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  #1  
Old 12-31-2018, 11:19 AM
Throttlesteer Throttlesteer is offline
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Default Hobby predictions for 2019

What new trends do you see happening with prewar cards in 2019? Any new shifts or focuses for the hobby? What will be at the top of your lists?
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2018, 11:34 AM
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TPGs will offer the option of designating precise centering measurements on the flip, and a whole new set of premiums will develop. Cards that are 52-48 or better both ways will sell for 3x or more. Only half kidding.
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  #3  
Old 12-31-2018, 11:39 AM
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Slabs will start to carry ads. Everything else we look at now seems to have them, so why not slabs. Everything must be monetized. Again only half kidding.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 12-31-2018 at 11:43 AM.
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  #4  
Old 12-31-2018, 12:09 PM
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that was great
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  #5  
Old 12-31-2018, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
TPGs will offer the option of designating precise centering measurements on the flip, and a whole new set of premiums will develop. Cards that are 52-48 or better both ways will sell for 3x or more. Only half kidding.
I would love this. Only half kidding.
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  #6  
Old 12-31-2018, 12:15 PM
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Prewar cards will “all” be one year older. Not kidding.
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  #7  
Old 12-31-2018, 12:48 PM
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Someone will complain that PWCC auctions are being shilled and will post a screen shot to prove it.
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  #8  
Old 12-31-2018, 01:04 PM
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TPAs will continue to happily take your money and provide an opinion to you. If they're wrong and proven so, "oh well", it was just an opinion anyway....

All of the hoopla surrounding the faked signed T206 cards will pass and then someone is going to figure out that three quarters of the signed Goudeys and 52T are fake and everyone will be up in arms about that until something else grabs their attention.
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  #9  
Old 12-31-2018, 01:06 PM
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After Jane Leavy's book on Babe Ruth, Ruth cards will take another step up in value. Joe Jackson cards on the 100th anniversary of the Black Sox scandal will also rally.
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  #10  
Old 12-31-2018, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
TPGs will offer the option of designating precise centering measurements on the flip, and a whole new set of premiums will develop. Cards that are 52-48 or better both ways will sell for 3x or more. Only half kidding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Slabs will start to carry ads. Everything else we look at now seems to have them, so why not slabs. Everything must be monetized. Again only half kidding.
I don't think these ideas are that far fetched. I can see it now, PSA would charge $15 to grade a card but if you accept a small ad in the margin then it would be $10!
Presently I pay more for a well centered card so I think this would be a no-brainer.
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  #11  
Old 12-31-2018, 02:07 PM
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I predict at least 4 threads that compare SGC to PSA cards in some way.
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  #12  
Old 12-31-2018, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
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I predict at least 4 threads that compare SGC to PSA cards in some way.
I'll take the over.
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  #13  
Old 12-31-2018, 02:54 PM
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What's your Monster number thread will go beyond 3000 replies.
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  #14  
Old 12-31-2018, 03:12 PM
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The vintage baseball card market will come back down to reality and I can buy any RC's needed for under $100.

Happy new years one and all.
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  #15  
Old 12-31-2018, 03:19 PM
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Every card I puchase will decrease in value.
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  #16  
Old 12-31-2018, 05:14 PM
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Default 2019

Rare issues of Ruth, Cobb, Jackson will be hot in 2019. Specifically PSA and SGC cards with a combined pop (regardless of numeric grade) of less than 15.
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  #17  
Old 12-31-2018, 05:36 PM
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I will bid strong in many auctions and get outbid on every single card.
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  #18  
Old 12-31-2018, 05:59 PM
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I will complete my 1949 Bowman set and still want to buy more of them.
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  #19  
Old 12-31-2018, 07:27 PM
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More dealers/flippers in the hobby with less and less collectors.... it’s sad.
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  #20  
Old 12-31-2018, 08:02 PM
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Quote:
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More dealers/flippers in the hobby with less and less collectors.... it’s sad.
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  #21  
Old 12-31-2018, 08:16 PM
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Quote:
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More dealers/flippers in the hobby with less and less collectors.... it’s sad.
And more "investors" that continue to inflate prices in the bubble until it pops.
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  #22  
Old 12-31-2018, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
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And more "investors" that continue to inflate prices in the bubble until it pops.
Pretty much all collectibles are in that same category. So much money is out of the financial markets and burning a hole in people's pockets.

I'd welcome a HUGE bubble pop to clear out all the investors and allow true collectors to actually have fun in the hobby (again).
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Last edited by Fred; 12-31-2018 at 09:46 PM.
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  #23  
Old 12-31-2018, 10:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred View Post
Pretty much all collectibles are in that same category. So much money is out of the financial markets and burning a hole in people's pockets.

I'd welcome a HUGE bubble pop to clear out all the investors and allow true collectors to actually have fun in the hobby (again).
Amen to that Fred.
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  #24  
Old 12-31-2018, 10:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred View Post
Pretty much all collectibles are in that same category. So much money is out of the financial markets and burning a hole in people's pockets.

