Wow ! the cost of finding out values, Is It Wasted $$

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Posted By: Bob

Al is spot on in his post that SMRs are worthless because of the number of re-submissions, cracking outs and submitting to a different grading service, etc. I also think Bob P's comment about what a card is worth to you is also apt. Remember the 1911-1912 Zeenut fever that swept through here about a year ago? Now that 4-5 collectors (myself included) obtained the cards they needed the prices have leveled off and with a decreasing demand, prices have returned to normal. Yet if you took the SMRs and also the prices obtained for the last 12 months, you would be disappointed in today's prices if you were a seller and very happy as a buyer...

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Posted By: Scott Fandango

what does SMR have to do with POP reports and resubmits? they are 2 different things entirely...

first POP reports are not useless , althought they may not be 100% accurate...


for instance, a pop report will accurately show how many of the highest grade exists.....it will also give you the MAXIMUM number of graded examples, another good barometer...

also, the few amount of crackouts and crossovers is very small relative to the entire population, so just because you may have a redundant card (graded twice from a crackout) it doesnt nullify ALL the information...

also, if anything, the PSA POP reports are way more useful than SGC because SGC doesnt differentiate variations (which is a huge error i believe on their part) SGC POP report is VERY USELESS for E90-1 specifically..how can you not label the 3 different keeler cards COME ON SGC GET WITH IT!


lastly, anyone who argues $99 is not worth it for PSA membership is not too swift....you are basically prepaying for 6 submissions and they give you online access to POP reports (which i believe is useful) and they give you a magazine subscription that is at least worth $20 yearly fee. and is good light reading for lunch break...

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Let slow, damn near stationary, me address two aspects of what you have there, Scott F.

First, a pop report DOES NOT "accurately show how many of the highest grade exists." It would show how many times they've graded a card at that high grade. Some of the ones they've graded could have been resubmitted or cracked out and left that way.

The other matter is that I value $99 MUCH more than I would PSA membership. So I'm not too swift. Absolutely stuck in the mud, mire, and muck. But I think that was known by some... After all, I could buy a worn T206 HOFer for $99, much more fun to have than PSA membership. And for that $99 membership, to get 6 submissions a fellow would pay postage just one way, or both ways??? So to get the 6 submissions it would actually cost more than $99??

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Posted By: marshall barkman

The SMR can be misleading on pre-war cards at times but there is no doubt that it is a useful tool when trying to gauge cards and their value. If you can buy any card at 40% of SMR then you have made a great buy. Generally cards sell for 50 to 75% of SMR unless it is a rare low pop card. I use the SMR every night when looking at cards. All info is speculative so the card is really worth what someone is willing to pay.

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Posted By: Scott Fandango

why would someone crack out and resubmit a card THAT IS HIGHEST GRADED? wouldnt happen...they may submit for a bump, but if it is bumped, the pop report is adjusted...

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Posted By: Steve

I think Tbob meant to say pop reports and not smr.

Also, the pop report can be wrong even for 'highest graded' unless that card is a 10.

Some series have highest graded and the card is a 5, so in that case a card could have

been resubmitted trying to get it in a 6 holder.

With all that said it still has some useful information, just like VCP does.

Steve

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Reasons why...


owner doesn't like slabbed cards
crack out to cross over
crack out to get even higher grade
crack out to put in 15 pocket sleeves
crack out for ease of storage, a set of 520 T206s take up about as much space as 6 slabbed T206s

And if none of those possibilities are acceptable, if a 'highest graded' slab were to burn in a fire or be lost to a hurricane, then you'd still have the situation where the report doesn't accurately reflect what's extant, but rather what they've graded.

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Posted By: Scott Mt. Joy

VCP is well worth the fees to me, I used the past auctions daily. I also have my entire graded collection entered into the My Collection section. That lets me track current sales values of my collection broken up by my own groups, to me its like tracking my stock/401k accounts.

I dont even check SMR, I just dont find it useful. I do use the pop report a lot and find it valuable (its not perfect as has been mentioned). I have purchased raw cards many times based on those pop reports.

