only date) sold not that long ago for a bit under $2,000.

Yes, this is an isolated example. It was part of a years-long trend, though, that brought many people into the market for the first time. This influx can be a good thing, but if those new people are the "Ooh! Shiny!" folk, then they're not going to last long or provide long-term price support. Some of them will get hooked by the allure of the product and stay around, but soon enough most will move on to the next thing. And yes, you do still see record prices set. But that's for the rarest of the rare, and Mantles don't qualify there. As a whole, the high end coin market turned out to be a lousy investment.

Where I see the similarity is that, at the time, even the sophisticated coin dealers completely bought into the idea that the trend would continue. For lots of reasons that's natural; if you don't believe in your product or the market, maybe you should be doing something else. I'm not saying that baseball cards are tulip bulbs, but I believe, based on what I've seen, that at some point the music will stop.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Brent Huigens

Within this new “commodity” element, the only two variables that matter are supply and demand; that’s it. And there’s the catch… supply. Sportscards are some of the rarest commodities in the world where even the highest population high-profile cards (i.e. Jordan RC PSA 10s, Clemente RC PSA 8s, etc) are rarely seen on the market at any one time in quantities higher than 2 or 3. Sure the populations of these cards may be 100 or more, but who cares? Any highly-prized commodity with population in the hundreds or less is absurdly low; perhaps to the point of creating a sheer frenzy when these investments surface on the open market. And that’s what we are seeing.

I'd agree with nearly everything Brent has written except for the above. Being involved in multiple hobbies all of them for a good deal more than 10 years, I'd say that demand is the primary and nearly only driver in hobbies.

What's considered "rare" varies from one hobby to the next, and in general even the things that would be rare in any hobby also need a couple other elements to create demand. Popularity of the subject or object is of course almost a necessity, as is a good story that either explains the rarity or Adds to the interest in the item in some way.

That tends to be true in any hobby, cards for sure, stamps as well. perhaps less so in coins and I can't quite get a handle on it for art since each piece is unique unless you collect prints.

I stopped counting the number of things I had collected that were more rare than the top tier items in the various hobbies. After decades of collecting needless to say it's become a fairly large number.
Wagner? maybe 60 plus a few known. There are lots of cards that are less common than that.
The upside down airplane stamp (Scott C3a ) 100 issued. There are probably more US stamps that are less common as there are C3as
But none are airmail stamps which is a popular area, and none have the same sort of great story behind them. (The CIA invert is less common, and has a great story, but about 60 years less time to become legendary)

The larger point is that sportscards is unique in some respects compared to other hobbies. With the very rarest coins and stamps (And bicycles and whatever) There is no lower grade population for prices to trickle down to. So whatever a 1913 liberty nickel sells for really only applies to that coin and the other 4 known. The coin market has embraced condition rarities for more common coins but as far as I can see, there's been little effect on the prices of lower condition examples.

With cards it seems to be sorting itself out. As the 10s and 9s become too much for most of us, the number of people willing to settle for an 8 rises, and so does the demand and price.
In the same way, one of the "special" cards being in a set boosts the whole set. T206s are generally pretty common, and benefit from the popularity of the Wagner. The same could be said for 52 Topps, 86 Fleer basketball and a few other sets. Without the special card they'd simply be another set.

All that is the sort of thing that any hobby is based on. Trust me on this, a couple of my hobbies are so obscure there are no items like the Wagner etc, and luckily for me very little monetary value. Good since I can afford a lot of cool stuff. Not so good since that same cool stuff often gets thrown out because it's "worthless" - Just like cards when I first got into them more seriously in the late 70's. People would toss out worn old cards because only the nice ones were worth anything.
Without dealers tracking the stuff down, collectors wanting it, and yes, investors of varying degrees of disposable income any hobby would be less than it is.

Steve B

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Brent Huigens

...
1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.
...

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by glchen

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

Yes...a highly possible scenario.

