A question about 1914 Cracker Jacks

[btkpath]

As some of you are aware, I recently completed my set of 1914 CJ's (Whew!!!!!)

When I first started collecting the set four years ago, I was told that the Del Pratt card was the hardest card to find in the set, bar none, and would represent a true impediment to set completion (other than $$$$$$). The first thing I did upon embarking on this quest was to assemble a combined population list (PSA and SGC added together) to get a more complete idea as to the rarity of other cards. Although there are certainly expensive cards in the set (e.g. Mathewson, Jackson, Johnson, Cobb), none of these cards are particularly rare, and my assumption at the time was that I would see each of them for sale several times per year. I could therefore "pull the trigger" on purchasing those when it was convenient for me. The truly rare cards, though, might not come up for auction again for years, so I focussed on those as my priority. When any of the rare cards (those with combined SGC/PSA populations under 20) came up for sale, I dropped what I was doing and bid strong.

When I started, the truly rare cards were as follows:

Combined population of 10: #74 Frank Owens
Combined population of 11: #93 Del Pratt
Combined population of 12: #86 Burt Shotten and #87 Hick Cady
Combined population of 13: #41 Thomas Leach, #90 Frank Smith, #92 Al Demaree, #95 Ray Keating and #96 Beals Becker

So, in fact, even back then, one could make an argument that the Del Pratt was not the rarest of the 1914 Cracker Jacks. In fact there was a period of time about a year and a half ago that I had three of the #74 Frank Owens cards sitting on my kitchen table (see pic below).

In the past year or two, the popularity of 1914 Cracker Jacks has taken off, and their prices have followed suit. Many raw Cracker Jacks have found their way to the grading companies so their owners could (presumably) capitalize on the recent surge in prices. In fact the population of graded Cracker Jacks when I began collecting the set was 4088. It now stands at just over 5100! Almost all cards have seen substantial increases.

When I look at the population reports now, many of the cards on the list above have increased their populations by 50% (or so). Presently, the three rarest cards in the 1914 Cracker Jack set (based on combined SGC and PSA population reports) are:

#87 Hick Cady (population 14)
#93 Del Pratt (population 16)
#86 Burt Shotten (population 16)

That means there have been 5 Pratts that have come out of the woodwork in the past several years, compared to only 2 Hick Cady cards and 4 Shotten cards.

In the past 4 years, there have been 3 sales of Pratts, all in the past year, for $10,000, $16,000 and $25,000 (SGC 2, PSA 3 and SGC 6, respectfully).

Now for my question......

Given that one can make a very strong argument that the Hick Cady card is more rare and the Shotten card is equally rare to the Pratt, each with fewer new examples getting graded over the past several years and the Cady with far fewer sales why are their prices so much weaker than that of the Pratt ?

Shotten sales in the past 4 years:
3/10 SGC 2 $77
11/12 SGC 2 $831
11/12 SGC 6 $1673
12/12 PSA 4 $1465

Only a single Cady sale in the past 4 years:
12/12 PSA 3 $1953

Sorry for being so long-winded.....I really wasn't trying to filibuster anything!

[Leon]

Hi Barry
Nice summation . Maybe the Pratt card has been a self fulfilling prophecy? Do you think the cards of those three players, which are still raw, mirror the numbers of these graded ones vis a vis each player?

[Theo_450]

Sorry I don't have an answer to your question, but, I am happy to be about to add another Pratt to the population! It shows some wear and caramel staining, and I apologize for the poor picture.

[tiger8mush]

Barry, congrats again on completing your set! Its a beautiful set you have assembled. Love the pics of the Owens, to be honest I don't ever recall seeing an Owens for sale in the past couple of years at all (not that I was LOOKING for it specifically, but I keep a general eye on 1914s). Sorry I don't have an answer to your question, but its a good one. The Owens and Shotten deserve more respect! Amazing that a "good" Shotten sold for $77 just a few years ago!

Rob

[btkpath]

Originally Posted by Leon

Hi Barry
Nice summation . Maybe the Pratt card has been a self fulfilling prophecy? Do you think the cards of those three players, which are still raw, mirror the numbers of these graded ones vis a vis each player?

