Is it just me...or are pretty much all card sales falling off?

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Posted By: paulstratton

Jim VB,

Your theory would be correct if I was actually winning what I was bidding on, but I'm not.

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Posted By: Ricky Y

Maybe its seasonal..or a market correction..either way it doesn't seem like I got any bargains at least on the ones I have been buying...

Ricky Y

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Yipes! Peter C. and I agree.

Barry: I'm busily buying up beachfront property: in Palm Springs...It's only a matter of time.

Al: I have the same experience: Buying or Selling the cards are worth a mint. A gold mint buying; a chocolate mint when I sell.

It's Monday; is GAI back in business or did I have the wrong Monday?

Thanks, enjoy Foghat!

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Posted By: Bob

T207 red Cycle backs, just as I am collecting the subset, have gone whacko.
If you really think the prices are falling, now might be a good time to get rid of those E94s and E97s
I echo the sentiments of a poster above, the prices on the cards I am bidding have NOT fallen off, they continue to climb. Am I a trend setter or just the unluckiest guy in the hobby

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Guys,
No big mystery... EBay sales on regular issues almost always slow down during the silly season. Couple that with the crash in the housing market and the increase in core commodities and it's not that big of a surprise.
2008 will probably be an up and down year until Wall Street and the country find out who's going to be running things in Washington.

Be well Brian

PS I have gotten some of my best EBay deals during the silly season(especially over the last 4 years)

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Posted By: CN

I don,t know about most of you but if you are invested in the stock market it is down 10% since October 9 after losing 237 pts. Today. That has to play some sort of factor in card prices being down. CN

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The S&P 500 is up 1.6% year to date and up 0.6% for the past three months

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Posted By: peter chao

Brian W.,

I agree with you, at this time of the year, people will buy fewer big ticket items for their hobby and buy more gifts for others.

The proper way to figure out the direction the card market is going is to do what real estate people do. They compare sales in Nov '06 with sales in Nov '07.

Peter C.

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Posted By: JK

Barry,

Dont worry about your house. Try this experiment - take a glass and put ice into it (the ice represents the polar ice caps). Fill to the rim with water (representing our oceans). Let the cup sit. Notice that as the ice melts, the water does not overflow the glass.

Sea levels may be rising. However, there is no "scientific consensus" that global warming is the cause of or that it will cause damaging climate change. Claims that there is such a consensus mischaracterize the scientific research.

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Posted By: leon

First of all I agree that it seems shilling may get the best of my buys and the worst of my sales (none). I was lamenting to Jeff L not long ago, after many of my ebay sales got me creamed in the wallet. Shilling could be an issue....but overall, as I stated, I feel many cards are off somewhat.....Not a huge deal to a collector but folks that make their livelihood better be a little more careful. I think it has been irrational exuberance (Greenspan, I believe) for the last 5-6 years and we are coming back to reality.

On the global warming...I am not so worried about ocean front property in Dallas as I am the depleting of our ecosystem. It really is a bad deal for wildlife and flora. There is a ripple effect and I think our great, great...add some more "greats" grandchildren, could have some issues because of it....best regards

edited spelling...yuck

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Posted By: Jim VB

JK,

Your experiment is flawed. If the ice in you glass extends OVER the rim of the glass when it is frozen, it will indeed overflow the glass when it melts.

The part of the ice cap currently below water is not a concern for us. The parts currently higher in elevation than the sea level... bigger issue.

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Posted By: robert

Tbob,

When have T207 cycles been cheap? Don't remember that. T207s have been pretty hot though, thanks to Lionel Carter and a couple other large hoards that have hit the market.

As far as the E94s, I think most of the group I sold last night went for pretty fair prices. The 1s have come back down to where they were a couple of years ago though.

Rob

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Posted By: barrysloate

Josh- that's good to know. I'm cancelling my flood insurance!

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Posted By: JK

JimVB - with all due respect, you are incorrect and it is easily proven.