[Yoda]

Watch out Hobby when the next T206 Honus hits the market. Dutch tulips step aside, this is the real deal. I bet a few of the lucky holders of the "Holy Grail" are getting itchy palms just wondering how much the old boy might fetch. Lots and lots of Benjamins for one baseball card. Hmmm

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Watch out Hobby when the next T206 Honus hits the market. Dutch tulips step aside, this is the real deal. I bet a few of the lucky holders of the "Holy Grail" are getting itchy palms just wondering how much the old boy might fetch. Lots and lots of Benjamins for one baseball card. Hmmm

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

[bravos4evr]

The thing is, those "investors" who pay $150k for a rose rookie are going to want to flip it for $200k and soon too, eventually there is going to come a time when some of these "whales" (to use gambling parlance) are going to liquidate everything and someone , or several ones, are going to be left holding the bag as the prices become unsustainable. Sure some cards will always rise, but they tend to do it slowly, these 1000% bumps in just a few months are going to cause a landslide eventually.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

[Exhibitman]

As interesting as this all is academically, to an average upper middle class professional person who collects as a leisure activity (like me) what happens with five and six figure PSA-labeled RCs has as much relevance as a discussion of prices on brownstones on Park Avenue in Manhattan. I am not in the market for one, I will never be in the market for one, and I don't really care whether it sells for $10,000 or $10,000,000, because over a certain price level I have no foreseeable stake in the outcome.

If I happened to be holding one of these marquee cards right now I would certainly liquidate it and replace it with a nice looking example in a holder with a lower number. That's just common sense for a collector like me: when I can pay for a year of college tuition by selling a single card and still have enough change to buy a nice looking one for myself, that card is gone.

The sole effect this has on a commoner like me (besides just making me sad about where a hobby I enjoy is going) is to push me to get into cards I've wanted but not had any urgency to get, simply because I know that there will be more competition for these cards now that the specimens in high end slabs have been priced out of most collectors' ranges. Which is why these pasteboard treasures both are and are not commodities like gold. When the price of gold rises to dizzying heights, investors move to another commodity, but when a 1954 Aaron rises precipitously, us Aaron collectors can't just 'skip' it and not have his RC. We downshift to lower grade specimens. Over the last two years I've bought or traded into numerous lower grade specimens of cards that have made the 'investor' list, and I am interested in obtaining more of them, provided they are available at my price points.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Yes...a highly possible scenario.

Agreed. There is nobody on this planet that can convince me that these recent and ridiculous prices on high profile rookies is where the market truly is, and that the prices are spot on. Something is going on, big time. If not, where have they been in the last 25 years? We are seeing prices that don't even make sense to people that have been in the hobby for 25 years plus...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Agreed. There is nobody on this planet that can convince me that these recent and ridiculous prices on high profile rookies is where the market truly is, and that the prices are spot on. Something is going on, big time. If not, where have they been in the last 25 years? We are seeing prices that don't even make sense to people that have been in the hobby for 25 years plus...

I guess, but you (as a net54 community) cant criticize the craziness but when sell your own cards cite the prior sales to support your high price...you cant have it both ways..... i talking generally not directly the the person quoted.

[scotgreb]

If you listen you can hear it
It's the laughter in the street
It's the motion in the music
And the fire beneath your feet
All the signs are right this time
You don't have to try so very hard
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

All the cowboys and your neighbors
Can you swallow up your pride
Take your guns off it you're willin'
And you know we're on your side
If you want to get through the years
It's high time you played your card
If you live in this world
You're feelin' the change of the guard

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by glchen

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

I have been seeing this with autographs on eBay. I have been outbid by the same 2 or 3 dealers on a number of items only to see them relisted a few weeks or months later for 2x the price. They are obviously trying to hook a novice into overpaying for the item to drive up the overall value. This business model makes me sick to my stomach. Seems like a used car salesman approach.

[Yoda]

Can somebody explain to me why a secretary of the treasury, who admittedly has his name attached to one of the big NYC banks (Chase obviously) was nominated to be on the $10,000 bill, the largest denomination note in the land at the time. He certainly would have to be be the most obscure individual gracing our currency. Did he serve under Lincoln during the Civil War?

[egri]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Can somebody explain to me why a secretary of the treasury, who admittedly has his name attached to one of the big NYC banks (Chase obviously) was nominated to be on the $10,000 bill, the largest denomination note in the land at the time. He certainly would have to be be the most obscure individual gracing our currency. Did he serve under Lincoln during the Civil War?

During the Civil War, when the first US paper currency was issued, Chase put his face on it to boost his name recognition for a possible presidential run. That probably had something to do with the decision to put him on the $10,000 note in 1928.

