Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading

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Posted By: T206Collector

I believe that this auction not only establishes that population reports are flawed as indicators of true scarcity, but also demonstrates how population reports can be used to mislead unsuspecting collectors. I would like to say that I have always had a good experience with this seller as both a buyer and seller on ebay, and I think he has just got it wrong here.

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Frank-Smith-Chicago-White-Sox-White-Cap-PSA-4-RARE_W0QQitemZ5232262864QQcategoryZ31718QQrdZ1QQcm dZViewItem

All this report shows is that people are having the rarer variation graded much more frequently than the common variation, which is what you expect since one is more valuable graded than the other.

Just because fewer commons have been graded than Hall of Famers, does not establish that commons are more scarce than Hall of Famers.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

They are not reports on the existing # of specific cards but are instead merely reports of what cards have been submitted to the grading service. We know, absolutely, that certain cards were printed in identical quantities because they were on the same friggin' sheets together, yet the pops of those cards varies widely.

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Posted By: cmoking

The pop report shows me that the card he is comparing his card to (the one he doesn't have) is impossible to find in high grade. While the one he has is relatively plentiful in high grade. What that says about a PSA 4 is that his card should trade at a LOWER price than the other card even at the same grade, because a PSA 4 of the other card would be closer to the best graded example out there...whereas a PSA 4 card of the one he has is not close to the best examples out there.

So I look at the pop report that he shows and come to a completely different conclusion than the seller does. The other card is TOUGH. His card is easy. If I collected T206s, I'd use that information and adjust my bid accordingly.

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Posted By: identify7

RoadMap for what cmoking said = $5 (once I figure it out)!

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Posted By: joe brennan

How come there are 11 boxes for grading. I thought PSA only went up to 10? Maybe there's a place for an 11 OC ? J/K. I to have dealt with this seller and had great success with him. I cannot fathom a reason to hype any t206? 99% of the buyers know exactly what they are looking for if they are looking at his auctions. What are the chances that 2 complete newbies are going to look at that discription and say, "Thats the 1 I have to have" and bid $200 over book on it? Might bid us out at $50. Out

"I had the right to remain silent. I just didn't have the ability" Ron White

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Of course the pop on high value cards is higher than a commmon. One finds that across every set. The resubmission rate is higher too. It does not mean it is misleading. There is a lot of information that can be gleaned from the two pop reports.
Ignore the pops if you wish, but they are the true indicator of scarcity in a given grade and thus value.

Jim

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Posted By: warshawlaw

how many times that card has crossed that company's threshhold. Whether a card crosses that company's path is the result of many factors that have nothing to do with scarcity per se:

1. Read a bit on this board and it is apparent that most advanced collectors either dislike grading services or dislike specific grading services and refuse to use them. No card I own will ever again make its way from me into a PSA slab unless things radically change over there. Lots of others with much better collections than mine feel the same way about PSA, GAI or slabbers in general.

2. A lot of people refuse to slab cards they have no intention of selling because they view the expenditure as unnecessary, especially when it comes to big ticket cards that have to be graded in expensive tiers.

3. Many people I've discussed this issue with agree with me that if they cannot realistically hope to finish a graded set, they see no point to slabbing commons from that set. People who think that a common is a rarity just because there are only a few specimens in a slab are deluding themselves. It may be, it may not be, but the pop report does not prove anything.

The only sound conclusion that can be drawn from what we all know to be true is that there is a big population of cards sitting out there that will never be reflected in the population reports of "X" slabber. Now, if you want to use the population figures as indicators of scarcity, that is your right, but arguing that a low population report figure = scarcity is simply not supported by the facts.

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Posted By: cmoking

the boxes refer to:

PSA 1-2
PSA 3-4
PSA 5
PSA 6
PSA 7
PSA 7Q
PSA 8
PSA 8Q
PSA 9
PSA 9Q
PSA 10

That's the way PSA's online population report shows the cards.

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Posted By: tbob

Don't forget there is a lot of cracking open holders and resubmitting of expensive cards not only to the original company but to other companies as well. This will further skew results.

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

I'm sorry, but i've seen several of his auctions the past few months with at best, mistated information, and at worst, blatant lies. He always takes things to extremes and has never responded to any of my polite inquiries as to why he put such information that in his auctions. If he is on here, let him respond, but he is anything but honest to me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

1)It is certainly not correct that most advanced collectors dislike grading services.