Leon,

Your point is well taken, and obviously I have no idea. I guess my assumption was that as the population of graded CJ's increased by 25% over the past several years, it was due to grading of all players' cards (not just select players) in relatively equal proportions. There would be no reason for 10 Frank Owens cards to get graded over the past several years (as there were) and to have only 2 Hick Cady cards graded. Both are reasonably uncommon cards and I wonder whether it just speaks to their relative rarity?


Ted,

As you know, it is a great accomplishment to have any 1914 CJ Pratt. Yours just shows years of love!

[btkpath]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Barry, congrats again on completing your set! Its a beautiful set you have assembled. Love the pics of the Owens, to be honest I don't ever recall seeing an Owens for sale in the past couple of years at all (not that I was LOOKING for it specifically, but I keep a general eye on 1914s). Sorry I don't have an answer to your question, but its a good one. The Owens and Shotten deserve more respect! Amazing that a "good" Shotten sold for $77 just a few years ago!

Rob

Hey Rob,

Thanks again for the great comments! I am sure you know there are some old friends of yours that now hold an treasured place in my collection. Truth be told, that Shotten that sold for $77 several years ago, is part of my set. I was pretty fortunate to get it at the price I did.

[Theo_450]

Originally Posted by btkpath

Leon,

Your point is well taken, and obviously I have no idea. I guess my assumption was that as the population of graded CJ's increased by 25% over the past several years, it was due to grading of all players' cards (not just select players) in relatively equal proportions. There would be no reason for 10 Frank Owens cards to get graded over the past several years (as there were) and to have only 2 Hick Cady cards graded. Both are reasonably uncommon cards and I wonder whether it just speaks to their relative rarity?


Ted,

As you know, it is a great accomplishment to have any 1914 CJ Pratt. Yours just shows years of love!

Thanks, but I am just lucky. My Grandpa's brother pulled that out of a box of Cracker Jacks 99 years ago, and my Dad rescued it from a shoebox in the attic when he was 11. I'm just lucky!!!

[spec]

Originally Posted by btkpath

As some of you are aware, I recently completed my set of 1914 CJ's (Whew!!!!!)

When I first started collecting the set four years ago, I was told that the Del Pratt card was the hardest card to find in the set, bar none, and would represent a true impediment to set completion (other than $$$$$$). The first thing I did upon embarking on this quest was to assemble a combined population list (PSA and SGC added together) to get a more complete idea as to the rarity of other cards. Although there are certainly expensive cards in the set (e.g. Mathewson, Jackson, Johnson, Cobb), none of these cards are particularly rare, and my assumption at the time was that I would see each of them for sale several times per year. I could therefore "pull the trigger" on purchasing those when it was convenient for me. The truly rare cards, though, might not come up for auction again for years, so I focussed on those as my priority. When any of the rare cards (those with combined SGC/PSA populations under 20) came up for sale, I dropped what I was doing and bid strong.

When I started, the truly rare cards were as follows:

Combined population of 10: #74 Frank Owens
Combined population of 11: #93 Del Pratt
Combined population of 12: #86 Burt Shotten and #87 Hick Cady
Combined population of 13: #41 Thomas Leach, #90 Frank Smith, #92 Al Demaree, #95 Ray Keating and #96 Beals Becker

So, in fact, even back then, one could make an argument that the Del Pratt was not the rarest of the 1914 Cracker Jacks. In fact there was a period of time about a year and a half ago that I had three of the #74 Frank Owens cards sitting on my kitchen table (see pic below).

In the past year or two, the popularity of 1914 Cracker Jacks has taken off, and their prices have followed suit. Many raw Cracker Jacks have found their way to the grading companies so their owners could (presumably) capitalize on the recent surge in prices. In fact the population of graded Cracker Jacks when I began collecting the set was 4088. It now stands at just over 5100! Almost all cards have seen substantial increases.

When I look at the population reports now, many of the cards on the list above have increased their populations by 50% (or so). Presently, the three rarest cards in the 1914 Cracker Jack set (based on combined SGC and PSA population reports) are:

#87 Hick Cady (population 14)
#93 Del Pratt (population 16)
#86 Burt Shotten (population 16)

That means there have been 5 Pratts that have come out of the woodwork in the past several years, compared to only 2 Hick Cady cards and 4 Shotten cards.

In the past 4 years, there have been 3 sales of Pratts, all in the past year, for $10,000, $16,000 and $25,000 (SGC 2, PSA 3 and SGC 6, respectfully).