[Steve D]

Well, I have to say that I have had it!

I just got outbid on a Reggie Jackson PSA 4 1969 Topps; card ended at $190 (double the recent going rate). Then I got outbid on a Steve Carlton PSA 7 1965 Topps; card went for $868 (the last PSA 8 sold for $520 on June 20th).

Edited to add that just 2 days ago, a PSA 6 Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps went for $190.

This is absolute bull$hit!

People have lost all concept of reality, and for those who are saying the prices on high-grade cards won't affect the lower grades, I say BS! It is already affecting practically ALL grades of cards!

Steve

[Snapolit1]

I guess I really don't understand the "I feel sad for the hobby" thread running through so much of this. Collect what you want and be happy. If there are people pushing prices to ridiculous levels steer clear and be happy. The fact that record numbers of people are paying attention to collecting vintage cards is a good thing for all of us. No doubt some of you would rather be in a dark basement trading cards with some kind of secret handshake society but those days are gone. I'm not trying to be an ass, but so much of this gloom and doom is starting to seem like sour grapes that people are being priced out of some cards. Deal with it and if others lose their shirt well that's that. I can't afford to live in a penthouse apartment on 5th Avenue in NYC for $50 million dollars, but that doesn't mean that the person who buys it is stark raving crazy. If the very top end of the hobby is crazy we are in good company with art works, collector cards, real estate, and plenty of other things.

[seablaster]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I guess I really don't understand the "I feel sad for the hobby" thread running through so much of this. Collect what you want and be happy. If there are people pushing prices to ridiculous levels steer clear and be happy. The fact that record numbers of people are paying attention to collecting vintage cards is a good thing for all of us. No doubt some of you would rather be in a dark basement trading cards with some kind of secret handshake society but those days are gone. I'm not trying to be an ass, but so much of this gloom and doom is starting to seem like sour grapes that people are being priced out of some cards.

Steve, collectors can be very passionate about their interests. That being the case, they may take it personally when they feel like their interests are being unduly manipulated.

I've seen no data to suggest that record numbers of people are collecting vintage cards. Just because prices are rising exponentially in a certain segment doesn't mean they became more popular. Clearly the hobby/industry is below the level it was during the boom of the early 1990s in terms of popularity.

But you're right, some of it is sour grapes.

[Econteachert205]

Here is My opinion of what is going on:

1. Record low interest rates pushing people toward risk assets.
2. Money laundering
3. Rampant speculation
4. People buying on emotion


Stuff like this always ends well. Be careful. Please note I do not blame pwcc for any of this, they are simply a successful business in the midst of this.

[Snapolit1]

Seems to me that 99% of the cards people talk about here are completely removed from the supposed bubble. I venture out to card shows once in a while and there's no one there selling any 52 Mantles. More likely a 85 Ray Knight or Ron Darling. While the activity at the very top of the market looks like cold investing and not any kind of collecting, I'm not sure why it distresses people so much. If you live in Iowa and want to buy a nice house, do you really care what's going on in New York City or Chicago real estate prices? If its manipulation, so be it. Have you heard about the stock market? Not sure but I suspect there are some people manipulating the prices there to.

[ALR-bishop]

As usual I am lost. I am still trying to understand bitcoins.

[Exhibitman]

It distresses people, it makes them sad. Personally,I am sick of the headlines over prices. It isn't fun to have your pastime commoditized. If I go play a round of golf I don't want to hear how valuable the land under the green is. Reality bites; doesn't need to intrude into baseball cards. Plus when the news is all about money in cards a certain element many of us have in common gets ideas about what "your" cards could do for "us" if they were sold off.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems to me that 99% of the cards people talk about here are completely removed from the supposed bubble. I venture out to card shows once in a while and there's no one there selling any 52 Mantles. More likely a 85 Ray Knight or Ron Darling. While the activity at the very top of the market looks like cold investing and not any kind of collecting, I'm not sure why it distresses people so much. If you live in Iowa and want to buy a nice house, do you really care what's going on in New York City or Chicago real estate prices? If its manipulation, so be it. Have you heard about the stock market? Not sure but I suspect there are some people manipulating the prices there to.

unlike real estate though, the price of a PSA 9 that escalates by 1000% in 6 months DOES impact those collectors just trying to grab a psa 6 or 7 for their collections. People think "well if a psa 9 is now worth $100k, (versus the $10k it was 6 months ago) shouldn't my 6 be worth $2500 instead of $250? and all of a sudden you have a market that becomes falsely inflated and the avg collectors who save up to buy their "one big card" miss out.