Most advanced collectors consider slabbing mandatory.

Obviously everyone has their preferences and few like PSA, SGC and GAI.

2)While certain collectors refuse to slab cards they have no attention of selling is obviously true, if and when they do sell it will become essential to slab them if they want the highest value.

3)I collect well over 100 sets pre and post war in psa 8 and better and for virtually all the pop in 8 or better is the key deterrminent of value--the lower the pop(for a common) the higher the value. Also the pop in high grade changes very gradually and today's pops in virtually all of the most popular sets are good indicators of what they will be in the future and of relative scarcity and hence relative value.

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Posted By: Wesley

What's an "advanced collector"?

Do you need to spend a certain amount to qualify?
Years in the hobby?

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Posted By: Tim Newcomb

I just couldn't resist this time--

"Most advanced collectors consider slabbing mandatory."

Give me a frigging break!!

(to steal a phrasing from my good pal tbob).

Do most people on this board concur with Davalillo in equating "advanced" with "rich enough to buy everything in PSA 8"?

If so, let me know so I can start my own Poorhouse vintage board.

Tim

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I know 20-30 vintage collectors(defined in this case as 1950s and earlier) who have multi-million dollar collections, who have all there cards graded, have been doing it probably on average 25 years, are passionate about the hobby and have probably the top sets graded or ungraded for most if not virtually all of the most popular pre-war and post-war sets.

Are these advanced collectors?

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Posted By: David Vargha

Pop. reports are very useful for indicating scarcity, even though they are not entirely accurate. I find them especially useful in pre-war when looking at total numbers ever submitted (and resubmitted) as well as grade distribution.

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: John

I have been in the hobby for thirty years. I have bought, traded, and sold thousands of vintage cards and consider myself to have a fair amount of knowledge for pre-war football and baseball. However, I have never submitted a card to be graded and only own six graded cards. Not to knock those of you that prefer graded examples, but I prefer my cards to be unslabbed. I know that you said "most advanced collectors" consider grading to be mandatory, but most of the individuals that I sell to and buy from/for prefer their cards ungraded as well.

To address the thread topic, population reports are interesting but statistically flawed. We will never know the percentage of cards graded relative to the total number of cards that exist. Superficially, rarity of certain issues and cards can be gauged, but as stated before, often the rare and desireable issues are graded disproportionally compared to other more common issues. Also, as more grading companies develop positive reputations, the crossover will also become more common. Unless a system of communication is developed between the companies, a single card has the potential to be represented in five population reports.

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Posted By: joe brennan

the boxes refer to:

PSA 1-2
PSA 3-4
PSA 5
PSA 6
PSA 7
PSA 7Q
PSA 8
PSA 8Q
PSA 9
PSA 9Q
PSA 10

That's the way PSA's online population report shows the cards


Thanks for clearing that up for me C. Out

"I had the right to remain silent. I just didn't have the ability" Ron White

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Posted By: DJ

"who have all there cards graded, have been doing it probably on average 25 years",

Jim...so these collector's have been grading since...1980? Entire collections? I guess if you can own such an elite collection that you can afford to have "each" card graded and maybe have Roop build a special house for those cards.

The Price Guide has been replaced by the Population Report.

We always knew e107's were rare but I guess the Population Report backs up what the collectors/experts always knew!

DJ

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Posted By: Anson

When it gets to the "my daddy can beat up your's", I'll find somewhere else to post.

Yes, I was also thrown with the "advanced collector" phrase. I may not have the budget of some of the folks on this board, but I still consider myself mildly knowledgdable with pre-war cards. The board is not a high school with popular kids and outcasts. This is not the place for pecking orders and bureaucracy. We love vintage cards and share our love with other collectors. We're able to tap the vast knowledge-base and find things that would be much more difficult otherwise.

Some slab, some don't. Why does this always have to come up as a pertinent issue? Please send all your E101s, slabbed or not, to me if they don't meet your "advanced" rating.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Or who don't slab their cards but will acquire already-slabbed cards. Still doesn't change the fact that population reports are inaccurate measures of actual scarcity. I am especially leery of high grade slabbed commons as "rare" based on population reports. I have many common cards laying around that will pull very high grades if I slab them; I choose not to bother since they aren't going anywhere in the foreseeable future. If I decide to sell them I will certainly slab them so that people playing the registry contests can overspend for them.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Does the fact that I will never in my life own a PSA8 or SGC88 and slab very few cards mean that I am not an advanced collector even though I have almost 25 years of experience collecting pre-war cards?