Now for my question......

Given that one can make a very strong argument that the Hick Cady card is more rare and the Shotten card is equally rare to the Pratt, each with fewer new examples getting graded over the past several years and the Cady with far fewer sales why are their prices so much weaker than that of the Pratt ?

Shotten sales in the past 4 years:
3/10 SGC 2 $77
11/12 SGC 2 $831
11/12 SGC 6 $1673
12/12 PSA 4 $1465

Only a single Cady sale in the past 4 years:
12/12 PSA 3 $1953

Sorry for being so long-winded.....I really wasn't trying to filibuster anything!

One reason the 1914 Cracker Jack Del Pratt commands a higher price than Owens and Shotton is the fact that the artwork for his 1915 card was changed to a portrait, while the Owens and Shotton images remained the same. Thus, folks like this oldtimer, who completed this set back in the day as a mixture of 1914 and 1915 cards needed both Pratts. The same was true of Mathewson. So demand is a factor here, as well as scarcity.

[ethicsprof]

congrats on the CJ collection!!
A most significant achievement!
I wish I had known about the rarity of the shotten CJ.
I spent an inordinate amount of time looking for one to display with my
Scharfman photo of Shotten managing the dodgers from '48.(Shotten's actually talking with Bucky Walters,mgr of cincinnati).
I gave up a couple of weeks back and picked up a very inexpensive Shotten
stamp from '49. After seeing how much the CJ now goes for, I'm ok.
all the best,
barry

[Sean]

Originally Posted by spec

One reason the 1914 Cracker Jack Del Pratt commands a higher price than Owens and Shotton is the fact that the artwork for his 1915 card was changed to a portrait, while the Owens and Shotton images remained the same. Thus, folks like this oldtimer, who completed this set back in the day as a mixture of 1914 and 1915 cards needed both Pratts. The same was true of Mathewson. So demand is a factor here, as well as scarcity.

This is correct. Many collectors combine the 1914 and 1915 sets and don't distinguish between the two when assembling a "Cracker Jack" set, since the fronts of the cards are interchangable. However for some reason the pictures of Pratt and Mathewson changed from 1914 to 1915, so both cards are needed to complete the set. A collector who combines the sets would consider the pop report for Cady (and all others except Pratt and Matty) to include both the 1914 Cady and the 1915 Cady, rather than just the 1914. This way the Pratt and Matty from 1914 would be much more rare than any other cards.

[rainier2004]

Great write up Barry, its nice to see that your absolute obsession with these cards burns bright even 4 months post completion.

[Theo_450]

Excellent information and research. Very helpful to me. Congrats on the set.

[btkpath]

Thanks Sean and Spec,

......of course, it completely slipped my mind that there might be others wanting to get a hold of a 1914 CJ Del Pratt, like those who are putting together a master set of CJ's. I was definitely aware of the pose change for the Pratt in the 1915 set. So, it perhaps comes down to simple supply and demand!

Barry and Steve,

Thanks for the nice comments.

[btkpath]

Ted,

That is a fantastic story of the Pratt card being found and passed down through your family. It is stories like yours that help bring cards "to life" and give them more meaning.

[pawpawdiv9]

On Ebay right now--- amazing info

1914 Cracker Jack #93 Derrill Pratt SGC 30 GOOD
BIN 15,725
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-Cracker...item1c30948c6f


1915 Cracker Jack #93 Derrill Pratt St Louis SGC 88 NM-MT 8
Bids at 262.00 8 days left
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1915-Cracker...item53f615769c

1914 Cracker Jack DEL PRATT #93 ... PSA 4 VG-EX ... POP OF (9)
Bid 4,500 w/ reserve
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-Cracker...item1c30dd6a26

1915 CRACKER JACK #93 DEL PRATT PSA VG 3
BIN 350 or make offer
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1915-CRACKER...item3a7f1e396a

[Theo_450]

Wow, of all the luck. I have 140 Cracker Jack cards, only 5 of them being from 1914, and one of those is a Pratt. The rest are 1915s. I am pretty amazed by that. It's in pretty decent shape, no paper loss, the corners are rounded and it has some caramel stains, but overall it looks pretty good. Wow.

[Theo_450]

Originally Posted by btkpath

Ted,

That is a fantastic story of the Pratt card being found and passed down through your family. It is stories like yours that help bring cards "to life" and give them more meaning.