[begsu1013]

.

[Leon]

That was great. Then the kid took the card from Mint 9 to a fair 2 in one fell swoop but I don't think he cared.

edited to add, guess I didn't see the thread concerning this...

Originally Posted by begsu1013

warning: not necessarily prewar content, but i don't know any true collector that can not find joy in or would appreciate this. and i did steal this from another board, but figured some folks around here would enjoy it and the change of pace just as much.

scroll down and just watch the vid first:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/c...eakdown-063016

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

Here is My opinion of what is going on:

1. Record low interest rates pushing people toward risk assets.
2. Money laundering
3. Rampant speculation
4. People buying on emotion


Stuff like this always ends well. Be careful. Please note I do not blame pwcc for any of this, they are simply a successful business in the midst of this.

+1

[bravos4evr]

One good thing that has come from all this ,IMO, is that raw cards seem to have dropped a fair bit. I got a raw Waddell T206 for $35 that probably grades as a PSA1. I got a raw Bonds Tiffany rookie for $15, raw 68 Yaz in damn near mint condition for $8 and am about to add a very rare and desirable raw pre-war card for peanuts as well. It seems that the rush to nab high PSA graded cards has left a lot of nice stuff that is ungraded going for really low prices.

[gawaintheknight]

My question is this - a lot of the demand for Aaron, Clemente, Rose etc. rookies has to be coming from people who enjoyed watching them play. What happens when those people die off? I mean, I admire Clemente's stats, he was a great player and person, but he died when I was four years old and so I don't have any real connection to him, so I'm not likely to ever be as passionate as someone twenty years older than me who had him as a favorite player throughout his career. I know the pool of people who saw Ruth and Gehrig and DiMaggio play is pretty small and those prices keep going up, but the pre-war stuff has rarity that the Topps stuff doesn't. I am a very small player, so I don't know what to think of this argument.

[Kenrich Co.]

As others have noted, Brent has better visibility into the drivers of the hobby than probably anyone else, so his insights are appreciated.

As a collector and hobby enthusiast for the past 40 years (yikes), I've seen the evolution of the hobby to an industry. Back in 1984, the Clemente Rookie could be had for under $100 in mint condition. So what changed? Why would that card command over $475,000 in 2016?

It was gradual at first, but the introduction of price guides, the internet, Ebay, auction houses and PSA were significant drivers. However, in my humble opinion, what has turbo-charged everything in recent years has been the PSA Registry and Population Report.

The Registry and Population Report changed the game: it taps into the EGO, which is a powerful driver for many. Sportscards have, more than ever, become a serious investment vehicle for many well-heeled individuals. Those who want to have the best, be it as a collector or investor will drive prices higher and higher. Cards are dis-proportionally higher in price at PSA10 vs PSA9 because of this dynamic. What boggles the mind though, are some of the prices commanded for recently issued cards (1986 and newer). To me, this area of the market would seem to be more vulnerable to correction. The older stuff will always be gold.

I expect that if/when "big fish" leave the market, others will readily step in to take their place. For those who want to collect on a budget, you can still do it although at lower grades.

There may be bumps along the way and economic downturns, but I see no end to the long-term trend higher. We probably will look back at this time and wonder why we didn't buy more of what we love at those "low, low prices of 2016."

[BBB]

I've always thought Gibson was undervalued. So I'm glad it's going up.

Jim Palmer was a great pitcher, perhaps better than Gibson (except for Gibsons '68 season). but Palmet doesn't have the reputation of Gibson. It's almost impossible to build that this far after the fact . I'd put Steve Carlton and Tom Seaver ahead of Palmer in the line for similar reasons.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by BBB

I've always thought Gibson was undervalued. So I'm glad it's going up.

Jim Palmer was a great pitcher, perhaps better than Gibson (except for Gibsons '68 season). but Palmet doesn't have the reputation of Gibson. It's almost impossible to build that this far after the fact . I'd put Steve Carlton and Tom Seaver ahead of Palmer in the line for similar reasons.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One card explosion doesn't mean it's going up. I haven't confirmed the winning bidder even paid for the card.

