T205 Pied 42's gaining ground while others lose

[T205 GB]

I have noticed the 42's finally gaining ground on the other backs. The HOF'ers have gained the most but even the commons are 2-3x's normal backs. Very exciting for the 205 community since we always seem to be the ugly step sister of the 206's.

People are out of touch with reality when it comes to Cycle backs for some reason. Not really sure why it's like that when the market is showing little to no premium for them. Only the Sp's in my opinion should carry a premium since it is the toughest back for them of the 3 backs they are printed with and probably less than 5 copies of Cycle backs are known for the 12 players. Commons are commonly found with Cycle backs in enough quantity to not need or create a demand for premiums.

AB's have held steady with the HOF'ers gaining ground fast. I can remember buying HOF'ers in low grade (A-3) a yr or two back for just over market price. Now these same cards are commanding 3-4x's as much. Hope to see the commons catch up soon. The Green AB's have caught the attention of collectors and caused a small increase in the price. This is understandable since the cards with Green AB backs are the toughest back to be found for those cards. The Black AB's have held steady with small increases pending players.


I am interested to hear any feedback on what other collectors are seeing and what they think the future is bringing.

[Econteachert205]

I'm up to like 165 of the set. Have no Pied 42, cycle rare backs etc. I am not a back collector though I would like to have one example of each. One of the things I like about 05's is the lack of concern about backs. With the ad being smaller, I think it maybe makes it matter less? I'm collecting them for the fronts and the bios, not the ads.

[bn2cardz]

I was looking for and collecting P42, but they just weren't interesting enough. I have gone with AB and Cycles because I like the Adverstiser rareness more than factory number rareness. I would go with BL, Hindu, and Drum but those are harder to find.

If you take the list compiled by Josh in another thread, even hassan 30 is harder to find than Cycle, but there are other Hassans just like there are other Piedmonts, yet Cycle only comes in the one factory number but still has numbers half of the back before it (sovereign). I still do have P42 in my collection, but it has the same affect as looking at a regular Piedmont.

Originally Posted by Wite3

I have some time this afternoon and want to share a bit of information about the T205 advertising backs. Specifically, the #'s of backs seen as a percentage of total backs. Now, keep in mind that this is NOT all t205 backs ever but as most of you know, I tend to keep information and follow the backs pretty closely. I compiled sales data from ebay, major (and some minor) auction houses, shows (rare now), and even some private sales and data provided by other t205 collectors. My methods I feel are fairly accurate and give a decent representation of the hobby but I certainly missed some things.

The first thing I will post is the last time I publicly shared information on percentages. This was from 2005. Then I will show you what I have now (through 2012). In the last 7 years several large hordes and collections have come to market and several collectors have opened their collections to me. In 2005 the sample size was just over 3100 cards. Now I have data on 22000!! I did not include blank backs in this either. At the bottom, I put a bit of my own analysis but draw your own conclusions.

So...here we go...first the cards from 2005 for those who do not remember

Advertiser Color Fact. Code # of cards seen %Total
Piedmont Blue 25 512 16.4
Polar Bear Blue 473 15.2
Sweet Cap. Red 451 14.5
Sweet Cap. Black 25 321 10.3
Sweet Cap. Black 42 309 9.9
Hassan Green 649 307 9.9
Honest Long Cut Black 307 9.9
Sovereign Green 191 6.1
Cycle Black 107 3.4
Hassan Green 30 99 3.2
American Beauty Black 17 .55
American Beauty Green 8 .26
Piedmont Blue 42 6 .19
Broadleaf Black 2 .06
Broadleaf Green 2 .06
Hindu Brown 2 .06
Drum Brown 0 .00

Total 205s taken for this research: 3114

Now the data from 2012.