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Posted By: Mike

I would like the opinions as to why the SMR prices are worthless. Are they too low or too high ? Are certain grades way off etc. ? Please list why . Thanks Mike

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Posted By: barrysloate

In some cases they are too high, and in others too low. On occasion, they are about right. They don't seem to reflect the market, but instead have been determined using some kind of formula or guesstimate.

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Posted By: Paul Grubor

I signed up at the 2007 Cleveland National and use the site all the time. I have my graded card collection on the site and just love it! I feel the fee is very fair. It also helps me decide which cards to send to psa. Say I'm looking at nm/mt 1972's and an 8 recently sold for $6.00. Well thats a card that is not worth grading but if an 8 sells for $40.00 well thats a different story. I honestly would pay $300.00 per year for this super site!

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Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth

VCP is relevant and necessary.

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Posted By: Scott Mt. Joy

Ok here are two examples of VCP and SMR using a set that has lots of sales, 1962 Topps-

The toughest common in the set #323 Don Landrum (yes used to show the extreme)

VCP Pricing of 5+ sales average-
PSA 6- $3
PSA 7- $49
PSA 8- $1,151
SMR Values-
PSA 6- $6
PSA 7- $10
PSA 8- $26

Second example card #5 Sandy Koufax
VCP Ave-
PSA 6- $72
PSA 7- $121
PSA 8- $897

SMR Values-
PSA 6- $100
PSA 7- $195
PSA 8- $950

The way I look at the Koufax is that if I didnt have the VCP info I might pay $195 for a PSA 7 from a BIN when I could just wait and get one in the $120-130 auction range and save $65, more than saving enough to offset the monthly cost of VCP.

One other thing to consider, many sets are not listed in the SMR. I collect exhibits and none of the 1921-1938 sets are listed and the 1939 and 1947-66 sets are so undervalued I would pay their prices right now for all the cards I need for my set. I would feel like I got the bargin of the century.

From the sound of it you might just try the one day sub so you can get an idea if it would be worthwhile to you or not.

**Edited for spelling doh** and some spaces

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Posted By: Ken McMillan

for me not worth it. However, It would be valuable for a high volume buyer but then used only as a guideline. In the end, a card will sell for what the market will bear at the time. Also there is a lag from publishing to current so information may not be accurate.



Kmac

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

"Also there is a lag from publishing to current so information may not be accurate."

Ken: what are you talking about? The results from eBay posts within minutes after an auction ends. All other auction houses within 24 hours. How much faster to you expect?

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Posted By: Ken McMillan

Bobby,

I'm not criticizing your service because I think it great. My point is along the following lines: If you are buying stocks in the stock market and reading The Wall Street Journal the next day, does that information reflect what is happening with a stock that you are thinking about buying that day? Not necessarily. It could be a good indicator but things can happen in the market that would make the stock go up or down. Now I realized that baseball cards are not stocks and are usually not as volatile as stocks, but information can change. Your service should be used as a guideline for those that choose to purchase it. That is all I am saying.

Kmac

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Posted By: macboube

It is easily one of the top two tools (along with Pop Report) in the evaluation of value process. Bobby, from one Santa Monican to another....keep up the good work!

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Posted By: Ted Sherman

"I could buy a worn T206 HOFer for $99,"


Go ahead, and I will check VCP and buy 2 t206 hof'er PSA 3 for 99, while you bought the equilvelant of a PSA 1. Bet you dont believe in sniping auctions either. SHEESH If you just buy raw cards VCP is not worth it.

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Posted By: rand

i cannot afford $179 a year. if i could i would sign up for it. i was a member when they started i think it was $99 then. how many members are signed up to VCP. would be interesting to know, kinda like how many card collectors are actively out there?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I am a subscriber to VCP plus the pop data from PSA. I think that while most do not look too closely at the SMR(myself included) the pop data is invaluable if you are a vintage card buyer. The relationship between price and pop is indisputable and low pop cards 2-3 years ago are still by and large the low pop cards of today.

Jim

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Posted By: ScottDango

you said
"Reasons why...


owner doesn't like slabbed cards
crack out to cross over
crack out to get even higher grade
crack out to put in 15 pocket sleeves
crack out for ease of storage, a set of 520 T206s take up about as much space as 6 slabbed T206s
"


i think all those are not legitmate reasons to CRACKOUT...