[begsu1013]

.

[ullmandds]

The hobby is officially MAD!!! Pwcc's auctions ending tonight...an off centered psa 8 clemente rookie is currently going for almost 4 times that of a nm goudey ruth.

Commoditization...insanity...call it what u will. A good time to sit on the sidelines and wait things out in my opinion or buy all of these underpriced vintage pre wwII cards .

[drcy]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

The hobby is officially MAD!!! Pwcc's auctions ending tonight...an off centered psa 8 clemente rookie is currently going for almost 4 times that of a nm goudey ruth.

Commoditization...insanity...call it what u will. A good time to sit on the sidelines and wait things out in my opinion or buy all of these underpriced vintage pre wwII cards .

My saying is "That a lot of people do it, doesn't make it smart."

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

The hobby is officially MAD!!! Pwcc's auctions ending tonight...an off centered psa 8 clemente rookie is currently going for almost 4 times that of a nm goudey ruth.

Commoditization...insanity...call it what u will. A good time to sit on the sidelines and wait things out in my opinion or buy all of these underpriced vintage pre wwII cards .

Right on, Pete!

Regards,

Larry

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

nor will you.

you've got nothing to do w/ the sale, so why would he waste his time?

Then as far as Im concerned, the sale never took place. If someone says they paid $100 for a gallon of gas, am I gonna just blindly believe them?

[Dpeck100]

So if he says yes are you going to believe him?

[bobbyw8469]

That's the bad thing about these "sales"....it posts a sale in VCP but I doubt very seriously money changed hands on that card. VERY seriously.

Maybe that is the madness about the Gibson rookie. On the others (Koufax, Rose, and a few more) subsequent sales seemed to follow suit. On this particular card, it was the ONLY ONE that registered that high of a sale. Why??? To push the number up in VCP? Only two people sniped above $2,000. Every other bid was normal.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Brent Huigens

I tend to detach myself from reading and posting as I believe the message boards offer the hobby a forum for discussing issues openly without the influence of businesses like ours. I’m writing this post to share my thoughts on how the hobby is changing due to an influx of buyers using sportscards as an investment, and trading them like commodities. This is in part a follow up to a post on the Net54 Baseball message board here about the ethics of “market pushing”. The purpose of this post is to share my opinion on the root causes of this phenomenon; and why this may be uncomfortable, is perhaps a sign of a maturing industry.

Those of us who have been in the hobby for longer than 10 years are surely seeing the recent market trends and simply shaking our heads. Clearly the world has lost its mind and we are undoubtedly headed towards the biggest bubble bursting event in the history of collectibles. Maybe… or maybe not. Here’s at least one argument for why what’s happening is both justified and has even been predicted.

In general, the “brand” of sportscard collecting is maturing. We’ve seen this trend trickle forward over the last five years especially for the top 1% of cards. Clemente RC PSA 8s traded readily in the $8000 range five years ago, then they went to $15,000 three years ago…. then $30,000 last year… and now $100,000 seems to be the new benchmark. How is this possible? A 1000% return on investment in five years?

For the overwhelming majority of the industry, the “hobby” element of card collecting remains strong and vibrant and seems destined to stay that way. However, the top 1% (especially top 0.1%) of vintage cards are re-branding themselves away from pure collectibles to instead take firm root in the world of commodities. Just like pork bellies, bonds, and orange juice concentrate.

Within this new “commodity” element, the only two variables that matter are supply and demand; that’s it. And there’s the catch… supply. Sportscards are some of the rarest commodities in the world where even the highest population high-profile cards (i.e. Jordan RC PSA 10s, Clemente RC PSA 8s, etc) are rarely seen on the market at any one time in quantities higher than 2 or 3. Sure the populations of these cards may be 100 or more, but who cares? Any highly-prized commodity with population in the hundreds or less is absurdly low; perhaps to the point of creating a sheer frenzy when these investments surface on the open market. And that’s what we are seeing.

It is important to note that when it comes to high-value collectibles, sportscards are not a trailblazer. In particular, coins and fine art are far beyond the current market of sportscards, even in light of the recent trends. Compared to these other industries, sportscards have a long (long) way to grow before competing for market cap alongside these other collectible based commoditized markets.