Yes, I am learning that. The providence has a great deal to do with it all.

Thanks, Ted

[ephus]

Originally Posted by Sean

This is correct. Many collectors combine the 1914 and 1915 sets and don't distinguish between the two when assembling a "Cracker Jack" set, since the fronts of the cards are interchangable. However for some reason the pictures of Pratt and Mathewson changed from 1914 to 1915, so both cards are needed to complete the set. A collector who combines the sets would consider the pop report for Cady (and all others except Pratt and Matty) to include both the 1914 Cady and the 1915 Cady, rather than just the 1914. This way the Pratt and Matty from 1914 would be much more rare than any other cards.

I agree that someone putting together a 1914-15 set would definitely elevate the few cards that changed pictures from 14 to 15 (Pratt, matty, zeider, etc.).
Pratt and matty are still harder to find than the other ones that changed.
The initial post is very well thought out. I would think that the Pratt population went up more proportionately than Owens and shotten is that any outer rim collector of cj's or dead ball cards knows about Pratt. Just like you said that it was the first thing someone told you when embarking on the set. Pratt has a reputation for being tough. Owens and shotten, to me, didn't have much of a rep as being tougher until you pointed that out well here. When Pratt is having sales of 16K, etc. then owners get them graded and have more of a reason to sell. When Owens never sells for crazy big money, then the owners of them don't have them graded and they don't "come out of the woodwork".

[cfc1909]

[ullmandds]

I love the high leg kick smith pose, Jim!!!!

[Mikehealer]

The CJ Smith is one of my favorite prewar cards. Yours is a beauty Jim.

[cfc1909]

this card reminds me of being a kid at Memorial Stadium watching Palmer with that high leg kick. It is one of my favorite Baltimore cards

[RichR]

Barry,

One factor might be that its wanted by collectors of both sets but I think its like the T206 Wagner which built a reputation of being such a rare card (and likely was early in collecting when information was harder to gather).

Congrats again btw

[Theo_450]

Finally got a scan of my Pratt. I threw in the Zeider for good measure.

[caramelcard]

Hi Barry,

First off, thanks for your informative and interesting post.

With many different issues, cards get a reputation for being the toughest in the set and they often sell for higher prices then tougher cards. I think before the internet age hobbyists didn't really have the luxury of actual numbers to back up how hard certain cards were. Several collectors would find a card to be the toughest in the set and it was labeled the toughest.

Another scenario with some of the really scarce cards is when the money brings them to market more than others that may not be as tough. So the toughest card in the set has a higher population because more collectors want to grade them and cash in. If a card is known as tough, but not the toughest, there's often not enough incentive for someone to grade/sell.

We see it with T207 (Lowdermilk) and E90 (Mitchell,Cinn) to name a couple.

Congrats again on your set.

Rob

[CW]

Originally Posted by Theo_450

Wow, of all the luck. I have 140 Cracker Jack cards, only 5 of them being from 1914, and one of those is a Pratt. The rest are 1915s. I am pretty amazed by that. It's in pretty decent shape, no paper loss, the corners are rounded and it has some caramel stains, but overall it looks pretty good. Wow.

Haha, what are the odds?

Congrats, especially if you're just finding out now about the higher value of Pratt.

(^^^obscure Rush connection there for the die-hards )

[Theo_450]

Originally Posted by CW

Haha, what are the odds?

Congrats, especially if you're just finding out now about the higher value of Pratt.

(^^^obscure Rush connection there for the die-hards )

Thanks. Definetly just finding out thanks to this fine forum and its members.

I am just happy to be here!

(obscure Bull Durham refernce! )

[Brian Van Horn]

I didn't realize this card was so rare:

[phlflyer1]

Originally Posted by btkpath

Shotten sales in the past 4 years:
3/10 SGC 2 $77
11/12 SGC 2 $831
11/12 SGC 6 $1673
12/12 PSA 4 $1465

Barry,

All that research just to prove something I already knew... that I sold my 1914 CJs too soon!

At least I feel good knowing that a passionate 1914 CJ collector such as yourself got many of the cards from my partial set, including the Shotten, which my father and I acquired from the original collector.

Congratulations again on completing your set. It is truly a magnificent collecting feat!

Scott