Question for Front/Back collectors

[Rascal1010]

Just have a general question for front/Back combination collectors on determining rough idea of how many examples of a card are in the hobby. I know the PSA population reports are not accurate, nor is SGC, and SGC makes it difficult by not noting factory differences in their population report. I have gone through Scott Reader's % of population by backs in respect to the overall production, and his data does correspond with fairly close with data that I have pulled from PSA's population report for distribution %, there are always a few outliers. My question is there a factor that anyone uses based off PSA's population to help determine a rough idea of how many of that front back combination are actually in the hobby, or do you have another way of calculating rough estimates on total populations?

Example #1 - Rube Kroh Sweet Caporal 350/25 - PSA shows a pop. of 2, I know there are more than 2 in the hobby, because I own one in an SGC holder. I know this card is also a very low population card, so wondering how many really do exist yet. My guess is PSA's report could be taken by 4X or 5X and it would be close to the total number in the hobby, between cards in SGC, BVG & raw that aren't accounted for in PSA's population report, but am hoping for some feedback from some other collectors on what they have experienced. My 4X - 5X may be way off on what's really out in the real world, it is just my estimate.

Example # 2 - Evers (Chicago on Shirt) Sweet Caporal 350/30 PSA pop. 79. By my calculation using a 4X factor that would mean there are roughly 316 total of this front back combination in the hobby.

Hopefully some other members have a better way of determining an estimate of how many of a front/back combination really exist. Any feedback is welcome!

[Rhotchkiss]

Oh man Steve, estimating how many factory and series variations of Sweet Caps and Piedmonts is near impossible. At least with Carolina Brights or EPDG, Tolstoi the back is the back and you are not dealing with series and factories; and with Cycle, Sov, etc at least its only Series. When it comes to Pied and SC, who knows how many went through pop reports without anyone paying attention to factory or series, let alone both. In fact, for this reason I am sure Pied fact 42 cards are probably a bit more plentiful than generally reflected in pop reports.

I can tell you from experience that Cards with a Sweet Cap factory 25 of Series 150 and 350, have been some of the hardest for me to find. For this reason, I believe they are pretty rare and much less plentiful than their factory 30 counterparts. But finding a real, actual number for any front combo is likely a herculean task. I guess that is why you are asking!! I cant help then, but wanted to comment

Ryan

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I am sure Pied fact 42 cards are probably a bit more plentiful than generally reflected in pop reports.



Ryan

+1. I agree with this in particular.

[Ronnie73]

Interesting question. As far as regular "single" type backs like Tolstoi, Polar Bear, EPDG etc.. I don't really have a formula to determine ungraded cards. I tend to compare population numbers with other cards with the same back and from the same print group to get an idea of whats more rare.

As far as the Sweet Caporal Factory 25's. Since they only started keeping track of them a few years ago, I use a ratio of population. I look at PSA's numbers for the same card for Factory 25 and 30. If theres 2 for Factory 25 and 20 for Factory 30, then I know it's 1 Factory 25 for every 10 Factory 30's graded. So if SGC graded 50 Sweet Caporal's from 1910 (350 Subjects), then I guess 5 of those would be Factory 25's. Then I just add up all the numbers. Don't forget to subtract the number of Factory 25 and 30's graded from the PSA number total for that card and then use the same ratio to determine the PSA number for pre Factory Number graded cards.

Be careful using population numbers of HOF's to get full population totals. More HOF's are graded than non HOF's so your 4x or 5x would be different for HOF cards. Then you also have to factor print runs. The 6 Super Prints would have the most cards in the population overall.

[steve B]

Just something to keep in mind.

When I was going through the population reports for patterns, what I saw was that in a well defined group like the 150 Only cards the HOFers were graded about twice as often. Checking it, it seemed to be generally true across the whole set.
The key cards are far more likely to be graded, but it's hard to put a number to that.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Sean

+1. I agree with this in particular.

Although they probably are hidden in collections not being known for it's tough back, from someone who used to collect a lot of the rarer T206 backs, the Pied 42's aren't an everyday item. At least not from what I have seen.

[kmac32]

I am a T205 cubs front/ reverse collector. Fortunately for me there was a master list of T205 front/. Reverse examples. I figured out those that were Cubs and went from there. There are 151 possible Cubs cards and I have 148 all SGC graded. Only missing Brown Drum back, phiester hindu back, and Kling Hindu back. Huge endeavor but well worth it.