Try the experiment tonight - except for the condensation that may drip off the glass, the melting ice will not cause the glass to overflow (better yet, use a cup so you dont get any condensation). I will concede, however, that when chunks of ice fall off of a land based object such as a glacier, it will cause an rise in the sea level because more mass is being added to the water (just like if you threw an extra ice cube in the full cup it would overflow).

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Posted By: JK

Jim - Here is an article to check out. The quoted section is from the article which originally appeared in the USA Today about an ice shelf that fell into the sea.

"There are no doubts about one point: The breakup and eventual melting of an ice shelf, like the melting of icebergs, does not increase sea levels for the same reason melting ice in a glass of water does not make the glass overflow, the ice is already floating."


http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/coldscience/2004-05-26-peninsula-conf_x.htm

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Posted By: ernest reyes

JK & Robert: On Global Warming: actually, its the glaciers in Greenland that scares everybody. That ice sits on land and therefore is not already accounted for in current sea levels. When or if it melts that would cause sea levels to rise significantly.

On the economy: none of the numbers i've seen are encouraging at all. The subprime mess is only going to get worse. FT has a recent article about a hedge fund that has reaped 1000% return by shorting subprime linked securities this past year. That manager stated:

"In his letter, Mr Lahde said he expected the collapse in value of subprime mortgage-linked securities to be repeated for bonds backed by commercial property loans in a deep recession – which he also predicts.

“Our entire banking system is a complete disaster,” he wrote. “In my opinion, nearly every major bank would be insolvent if they marked their assets to market.” He also said he would be putting some of his own profits into gold and other precious metals."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b6160be-9b80-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

scary stuff out there

http://dodgersblueheaven.blogspot.com/
http://imageevent.com/ernestreyes
http://mywantlist.blogspot.com/

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Posted By: Rob Dewolf

On Global Warming: actually, its the glaciers in Greenland that scares everybody.

No, not everybody.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Right now the economy scares me worse than glaciers.

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Posted By: Bob

http://tinyurl.com/26kbn7

http://tinyurl.com/2y8f83



Pretty healthy prices for SGC 40s.
I remember when you could get T207 Cycles for less than Broadleafs, it hasn't been that long ago, everyone wanted Broadleafs. Then was it revealed that Anonymous' are the toughest backs, Cycles dropped in to 3rd place. Now everyone and his brother wants Cycles.
As far as the E94s go, I think 30s and 40s are still high as ever. It just depends on who it is and (sometimes) what color background. Throw a violet on in decent shape and the prices go nuts.

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Posted By: ernest reyes

I agree Barry. The economy has me very worried. Glaciers.. not so much. Nevertheless, I'm keeping a close eye on even my money market funds. Keep in mind, even those very liquid assets may have invested in sub-prime mortgage backed securities. I've called my broker about it and was assured they did not make those investments, but then, in the back of my mind, I keep thinking- remember what's happening to Merrill Lynch right now? The fear of enron type machinations within the financial markets worry me.

On the card side: card collecting is based on discretionary income. If the economy slides then I would expect discretionary income to decrease significantly overall. This would naturally lead to lower prices since the pool of buyers would get smaller and the amount they would spend would also shrink. For those with a lot of extra dough the next few years may prove to be a great buying opportunity.

http://dodgersblueheaven.blogspot.com/
http://imageevent.com/ernestreyes
http://mywantlist.blogspot.com/

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Posted By: barrysloate

Melting glaciers are bad too, but they are probably twenty years away.

I have to say that despite the gloomy economic forecasts, the card market is holding up surprisingly well. Now that might change, and we all agree there are some soft areas, but there is still plenty of interest in quality collectibles.

Yes, prices are inconsistent to be sure. But on average I have no complaints. Six months from now I may feel differently.

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Posted By: cmoking

"I may not be able to get the G.I. Joe with the kung fu grip and my wife may not want to...wait, that was Trading Places..."