Let’s also take a moment to see the potential and speak positively for a moment; sportscards are a heck of a lot more fun to most people and certainly appeal to more investors than most other portfolio diversifications. What’s more fun to your average ‘guy’ investor… a fancy painting, some rare 5-cent nickel, or a Roberto Clemente Rookie card? Assuming the three options had equal investment potential, which would you most enjoy owning? I know what I’d say and I know a few other folks who feel similarly

One point of pessimism that I feel warrants discussion is the claim that “this must be a bubble because there’s only a handful of people responsible for most of the recent price increase”. In other words, this trend must be fragile indeed if only a few people are responsible for the change and what happens if one of them runs out of money or leaves the hobby? What if the market is flooded by the recent sales history and these few individuals can’t keep up? These are all fair and reasonable fears to harbor and I don’t have all the answers; to a large degree I am riding the waves with everyone else, trying desperately to keep some view of the horizon (and it’s been tough of late).

Let’s get a couple things straight:

1) Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

2) Should even a few of these 10-30 people vacate their position and nobody replaces them then this could possible turn into a bubble bursting event for certain cards. Supply and demand rules supreme and if supply goes up too high or demand goes down too low, the market will lower. Just a fact.

The above statements are both true; no reason to hide from it or run for the hills. In light of these truths, I have never been more confident of the bright future we face in this hobby than I do today. This is not a bubble, or at least I am confident from my position that this is not a bubble. Sure, some individual cards may get pushed higher than is sustainable and need to eventually correct, but I can’t help but view the above comments from a glass-half-full perspective… the fact that only 10-30 people can change a market is incredible! What happens when the 10-30 investors becomes 20-40? What happens when it gets to be 100-200?

Considering the recent unprecedented ROI with sportscards and also considering the love of sports and the inherent wealth investors are ready and willing to invest towards collectibles, it seems awkward indeed to argue that demand for the top 1% is going anywhere but up. As the largest auction house in the country for sportscards, we are already seeing a new generation of investors entering the hobby and this trend is on an upward track. Sure, supply may run in spurts as some more nervous collectors may choose to fire-sale in light of recent trends, but these mini-liquidations will soon dry up and the sturdier breed will be happy to continue betting on the market. I suppose it’s possible that greater supply could also come from new cards being graded, but this too is unlikely to add any meaningful % to the current population. I for one will be shocked if the population of 1952 Mantle PSA 8s rise by more than 10% in the next five years (same for PSA 8 Clemente rookies). Yep, I for one feel the “well is dry” and what little water we have is all we’ll ever have. Just my two cents but in light of the harsh supply/demand principals considered, I feel the 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 8 may be the most undervalued card in the entire hobby. As a pure commodity it might someday be considered “priceless” to some investors.

Brent Huigens
PWCC Auctions, LLC
brent@pwccauctions.com

Please shut your pie hole Brent Mastro. You are a DICK. I hope you end up in jail you crook.

[BigBeerGut]

Brent it seems as if you are a bit off topic?

Please talk more about what we all really want to hear about from you

What about you just say sorry ? You owe the community an apology and 100's of thousands have been spent on cards you knew were bogus. PSA was not involved they are not a part of it!

We expect the Moshers of the world to do their thing but YOU are the chosen one we all trusted

You are running the casino with loaded dice!? why why why

Tell us you didnt know

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by BigBeerGut

Brent it seems as if you are a bit off topic?

Please talk more about what we all really want to hear about from you

What about you just say sorry ? You owe the community an apology and 100's of thousands have been spent on cards you knew were bogus. PSA was not involved they are not a part of it!

We expect the Moshers of the world to do their thing but YOU are the chosen one we all trusted

You are running the casino with loaded dice!? why why why

Tell us you didnt know

So sad reminds me of a awful war criminals statement on propaganda

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.
Joseph Goebbels

I’m saddened by the fact that so many collectors and investors bought into this :-(

[Peter_Spaeth]

.

[Johnny630]

Yup they swallow the hook to his method of Marketing just like the Registry sheeple to PSA whom are so entrenched on their brand there is no coming back for them they have to continue to beat the PSA drum....For as much as I dislike many things about PSA their Marketing is Brilliant

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

.

One of Andy Warhol's lesser works.

He said, "in the future, everybody will be famous for fifteen minutes." What an incredibly prescient statement that was.