I'd welcome a HUGE bubble pop to clear out all the investors and allow true collectors to actually have fun in the hobby (again).
+1

I'd gladly watch my collection's value fall significantly if it meant I could then get everything I want at the corresponding "discount".
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  #25  
Old 12-31-2018, 11:07 PM
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I predict that someone will find a T206 common with a small bit of missing ink on the back. All similar cards will then sell for 3x the previous value.
Whoops, I forgot the smiley face. Happy New Year!

Last edited by DaveW; 12-31-2018 at 11:09 PM.
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  #26  
Old 12-31-2018, 11:34 PM
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I predict that a seller on ebay will actually go against the grain and NOT suggest that the card he is selling is "UNDERGRADED."
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  #27  
Old 01-01-2019, 12:11 AM
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Quote:
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I predict that a seller on ebay will actually go against the grain and NOT suggest that the card he is selling is "UNDERGRADED."
Amen to that. Or “high end”. Can’t tell you how many MINT 9’s I’ve seen with “high end” added to the description. Duh! That’s why it was graded MINT 9 dumbass.
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  #28  
Old 01-01-2019, 01:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LincolnVT View Post
Rare issues of Ruth, Cobb, Jackson will be hot in 2019. Specifically PSA and SGC cards with a combined pop (regardless of numeric grade) of less than 15.
+1, but add Wagner to that group (and as prices for these 4 continue to boom, watch for it to trickle to Wajo, Young, Matty, Plank, and then maybe Lajoie, Speaker, Tinker-Evers-Chance-Brown).
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  #29  
Old 01-01-2019, 08:51 AM
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Happy New Year to all fellow 54`er`s and their families. As far as a prediction for 2019 my gut tells me more and more collectors will start looking towards and buying Type 1 photographs. Don`t get me wrong, cards will ALWAYS be king but for some (like me) the ability of photos to "capture a moment" in history is an immense draw for such pieces ! Best of luck with all your collections this year. GO SOX ...........
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  #30  
Old 01-01-2019, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldjudge View Post
After Jane Leavy's book on Babe Ruth, Ruth cards will take another step up in value. Joe Jackson cards on the 100th anniversary of the Black Sox scandal will also rally.
I’ll take the under. I don’t believe card prices have been impacted by anniversaries or books at any point during the last 10 years.
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  #31  
Old 01-01-2019, 11:07 AM
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as for AH's:
Lesser Buyer Premiums
All auctions have no more Overtime. (for ex: Ends at Midnight- no exceptions)
Better bid price structure increments
Shorter time frame for AHs (2weeks) not for whole month.

as for TPG's:
change in Auth category (altered, pinhole, miscut, handcut) etc- resulting in new label

as for cards:
New attic find, this time not T206's, might be Goudeys or PlayBalls.
Price-wise- all named Hofers continue to rise. May I add Paige to the list.
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  #32  
Old 01-01-2019, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CobbSpikedMe View Post
And more "investors" that continue to inflate prices in the bubble until it pops.

You’re exactly correct sir ! When big outside money comes in initially it’s a great thing then it comes to a rough end...... hope that doesn’t happen anytime sooon. Collectors who bought high, PSA 8 Rose Or Ryan Comes to My Mind 2015-16. Got hurt by big money coming in. This was never meant to be a big money investment hobby. It’s gonna be interesting to see what happens.

Last edited by Johnny630; 01-01-2019 at 02:45 PM.
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  #33  
Old 01-01-2019, 04:25 PM
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I predict in 2019 the world will come to an end, so unfortunately that includes the hobby too.

I predict the end of the world every year, so I figure sooner or later I will get it right.
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  #34  
Old 01-01-2019, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
+1, but add Wagner to that group (and as prices for these 4 continue to boom, watch for it to trickle to Wajo, Young, Matty, Plank, and then maybe Lajoie, Speaker, Tinker-Evers-Chance-Brown).
+1

The big 4 names (Cobb, Ruth, Jackson, Wagner) had a huge year of growth, and I agree the next tier(s) will follow, and boom.

Last edited by MVSNYC; 01-01-2019 at 06:36 PM.
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  #35  
Old 01-01-2019, 08:59 PM
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Quote:
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I’ll take the under. I don’t believe card prices have been impacted by anniversaries or books at any point during the last 10 years.
The run on 1914 Cracker Jacks in 2014 was insane, likely driven by the anniversary and a book.
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  #36  
Old 01-01-2019, 09:09 PM
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I’ll take the under. I don’t believe card prices have been impacted by anniversaries or books at any point during the last 10 years.

I think the new light shed on Ty Cobb by the book A Terrible Beauty definitely helped lead to increasing prices. I know I personally started spending a lot more on Cobb after reading it.
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  #37  
Old 01-01-2019, 09:54 PM
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The scandal with the fake signed T206s will pass (it has already fallen off the front page here), and the TPAs and AHs involved will survive with their bottom lines, if not their reputations, more or less intact.

