Are UZIT cards as scarce as BROAD LEAF 460 cards ?

[tedzan]

Hey guys

Of course we've seen more UZIT cards than BROAD LEAF 460 cards. The numbers favor this observation.
More than twice as many UZIT subjects have been confirmed than BROAD LEAF 460 subjects.
However, the scarcity factor of these two backs is very close.


.......... 28 confirmed out of a possible 35 printed

........ 58 confirmed out of a possible 74 printed




TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[sb1]

The nicest Uzit's and BL 460 I have left. I have owned about an equal amount, at one time I had 5 BL 460's but that was because I pursued them. The BL 460 is quite a bit tougher than the Uzit in my opinion, about 2-1 Uzit's for BL 460 as the population reflects. Still Drum is much more popular and probably about as tough as BL 460 as they seem to not get resold. Both Drum and BL 460 are notoriously difficult to find centered on the back as well.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Hey guys

Of course we've seen more UZIT cards than BROAD LEAF 460 cards. The numbers favor this observation.
More than twice as many UZIT subjects have been confirmed than BROAD LEAF 460 subjects.
However, the scarcity factor of these two backs is very close.


.......... 28 confirmed out of a possible 35 printed

........ 58 confirmed out of a possible 74 printed




TED Z

T206 Reference
.

Ted, I think Jay touched on this in his post using the pop reports and
confirmed subjects for each back.

I know using the pop reports won't be a completely accurate number because
of the crossovers, crack outs ect... but I think between the two backs they
would be close enough to give a general idea.

Uzit = SGC 119 PSA 143 Total 262 @ 58 subjects = 4.51
Broad Leaf 460 SGC 46 PSA 37 Total 83 @ 28 subjects = 2.96

If you go by these numbers the BL460's would be 41.49% scarcer
than Uzit.

[Sean]

Regarding PSA pop reports: I think that PSA understates BL460s because for some reason they didn't distinguish between 350s and 460s in their pop reports for some time. I began a thread in 2013 about why there were only 350s in their pop reports. It turns out that PSA separated them on flips into 1910s and 1911s, but listed them all in the pop reports as BL350s.

I don't know when they broke out 460s as a separate group. I also don't know if they went back and corrected their pop reports, or only listed BL460s going forward from that point. If they only listed them going forward from the time they separated them in the reports, that would cause the numbers to be under reported.

I'm bad with links, so I'll just bump that old thread to the front page.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by Pat R

Ted, I think Jay touched on this in his post using the pop reports and
confirmed subjects for each back.

I know using the pop reports won't be a completely accurate number because
of the crossovers, crack outs ect... but I think between the two backs they
would be close enough to give a general idea.

Uzit = SGC 119 PSA 143 Total 262 @ 58 subjects = 4.51
Broad Leaf 460 SGC 46 PSA 37 Total 83 @ 28 subjects = 2.96

If you go by these numbers the BL460's would be 41.49% scarcer
than Uzit.

I don't agree with that the "262" number regarding actual UZIT cards. The real number is considerably less than 262, as UZIT's have been re-graded (or crossed-over) often.
If I can account for 2 re-grades in the Pop reports, you can bet that there are many, many more. Pop report data (PSA & SGC) regarding UZIT's is misleading as it lists many
more cards than actually exist in the real world. This kind of data skews any scarcity factor calculation when comparing these two rare backs.

The BROAD LEAF 460 Pop report data is less affected by this overstating problem, since many of the BL 460 cards are unique (1/1). Furthermore, we really do not know how
many BL 460 cards are in circulation, since PSA did not identify BL 460 cards for many years. Therefore, the PSA Pop report data on BL 460 cards is incomplete.

My opinion, after chasing UZIT's & BL 460's (amid many other tough T206 backs) for 35 years, is that these 2 scarce backs are equally rare with BL 460 having a slight edge.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by tedzan

I don't agree with that the "262" number regarding actual UZIT cards. The real number is considerably less than 262, as UZIT's have been re-graded (or crossed-over) often.
If I can account for 2 re-grades in the Pop reports, you can bet that there are many, many more. Pop report data (PSA & SGC) regarding UZIT's is misleading as it lists many
more cards than actually exist in the real world. This kind of data skews any scarcity factor calculation when comparing these two rare backs.

The BROAD LEAF 460 Pop report data is less affected by this overstating problem, since many of the BL 460 cards are unique (1/1). Furthermore, we really do not know how
many BL 460 cards are in circulation, since PSA did not identify BL 460 cards for many years. Therefore, the PSA Pop report data on BL 460 cards is incomplete.

My opinion, after chasing UZIT's & BL 460's (amid many other tough T206 backs) for 35 years, is that these 2 scarce backs are equally rare with BL 460 having a slight edge.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

Well at least we agree on something Ted. I don't think the 262 number for
the Uzit's is accurate either. I took the actual numbers from the pop reports
because just like the Uzit's there are crossovers with the BL460's too and I
think % wise with two rare backs like these the number of crossovers
would be close.

The recently discovered Cobb that sold this spring was crossed over
already and SGC still lists two 1/10's in their pop reports.
Cobb Broadleaf 460 SGC.jpgCobb Broadleaf 460 PSA.jpg

Here's a Rucker that was crossed.
Rucker BL460.jpg

and how many of the SGC's that were 1/1's do you think David Hall picked up
for his master set that are now in PSA holders but still in SGC's pop reports?


For as long as I can remember PSA had the Broad Leaf 460's in their
pop reports they just didn't have them separated from the 350's.

Here's an old pop report from early 2012 and they're in it 16-138 are BL460's
PSA BL pops 1 - Copy.jpg
PSA BL pops 2 - Copy.jpg
PSA BL pops 3 - Copy.jpg

[Rhotchkiss]

Scott, those are great looking cards. I think I saw the BL 460 at the National (I am the dude who bought the E107 Plank). Put the BL 460 in your next auction!

[Baseballcrazy62]

Just a quick question from a relative newcomer to collecting tobacco era cards. Is there a reason no one mentions Beckett’s pop reports? Seems that PSA and SGC are always quoted as sources but never Beckett. Just wondering.

[t206kid]

I of course agree that the pop reports are not the end all be all given cross overs and failure to denote proper back or card variation. But pointing out one-off errors I believe is unhelpful given the magnitude of the pop reports as a data tool. Comparing what the pop report lists for both Uzits and BL460s is going to have a margin of error, but is a useful comparative tool which is what I was getting at here:

Uzit = SGC 119 PSA 143 Total 262 @ 58 subjects = 4.51
Broad Leaf 460 SGC 46 PSA 37 Total 83 @ 28 subjects = 2.96

This ~40% difference in scarcity is a pretty big difference to just quickly explain away and conclude that they're pretty similar.