High end Heritage lots, which would you rather have?

[Steve D]

I'd rather have the Clemente, only because I already have a T206 set.


Steve

[Scocs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO PSA is going to contribute to the madness by not slabbing any more. Since a 10 is an arbitrary grade anyhow, not hard to bring that about.

Wouldn't that put PSA out of business...?

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO PSA is going to contribute to the madness by not slabbing any more. Since a 10 is an arbitrary grade anyhow, not hard to bring that about.

Now, if PSA decides to not give out as many or any more 10s. That really drives up the values. Maybe the buyers with all the money paying record prices know something that we don't.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO PSA is going to contribute to the madness by not slabbing any more. Since a 10 is an arbitrary grade anyhow, not hard to bring that about.

They have to give a 10 out once in a while, otherwise who is going to pay the resubmission fees?

[mark evans]

I realize this is not an option, but I would be thrilled to have a Clemente rookie in PSA 7 and the remaining $120k in cash. I am certainly not criticizing other collectors/investors but I don't think I will ever appreciate the disparity in card values at the upper grades, especially given the inherent subjectivity in the grading process.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

They have to give a 10 out once in a while, otherwise who is going to pay the resubmission fees?

When is the last Mantle that got a 9? They can shut down whatever they want to shut down.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Scocs

Wouldn't that put PSA out of business...?

Not at all. They are a monopoly, and people overwhelmingly support the product and for good reason.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

When is the last Mantle that got a 9?

A while I'm sure. I remember reading about a 55 koufax that got a psa 10 not too long ago though.

[botn]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

A while I'm sure. I remember reading about a 55 koufax that got a psa 10 not too long ago though.

There goes your theory Peter. Try again!

[steve B]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I just looked up the population for PSA 10 Ozzies. Total pop is 4. Do you honestly believe the guy who won this card owns the other 3 and was trying to run the price of this card up to increase their value? That seems very unlikely.

I have heard the rumors of this pump and dump strategy. The cards this might make this strategy pay off are cards like the 86 Jordan, 55 Clemente, and 52 Mantle that have a high enough population and still hold some value at lower grades. Not 70s rookies with single digit PSA 10 populations.

The sale is probably not someone pumping up prices, but could be. And yes, that sort of ploy works better when you can gather up a lot of whatever you're boosting.

It's really easy with collectibles where the "value" is driven more by emotion than anything else. An almost purely demand driven market.

So having a 10 Ozzie Smith rookie sell for 33K puts it out of reach for many collectors, and they have to "settle" for a 9....Checking Ebay sold listings shows they're currently under 1000. With a sale of a 10 for 33, how long before they're higher?

Of course, while looking I found an article from 2012 about a 10 sold for 17,523 making it just over 20 with the bp. And then the 9s were only about 3-400. So both have just about doubled since then. I don't have access to price records between then and now, but I'd bet the jump for the 9s came fairly soon after the 20K sale. There'd be a bit of a delay for the bins at the old prices to sell, then there'd be a rise for a few months while dealers pushed the new inventory to a plateau which would stabilize.

The current price for a 9 is actually somewhat more expensive compared to a 10 than it was in 2012. If I had the money, I'd pick up a couple 9s soon.

Steve B

[Peter_Spaeth]

With only 4 10s not sure the 10 will push up the 9s of which there are well over 200.

[Peter_Spaeth]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-87-Flee...p2047675.l2557

AND

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-FLEER-S...p2047675.l2557

2.5x on a common as dirt card in 2 months????

[steve B]

And If I had them raw I doubt I'd send them in figuring the centering was too far off to get a really high grade.

Agreed about the 4 vs 200+ that should keep the pricing separated. The amount the 9s have closed the gap is fairly small, 1/50th of a 10 then and 1/39th now unless the 33K doesn't include the bp. I'll have to remember to check again in a month or two to see if 9s have come up any.

I wrote a paper in college about something similar, back then coin pricing for gold coins that weren't special was done by the spot price, which many dealers got from a hobby paper. Laziness being what it is, most wouldn't reprice their inventory for a while. The paper proposed profiting off the lag time in pricing, when things went up there was at least a week or two of lag before the dealers raised the price, and when it went down there was the same lag. Potentially like having a crystal ball for someone focused and active with some bankroll. The prof didn't understand it, but gave me a B based on the length of the paper. "It could be genius, or it could be the worst idea ever. But I can't understand it well enough to tell. so you get a B because it's about as long as a B paper." Nice having an economics prof who had a degree from behind the iron curtain.

Steve B