Graig Kreindler and Tim Carroll will continue to wow us with their artwork.
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  #38  
Old 01-01-2019, 10:49 PM
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More members will join the board
A large Old Judge and a T206 Wagner find will occur
Newspapers, magazines, notebooks, pins, supplements all gain in popularity
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  #39  
Old 01-01-2019, 11:48 PM
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High grade cards, especially of top-tier HoFers, will continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. The 1%.

In post-war cards, high grade examples of Aaron, Mays and Koufax will see nice gains. Mid grade cards will stay flat.

Junk wax will finally break the $3/pound mark (though not by much) and there will be a major TPG announcement - maybe a breakup of the current crop, a new entrant or a new technology (machine learning, AI, computer vision, etc.) being employed.

T205s will close the popularity gap on T206s.

And finally, a Wagner with a Ty Cobb back will be found in grandpappy's attic
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  #40  
Old 01-02-2019, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
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a new entrant or a new technology (machine learning, AI, computer vision, etc.) being employed.
COMC already does high res scans on every card they get, so I think the technology is almost there (if it isn't already). One of these years, a TPG will partner with COMC and the two will be able to automate grading - or at least some aspects of grading.

Quote:
Originally Posted by egri View Post
The scandal with the fake signed T206s will pass (it has already fallen off the front page here), and the TPAs and AHs involved will survive with their bottom lines, if not their reputations, more or less intact.

Graig Kreindler and Tim Carroll will continue to wow us with their artwork.
It is amazing how quickly the faked sigs scandal is fading, I hope that the authorities continue to pursue it and nab the perps.

And no doubt about Kreindler and Carroll - looking forward to seeing what they can do in 2019.

Another prediction:collectors will gripe about TPGs, but just like every year, they will continue to show increased sales and will be a huge part of the hobby.
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  #41  
Old 01-02-2019, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
a new entrant or a new technology (machine learning, AI, computer vision, etc.) being employed.
COMC already does high res scans on every card they get, so I think the technology is almost there (if it isn't already). One of these years, a TPG will partner with COMC and the two will be able to automate grading - or at least some aspects of grading.

Quote:
Originally Posted by egri View Post
The scandal with the fake signed T206s will pass (it has already fallen off the front page here), and the TPAs and AHs involved will survive with their bottom lines, if not their reputations, more or less intact.

Graig Kreindler and Tim Carroll will continue to wow us with their artwork.
It is amazing how quickly the faked sigs scandal is fading, I hope that the authorities continue to pursue it and nab the perps.

And no doubt about Kreindler and Carroll - looking forward to seeing what they can do in 2019.

Another prediction:collectors will gripe about TPGs, but just like every year, they will continue to show increased sales and will be a huge part of the hobby.
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  #42  
Old 01-02-2019, 08:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WahooSam View Post
I’ll take the under. I don’t believe card prices have been impacted by anniversaries or books at any point during the last 10 years.
+1
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  #43  
Old 01-03-2019, 01:18 PM
Throttlesteer Throttlesteer is offline
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I predict another high-profile dealer/seller is going to end up getting popped for nefarious behavior
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  #44  
Old 01-03-2019, 03:32 PM
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I predict another year where my want list grows bigger because I've added more sets!

And another year, where baseball becomes less of my focus and other card collectibles gain ground.

Cheers,
Patrick
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  #45  
Old 01-04-2019, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ruth_rookie View Post
Amen to that. Or “high end”. Can’t tell you how many MINT 9’s I’ve seen with “high end” added to the description. Duh! That’s why it was graded MINT 9 dumbass.

If I was younger, in graduate school, and searching for a topic for my PhD thesis, I would choose the following.

“Nuances and Differentiation of High End Mint Cardboard Rectangles and Low End Mint Cardboard Rectangles Utilizing Artificial Intelligence”
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  #46  
Old 01-04-2019, 12:03 PM
packs packs is offline
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I sell some cards and buy some others.
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  #47  
Old 01-06-2019, 05:27 PM
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Leon Leon is offline
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Would that mean cheaper grading?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Slabs will start to carry ads. Everything else we look at now seems to have them, so why not slabs. Everything must be monetized. Again only half kidding.
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  #48  
Old 01-06-2019, 05:49 PM
The Nasty Nati The Nasty Nati is offline
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Black Sox player prices will increase due to the 100 year anniversary. Joe Jackson cards will set record prices.
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  #49  
Old 01-06-2019, 08:02 PM
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Kzoo Kzoo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati View Post
Black Sox player prices will increase due to the 100 year anniversary. Joe Jackson cards will set record prices.
I'm hoping for this, particularly with Buck Weaver cards
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  #50  
Old 01-06-2019, 09:28 PM
RedsFan1941 RedsFan1941 is offline
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there will be a trivia question posted on net 54 that has multiple correct answers, all of them considered wrong by the original poster
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