Thanks for the tip Adam, I just bought some pork bellies. I plan to use the profits to buy some cards in January.

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Posted By: keyway

Just remember, you are in the best collectables market there is. Antiques and other collectables are droping fast, but sports collectables live on. As long as sports are being played this market will continue. Yes it will have some ups and downs, but it will always come back. Sports is so big in this country that I don't worry about it at all. Besides it's a lot of fun.

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Posted By: JimB

Like others here, I have not noticed a downturn in the cards I am actively collecting.
jimB

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

TBob, could you please edit your ebay links to tinyurl's. Thanks.

Scrolling left to right makes this forum a hassle to read.

I suggest anyone that wants to post long URL's in this forum visit this site:

www.tinyurl.com

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Posted By: Rick McQuillan

I think the country is going into a deep depression. The smart move would be for all of you to sell off your cards right away and stock up on food and blankets,

By the way, I would be willing to trade you candles, flashlights, and canned food for your cards.

Rick

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Posted By: Steve Clark

Using an anecdotal evidence from this fall, the sales of 1957 Topps baseball are up 20-35% from a couple of years ago. I think it all depends on what is being sold and how much demand there is.

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Posted By: Bob

Dan- done.
Bob

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

Six recent examples that look strong to me......

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Joe-Tinker-Bat-Off-Shoulder-PSA-6-50-50-Sovereign_W0QQitemZ220171180902

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-T-206-Christy-Mathewson-Dark-Cap-PSA-5-Sovereign_W0QQitemZ220171182605

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-T-206-Ty-Cobb-Bat-On-Shoulder-PSA-4-Sovereign-350_W0QQitemZ220170802947

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-T-206-Cy-Young-Bare-Hand-Shows-PSA-4-Sovereign-HOF_W0QQitemZ220170799962

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-GEORGE-BROWN-WASHINGTON-SOVEREIGN-PSA-4_W0QQitemZ230188373418

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-JOE-TINKER-PORTRAIT-PSA-4-SOVEREIGN-BACK_W0QQitemZ160177619315

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Thanks Bob!

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Posted By: Joe D.

just a little tech tip

you can make any link smaller yourself -
without visiting tiny url.
It is quick and simple.

In my example below just take out the space after the first <
take out the space before the last >
(I had to put the spaces in to show you the text).


basically you drop your link in there where you see the "http://....."
and you can put any custom text for the link name as short as you like it (where I have 'click here')

Of course you can put text before and after it....


-----HERE IS ALL THE TEXT YOU NEED TO CREATE A LITTLE "CLICK HERE" LINK ---------

< a href="http://www.internetville.com/"&gt;
click here</a >

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To visit my site

click here


(just remember to take out the spaces mentioned, and insert your own link - and you are golden)


Regards,
Joe

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

When you "cut & past" the ebay URL.....you simply look for the end of the lot number and do a highlight
sweep from that end digit leftward to the "http" lettering.

The resulting abbreviated LINK is all anyone needs to click on to....to retrieve the ebay lot of interest.

Here is an example.......

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-GEORGE-BELL-BROOKLYN-SOVEREIGN_W0QQitemZ140167964151

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< DO A BLUE HIGHLIGHT AND SWEEP LEFTWARD FROM HERE....^

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Posted By: quan

joe d that's way OT. this is not a junior college internet course...i come on the board to learn when the next ny dinner is or the idea of a coffee table book about coffee tables...not urls and https!

an email to leon is forthcoming...

quan

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Posted By: barry arnold

nearing the completion of the beloved 206s, the stuff still looks steep to me.

best,
barry

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

I have been following ebay since 2000, as dumb as it sounds as Brian W. put it the "silly season" has been good to me in both buying and selling. The selling season seems to go through the middle of January. I did have a couple of nice pick ups last night, but Sundays to me seem to be the best day to pick up bargains, some cards tend to fallow the cracks with all listings.