1. if you dont like slabbed cards, your not gonna own the highest grade and crack it out...you may crack out a lower graded, not the highest...

2. why crack out a highest grade and risk a lower grade...people who have the highest grade will RESUBMIT, NOT CRACK OUT..

3. again, nobody is goona crack the highest graded card (most valubale ) and place them raw in a pocket sleeve...

IF anyone has done this, they like throwing money away....

HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CRACKING AND RESUBMITTING...you have to understand WHEN each wouldhappen....

Frank, you seem like a smart fella, not sure why your not grasping this...

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Posted By: Al

I think the fact that you cannot afford the VCP membership at the Gold or Silver level kinda puts things into perspective. I do not wish to appear snobbish or elitist, but perhaps the lowest level of VCP membership may be the one for you. I own the 13th best 55 Topps set in the Registry (Teddy Ballgame)...no brag, just fact. I'm getting closer and closer to having $40k tied up in those 206 pieces of cardboard, and VCP has been an invaluable tool to me to assist in my decision making of bid prices. I reup for the Silver membership (soon I think)...but the point is, VCP provides current market conditions and as time passes they amass a fairly recent history of sales. Not only that, but they present data in a high-average-low selling prices from a host of sources beyond eBay.

Additionally, they provide a graph of sales trends for each card. I too cannot afford every card that comes along, unless I go into debt and pull out my Master Card. I buy when I have the money to do so, but if I wanted, I could pull out the plastic, I just choose not to do so. I guess what I'm trying to say is that perhaps we are at different levels in terms of collecting. Perhaps the cost of what I collect may seem exhorbitant to you, but it's all relative, really. Collect what makes you happy and what you will enjoy having.

I do from time to time collect raw and have three binders of Red Sox player cards. In addition to being able to afford this, that or the other, it's really a personal choice on what you want to collect.

As for shilling, it exists, kinda like rain, it comes and goes. The shilling aspect of our collecting efforts should not impact your decision whether or not to bid on a card. I have been collecting the 55 Topps set for about 4 years, I kinda know the set ice cold, however, I do my research via pop report and VCP sales of what I think I want or need, come up with a price I can live with, win or lose I stick to my guns...shilling has not a scintilla of impact on my decisions. I DO NOT use SMR, it is simply out of sync with reality.

I recently bid on a 55 Topps Monte Irvin PSA 8, one of the toughest cards in the 55T set. I bid $2,156.01 and came in second, missed it by $10, but then again I don't know what the top bidder's high bid was. Perhaps there will be another time for me. Again, point is, pick a price you can live with, snipe that sucker and let the chips fall where they may. Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield.

GL in your collecting efforts. Louis Pasteur once said "Chance favors the prepared mind". Translation to me is do your research from all available sources, and to me VCP is about as good as it gets. No other website will give you the current market place data that VCP will provide you.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Forget Louis Pasteur, I much prefer "sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield."

Now that is profound!

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Posted By: rand

hello Al, thank you for the well thought out post. i did not take your initial statement the wrong way. i will give you a cliff note version of my background. for those that know me a bit better.. i was an avid 33 goudey collector. i built the set twice, with a 106. i had a set worth well over $60k and sold it, i am an sgc guy, and had many 1/1 high grade cards. built up again and sold another. my business went down the drain (construction house flipping in Florida) when the housing market crashed. long story short.. when i was involved heavily with my 33 goudeys, i didnt need alot of help once i understood the nuances of the set. it took me 18 months to really grasp the cards and availability. after that experience, any set i have taken on i learn quickly about it.

i dont feel i need to spend $179 or $99 (psa) to get a grip on pricing. yes, VCP offers a great deal of professional information and i do feel it is worth the money IF you want to utilize all the bells and whistles. i'd rather buy cards with the fees, especially since they are recurring fees every year.

my financial situation is not what is was. i do still collect, i have a pretty nice 1934 Sky Bird Set (Non Sports)and high grade 1936 Goudey R322 group.

so all in all, i respect VCP, take SMR to the boys room to look at the pix, and fully UNDERSTAND the value of pop reports and all major auction site final sales

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Scott...