Advertiser Color Fact. Code # of cards seen %Total
Piedmont Blue 25 4167 18.9
Polar Bear Blue 3524 16.0
Sweet Cap. Red 3071 14.0
Sweet Cap. Black 25 2125 9.7
Sweet Cap. Black 42 2053 9.3
Hassan Green 649 1761 8.0
Honest Long Cut Black 1739 7.9
Sovereign Green 1580 7.2
Cycle Black 718 3.3
Hassan Green 30 496 2.3
Piedmont Blue 42 205 .93
American Beauty Green 189 .86
American Beauty Black 163 .74
Broadleaf Black 80 .36
Broadleaf Green 71 .32
Hindu Brown 44 .20
Drum Brown 27 .12

Total: 22013

Looking at the two charts you can see a few things. First, the common backs remained relatively the same except the %'s. I can see that Sovereign has increased a bit due to some recent finds while Piedmont 25 has increased a great deal. It is by far the most common back. The rare backs have been selling a bit more often of late including the American Beauties. The Green has moved ahead of the Black there. Also Piedmont 42s have jumped ahead of the American Beauties. In 2005, I had only seen a handful of hindus and no drums. I knew they were around but did not have any data. A few "recent" finds (incl. the St. Louis drum find) have added a bunch of numbers to them. Drum is still the king in rarity with hindu and broadleaf green(khaki) close behind. I am still surprised I do not see Hassan 30s more often.

Lastly, I want to put the caveat out there that this is my data alone and others may disagree. That is fine and I know this is not perfect but I do FEEL that this is a good representation of the back breakdown for T205s.

Joshua

[RGold]

My only T205. Sorry for the small scan, but it is Factory 42. Am I rich yet?

[T205 GB]

Ron that's a sweet Coby there. I am sure you would get a nice premium for that card.

[RGold]

Thanks, it's a little short but my understanding is that they ran smaller from that factory. No?

Or whatever is going on at the top of the reverse could be the problem. Never could get an answer from GAI.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by RGold

Thanks, it's a little short but my understanding is that they ran smaller from that factory. No?

Or whatever is going on at the top of the reverse could be the problem. Never could get an answer from GAI.

I have never heard of any cards other than AB's being cut different. As far as the call GAI made I would say it is accurate.

[Republicaninmass]

Andrew, your AB's aren't thinner, like the t206's?

[Centauri]

One way to judge availability is to see what is up for sale on eBay. I started looking closely at t205 in January. Most backs are easy to find, American Beauty commands a premium of about 2x, but a dozen or so can be found for sale at any time. Piedmont 42 can be found. I had not heard of Hassan 30 prior to this post, so I can't speak to that. I do not see much premium for Cycle.

I have seen 3 Broadleafs on eBay. 2 are currently for sale - and both asking for about a 10x-15X multiplier. I saw 1 Drum that was up for a couple months, asking $1300 for a PSA 1 common. I have never seen a Hindu on eBay.

All of the above is my experience, FWIW.

[dog*dirt]

I think that once you start to look at T205s day after day and year after year you may notice that some front/back combinations are quite common while some are quite tough.

The data shown by Josh is really good imo as a general rule of scarcity.

Here are a few of my favorite cards from the last year or so.

[asoriano]

Never get tired of seeing that Bransfield.

[Econteachert205]

Great cards Andrew, love the brans field and bresnahan!

[dog*dirt]

Thanks guys. How about how the Matty Cycle (yes I know its a variation) selling for crazy money and they come up for sale frequently.Trying to find an AB Matty was and is much more difficult.

[Econteachert205]

Marty cycle is I think a byproduct of people needed to get their master sets in order. I'm not paying for that or a hobby no stats so I'm fine with the basic set and keep my money for other things.

[EvilKing00]

Pied 42's are pretty rare imo, i buy them when ever i see them. I do agree that josh's list is spot on. But if we are talking for sale, thats different, as some collectors just hold their stuff.

Talking for sale only below-

Over the last 2 years i have seen l more ab's than pied 42's, i have also seen more drums (4) than hindus (1) & blank's (0)

I also noticed more Cycles than hassan 30's

Again i go with josh's list over all, with 1 caviat, i think the pied 42's may be more rare, maybe. But im no expert, would love to hear if josh has anymore info

[Wite3]

Okay guys...the list is still pretty accurate...That list is cards seen for sale. If you take actual sales data (which I keep pretty accurate data on) and prices realized (not listed for), some things have popped up.

The reason Cycle seems easy is that there were two rather large finds of Cycle cards a few years back and even a decent find (about 30) happened about four or five months ago (maybe longer).