Lee

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Posted By: JimB

Is it wrong to hope the market completely tanks for the month of December while I buy up lots of stuff in upcoming auctions?
JimB

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Posted By: barry arnold

JimB,
I had a similar feeling while bidding tonight on mastro.
Now, i'm doing a little better and remembering my studies on the
bodhisattvas.
I guess the cards do become a wee bit too much of an attachment, don't they.

best,
barry

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Posted By: Fred C

Lots of possible factors: economy, Holiday gift giving season is upon us, lack of confidence in the card board we all trust.

I've said it before, I'll continue to say it... I hope the card market tanks... I'll be able to add more to my collection.

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Posted By: Dave F

A three to four month crash I'd be fine with....a complete crash where the values wouldn't return, I'd be sick.

I'd at least kick myself for having started spending the money befor the crash.

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Posted By: Alan

What would realistically happen if there was a complete crash in the vintage card market & values of cards never rebounded ?

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Posted By: Dustan Hedlin

Alan,
One thing that would happen is that I would be able to strictly collect Cobb. Nothing but Cobb.

I am a very small fish in this vintage pond, but I have been in the market for a few nice T206's, and prices are getting closer and closer to my buy point. I have money set aside specifically for a T206 purchase. While many others slow down their spending to buy Christmas presents (hopefully), I will be able to place my normal bids, and win when the price comes down just a hair more.

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Posted By: Joe D.

I hope you join us for the next NYC dinner.

When is it?

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Posted By: barrysloate

We need to get a date on the calendar.

And while Quan is more than welcome to join us, I think he has a pretty long commute.

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Posted By: Dan Kravitz

I think... The common cards from common sets are no doubt lower than they were 6 months ago, and headed even lower. High grade cards are flat or lower (and perceived to be trimmed by many of us), they could go either way depending on who is bidding at any given time. Rare/scarce cards will stay where they are and probably better off sold privately. Crazy scarce/desirable cards will always be in high demand by guys who have sick money and will sell at a premium. Collect what you like and not items that are perceived to be valuable, and it probably won't matter all that much. DK

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Posted By: Joann

JK, Robert and Ernest,

JK - you are right that polar ice will not raise sea levels as it melts because it is floating, and this is proven out simply in a glass at home as you describe.

And Ernest is also right in that Greenland is a much different problem because the ice is not floating. Therefore, when it melts and runs off the underlying land mass it will, in fact, raise the water level.

But Greenland is not the biggest concern for this type of ice melt. The big kahuna is Antarctica. It, too, is a land mass that is covered with ice just like Greenland. It has some floating ice around the edges where the ice builds out into the sea, but this is minimal compared to the amount of land ice.

Antarctica is huge compared to Greenland, and the ice much deeper. A complete melt-off of Greenland would raise average sea level something like 7 meters. A complete melt of Antarctica would raise it something like 200 meters. It would change the world.

If you look at a US map with elevation lines of 200m above sea level, look where they fall and that's basically where the new shoreline would be.

Florida - pretty much gone.

Eastern seaboard - significanty moved westward, with all major cities - DC, NYC, Boston, Philly, Savannah - all gone.

West coast - same thing but less movement of shoreline because of proximity of mountainous reasons to some stretches of the shore. But major cities - LA, SD, SF, Seattle - all gone.

Gulf shore - gone including NO and the coastal cities of Texas.

Think you're ok if you are in the interior? Not really. Because the rise in sea level would extend up the Mississippi from the south and into the Great Lakes from the east. St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago all gone.

The country was formed on commerce that hugely favored waterways as the fastest and cheapest transportation mode, and to this day many of our major metropolitan areas are associated with bodies of water or large intracontinental rivers - and all of these will be affected by an Anarctic melt off.

Sorry for the hijack. I just really find this interesting. The subject of WHETHER global warming can happen to this extent is still being debated (although uselessly in my opinion - this stuff was all but proven 20 years ago when I was getting an MS in Meterology from U of Md).