All of what you said is why you'd not crack a "highest graded" slabbed card. For me, I have no reverence for slabbed cards, much less 'highest graded' cards, and it would be no big deal for me to bust one out if I had one. Most of the graded cards I've bought I've busted out. A few aren't out yet...

I knew a kid, now an adult. He asked to see my cards years ago. I showed him old cards. His oldest card was from the 1970s... I gave him a couple of T206s. And as years went by, I'd send him an old card or two on his birthday, high school graduation, and the like. One card I recall giving him was a Reulbach with glove, I recall it because I find Ed Reulbach's history interesting, and I have a bunch of that card. Anyway, a few years ago he and his family lost their home in one of those southern California fires. All the cards burned. My point, floods, hurricanes and the like have wiped out some cards. The reports don't accurately reflect what is currently out there, but may well reflect what they've graded. It isn't just semantics, it is reality. If you don't want to accept that you were mistaken, that's ok, but doesn't change reality.

After a couple of years of busting cards I started saving the slips. I haven't kept them all, but most. I like them, they're proof to me that the reports are off.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The pop reports are off due to floods and hurricanes? I can understand an occasional breakout or a crossover to SGC but floods and hurricanes? Frank, they are not perfect but trust me on this as I buy a lot of graded cards in all kinds of different sets and collectors treat the pop reports as basically accurate. There is a tremendous correlation between the pops and prices--any set you look at.

Jim

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Posted By: Tim

Jim-

I agree with you that most Pop reports are fairly close. However T206 is one of the worst with PSA due to their not including back designations when they first began grading. I understand their delima in fixing this, but it makes even an educated guess at the front/back pops impossible.

But like I said for most issues I believe they are close enough for the use they serve.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Jim,

Scott said, "for instance, a pop report will accurately show how many of the highest grade exists...."

The pop report doesn't accurately do that. That is what the discourse with him is about. As soon as one of the highest cards is broken out, crossed over, lost or destroyed, then it is no longer accurate.

So what you've taken exception to is a ways down into the discourse. Those reports aren't accurate. And even though folks who embrace professionally graded cards as near holy relics, some folks don't hold them in such high regard, and things happen to those slabs. Me thinking a flood got a slabbed card seems less ludicrous to me than thinking that the reports for highest graded are accurate. Again, they may accurately reflect what they've graded (assuming they assemble the reports with greater precision than they utilize in card grading and identification), but NOT accurate as to what exists.

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Posted By: Anonymous

I'm still trying to figure out Ken's comment that information changes and can make VCP information obsolete the next day.

Maybe new reports that a T206 HOF'er turned out to be a serial rapist, therefore his card values plummet?

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Posted By: Scott Mt. Joy

You are correct Frank but I did say above- "I do use the pop report a lot and find it valuable (its not perfect as has been mentioned)" and figured that would cover it. In any case its safe to say they are off on lots of cards (from mother nature, resubmits, etc) but I still find a lot of value in it.

One other thing, if say your montly card budget for cards was $50 then I would fully agree that VCP would be a waste for you, if you only collect raw cards then the service might be of little value to you also, Im sure there are plenty of other reason the service is not for everyone. For me as my card budget has increased each year, the value of VCP has greatly increased.

On one hand I hope most people dont use the pop reports or VCP as I feel like it gives me a chance to flip cards for a nice profit to help build my collection. At the same time I like to mention the value I get from a service like VCP so that it can stay in business and prosper, I did not enjoy the old days of having to keep my own spreadsheet of all the cards I was following, bleh.

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Posted By: NickM

A friend of mine has family in Plaquemines Parish, LA. After 2 years of fighting, their insurer paid out over $300K on the sports collectibles rider from their insurance policy due to Katrina leveling their house. They're still fighting on other riders.
I don't know if they had major graded cards that were lost or destroyed - the only items my friend mentioned to me were Ruth and Gehrig signed balls and a personalized signed photo of the husband with Pistol Pete, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if there were lots of graded cards in the mix.