Piedmont 42 seems to be scarce but I still think that might be a bit of a function of people not always realizing they have one. Don't get me wrong, they are tough. I own about 50-60 of them and have been pursuing them for about 15 years (before most people realized Piedmont had two factory numbers!). The prices have crept up a bit but I think that is also a function of the set as a whole creeping up.

Last year, most of my p-f-g commons I bought were between $12-$15 with common backs. P42s were around $15-$25 but now are a little higher. Of course, I just bought a p42 for $16 about two weeks ago so it is always in flux.

I have seen most prices rise a bit over the last six months (darn!). American Beauty has increased a great deal but I think that is also more people trying for the rarer backs. Broadleaf has increased a great deal as well. I think Hindu is still strong and has increased but not as much as others. There is very little data on Hindu (although Hunts had a few the last year) and about the same on Drum (I think there were less than 10 total combined sales year to date on those two combined). Never mind a blank back.

Hassan 30 seems pretty difficult. I rarely see them for sale anymore and wonder if they are truly a tougher back. There are always a few on ebay (several have been there for years too) but not that many. I still think my data is accurate on that one.

As an aside...we all know that the stray line of stats on the Moran is from Mattern's card...did you know that the stray line of stats on the Wallace no cap/2 lines card is from Miller's card? That typesetter needed some help.

Just my thoughts and observances (and I do not only track ebay, btw...I spend a great deal of time watching website sales/listings, auctions, etc.)

Joshua

[familytoad]

Originally Posted by RGold

Thanks, it's a little short but my understanding is that they ran smaller from that factory. No?

Or whatever is going on at the top of the reverse could be the problem. Never could get an answer from GAI.

RGold, you have to be patient, they don't open until Monday

Other random thoughts:

• I agree about Pied42, tough but not interesting to me.
• Hassan 30 I hadn't thought about. I might have a couple but don't really care.
• I like the Cycle backs just for the coolness of the graphic.
• I like AB greens for that same aesthetic reason.
• Even though I am trying to do a master set, I might not ever get a Hobby No Stats or Wilhelm Suffered, but it's okay with me to just come close on this set.
• (The variations are so minor that I'll have some difficulty justifying those big purchases)
• I am typically a lower grade collector but found myself actually upgrading this set...damn they look nice with unchipped borders and bright colors. I feel a little shame since I usually squawk about chasing high grade cards that are 100 years old...
• I counted mine, I just hit 300 so conceivably am I half way towards set 2?
  
• T205 and Diet Peach Snapple!

[mybuddyinc]

"Piedmont 42 seems to be scarce but I still think that might be a bit of a function of people not always realizing they have one."

Probably true. Here's nothing new, and may be an insult to those who have read or responded to this thread. However, for those who are new to the issue (like me), and want to do a quick check of their Pied.'s without getting out the magnifying loop, here's a good "arm's length"* look at factory difference:

x5.jpg

* depending on your eye-sight

[nebboy]

When I first saw this thread I had already put in a opening bid on a ped42 Hooks Wiltse, that was listed on E-bay from a seller that has a lot of t205s but did not mention what back anywhere in auction. The card is a strong raw VG listed for $29.99 start bid. I was the only bidder. So in this case there was no premium paided for tuff-ish back. I wanted to see how hard people were looking for Pied42s before posting.

I have 15 other all different Pied42s in graded or raw 3 range none of which I paid none or no more than a buck or two bump to get.

As for other backs - other than BL, Drum, Hindu, all can be found without paying extra but it take time to find a good deal or one that is flying under the radar.

The really tuff thing to do is, when you do enough home work to find out which front that have common backs that are anything but common. They are the ones that I love finding in any condition for no premium. Its getting harder to do as more people like myself finally work out this information and adjust their new buys to this kind pursuit.

[T205 GB]

I can agree that when you look hard enough you will find deals all over the place. When these Pied 42's are advertised though the prices do get steep. The SGC 1.5 tinker Pied 42 for near $150. Not sure what the hammer price ended up at either. That's 3-4x the value of a common back. I bet the two guys that were interested in my Pied 42 collection at National a few yrs back are kicking themselves now for not taking the deal.

John was that the Wiltse right ear var?