But the fact that this is what would happen if the average temperature were raised by enough (I don't remember how much it would take) is not being debated - ice cap volumes, associated sea level rises, and current elevations above sea level are all straightforward measurements and estimates, and there is no serious challenge to this outcome.

Joann

Oh, and it does seem card sales are falling off, but not for very long to suggest a digging in. And the exchange upthread about which New York newspapers you guys read was hilarious. Good for both of you for keeping it in good fun and easy teasing.

Oh again. And don't get me going on the whole effect of global warming on crop-growing areas. Each degree of temperature increase, over time, adds a set number of days to the growing season. At some point the most fertile crop-growing regions in North America would migrate north from the US to Canada, and Russia could very well replace us as the bread-basket of the world. Think about that one in terms of national security.

OK. Now I'm done.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Economic jitters and seasonal shopping patterns may well have an effect on the market for vintage baseball cards, which are basically a luxury item, in the short term. In the long term though, I think, the health of the market will be determined by the size and motivation of the collector base. Are there more new people getting into the hobby now, or are there more who are jumping ship? Are current collectors aggressively adding to their collections, or are they tending to downsize their collecting interests? Looking beyond short term fluctuations in the market, the larger question is: how many collectors are there, and what is their motivation level to acquire more cards? If prices across the board have indeed 'softened' in recent months, perhaps interest in the hobby is waning a bit. In that case, whether it will rebound in the future is anybody's guess. My guess is that it will remain relatively stable.

Just looking at one niche in the market that I am familiar with -- high grade 1933 Goudeys -- I have seen three or four major sets being sold off within the past two years, but there were enough other collectors out there to gobble them all up. Scarce commons are still fought over and sometimes bring outrageous prices, but other than that, the cards usually bring, on the average, about book value. That includes big ticket items such as Ruth and Gehrig cards. I don't see any significant shift in market value taking place.

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Posted By: JK

Joann,

Actually, I think the estimate is 200 ft or 61 meters if Antartica were to melt. However, I dont believe there is really any concern there as the average temperature in Antartica is -37 degrees. In the last 100 years the earth's temperature has increased about half a degree Celsius. At that rate, its going to take quite a while before Antartica nears a temperature that can melt its ice (estimated to be about 7000 feet thick).

I also disagree that the question of whether this is even possible is not debatable. I dont know when you got your MS, but Im sure you would agree that what we "knew" to be true yesterday, may not be what we "know" today. Science is constantly progressing. 500 years ago, we thought the world was flat. 100 years ago, doctors were using leaches to treat illnesses. My point is, what was not debatable 10 years ago may very well be debatable today. There are many studies out there on this subject. For every report that says sea levels will rise dramatically over the next 100 years, there is another that says it would take fully 20,000 years to raise sea levels even a single meter.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Josh- my doctor still treats me with leeches. Is that bad?

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Posted By: Jimmy

I have seen an up and down trend more this fall then in the past few years and it will most likely continue into the winter. The interest is still there and many folks are still looking, just seems to be a soft market in general. Its not just cards either, but other sports items as well.

Jimmy

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

We have been there before.......

Any where along the East coast where there are vast areas of "scrub" Pines (i.e., Jersey Pinelands, Eastern Long Island, Florida, etc.)....
and, the Mississippi-Missouri River's basins have all been underwater Millions of years ago.

Therefore, if what you are saying comes to be....it is all part of NATURE's macro-patterns....and, not in anyway related to human activity.
How can we be so "vain" to think we can affect this planet to the degree that some of these "global warming" advocates are telling us.
Recent Meteorological records of just this past Century show that the warmest years where in the early 1930's (during the "dust bowl" era).

In all due respect....I ask anyone....did we have gas-guzzling SUV's....or atmosphere polluting Jet aircraft....or whatever other so-called
polluting sources back then ?

And, I don't fly much and my wife and I drive Honda Civic's.....so, I aint a skeptic on "global warming" because of our lifestyle.

T-Rex TED