Let's hope you aren't sliding down the slipping slope Adam M went down.

Jay

Just when I think you've said the stupid thing possible, you go and open up your mouth again. - Hank Hill

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Posted By: John

Well-said Adam & Anson great points. This kind of stuff is silly and I think killing the hobby slowly IMO.


Ted, you’re right this guy can be kind of rude. Not too long ago Lee and I were bidding on some T206’s that Set builders had returned from PSA as evid of trim. There was a knockout card of Cobb Bat Off and the most amazing Lajoie Port I had ever seen the color was super trimmed or not, the dealer said they were surprised they had come back trimmed because they measured dead on. I watched the cards until it was about to end one morning. I placed my bid about 20mins before they ended and as I checked emails for work I checked my bids on the cards.

I noticed I had been outbid, I decided to place a new bid. Before I know it a bidding war had started I had my max I was willing to gamble on trimmed cards in my mind. I made a second set of bids. I then was notified by an email from T206-Holygrail-Collector. The message said “Bring It ON!” I replied who is this and what am I bringing again? I received a second email that said “Back off Wonka or bring it. If you want that Cobb come and get it!!!!” By that time I had placed my max bid, I replied to who ever this guy is and said I didn’t have time to play games and to stop bothering me. Later that day I won the Cobb and he won the Lajoie. I thought that was the end of him, then a day later I received an email that said “Well, Wonka no sense of humor, lighten up I was just having a little fun” For those of you who know me sense of humor hasn’t been a problem for me. Later that month he had the Lajoie graded by PRO and sold it for 3 times what he paid, and you guessed it failed to mention the poss. trim in the description.

To this day he has had a few cards pictured (Color Enhanced/Photoshop) for sale I would have bought. But the guy just turned me off. Weird Ebay experience.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

To continue my prior screed: About a year ago I sent in a dozen 1971 Topps hi #'s from the set I am building to see what SGC would do with them. A bunch of 88, 92 and 96's later I got my answer. I have a big bunch of similar cards that aren't going to be graded because I have no desire to build a graded set. My experience is not unique among the set building collectors I know. A lot of cards are out there ungraded but in very high grade.

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Posted By: Mark Holt

Hey DJ - Roop is doing houses now? Where do I sign?

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Posted By: jay behrens

Adam, some of the first cards I ever got graded were hi# 71 Topps cards from my set that came straight from vending cases. Nothing graded higher than a 92. Right there, I knew that if cards straight from vending cases can't max out on grades that there was no point in ever wasting my money on graded sets.

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Here's something I've wondered about, has anyone ever bothered to compile a combined pop report from all the slabbers. THis would be more a of a true indicator than just looking at PSAs pop report. There may be only 1 or 2 of a given grade for a card at PSA, but what happens to the value of taht cards if just as many, or more exist in other slabs?

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: John

Good Point Jay.

True hobby rarities are hard to come by, hence that's why they are rare. Rare things every collector wants them, not all can have them.

So collectors and dealers have twisted the information in these reports to in a since manufacture rarities, that’s no different to me than liberty for all claming newspaper clippings are cards its fraud and bogus information being used to take advantage of a buyer or collector. We should be just a disgusted by this as we are of any guy selling reprints IMO.

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Posted By: BlackSoxFan

John -
RE: Your story -

Why am i not surprised!

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Posted By: Don

In response to:
pop reports are pure bunk August 19 2005, 2:45 PM



There are indeed the same number of cards on the sheets (excluding the sp's and dp's). However, many of the cards are positioned on the sheets such that they are consistently off-center. Many other cards have consistently bad print smudges. If a collector wants a well-centered 1969 topps basketball checklist, then he is going to need to pay a substantial premium. The pop report will show how many cards are 'gradeable' to the level that collectors will demand that card.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

because as kids we either used them or chucked them. No doubt they survived in much lower #s than other cards from the same sheets.

Edited to say: We used to have an especially fun game for checklists involving pitching them out of the 8th floor window of a friend's home above Park Avenue in NYC to see if we could get them all the way across the street. After, we'd go downstairs to look for the cards, which we rarely found. I was 10, BTW; it wasn't a recent thing