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  #51  
Old 10-18-2007, 06:48 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

I recall well what you are reporting....and, I still have all the Beckett's and CPU's (Card Prices Update....a monthly
price guide.) from that era to reinforce my memory of those early 1980's. A 1952T Mantle in 1980 peaked at $3000.
By 1982 the exact same card going for only $500.

The idea presented here has been pretty well "beaten down" by most of the previous posters here. I can't add much
more to this discussion, except to say that this "high-end" stuff is just a risky "high-stakes" gamble.

It's not for me......

T-Rex TED

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  #52  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:16 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

This find of 50+ near mint Hi# Stengel cards has occurred before with 1952 Bowman's.
In 1982, I came across a find of GEM prefect 1952 B Joe Collins (about 40 cards). What
do Collins (#181) and Stengel (#217) have in common, they were both the uppermost,
left corner card on their respective 36-card sheets. And therefore, subject to all kinds
of dings, etc. But, surprise, surprise a batch of perfect cards appear and the so-called
experts are stunned !

There have been other such finds of 1952 Bowmans in near GEM mint condition....Crosetti
(#252), the last card in this set, is one. You guys "live and die" by these POP reports, but
there will always be such finds to "pop" your POP reports.

T-Rex TED

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  #53  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:46 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: JimCrandell

I repeat that any hedge fund set up to do this in the last five years would have enjoyed spectacular returns--like shooting fish in a barrel.

The next five years may be tougher. The person managing the fund is critical. Quality and a good eye for value would be the keys.

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  #54  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:54 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- that's a very good point. The last five years have been spectacular, but the next five may not be as kind.

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  #55  
Old 10-18-2007, 08:01 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: David Smith

Jim,

So what if TWO hedge funds like this have ALREADY been set up and hsve been buying cards for the lsst five years?? What if the increases in price is because these two have been bidding and competing agaisnt each other?? Then, what if one decides to liquidate and the buyers aren't there for the stuff?? At least not at the price levels the cards were bought for because these two were really the only ones duking it out??

In short, what if these two have created an artificial market??

David

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  #56  
Old 10-18-2007, 08:05 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: JimCrandell

David,

I think there are a number of buyers for high end sportscards and the removal of one fund would not crash the market.

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  #57  
Old 10-18-2007, 10:12 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: cmoking

"And I'd bring this up to my boss, but I don't want to lose my job."

Chad is a smart man.

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  #58  
Old 10-18-2007, 10:24 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: peter chao

The Sports Cards and Memorabilia market is similiar in some ways to penny stocks. It also has some of the same problems. They are both thinly traded and there are problems with liquidity.

The hedge funds have never looked kindly upon penny stocks. It is doubtful that they would be very interested in Sports Cards.

Peter C.

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  #59  
Old 10-18-2007, 11:46 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Bill Cornell

The recognition by money managers or hedge funds of sports cards as an investment class would be a major deveopment and lead to a major leg up in the values of rare high grade pre-war sportscards.

Hedge [sic] funds are places where rich people go to get less rich. If you had the exciting opportunity to pay a 2/20 rate or even (gasp) a 3/30 rate and you took it, then your redistribution of wealth is a fact, not a theory.

Put $25m into the vintage card 'market' and you'll watch almost every buyer disappear. Then prices, um, what? Ah - go down. See what happened when Copeland got hungry, and then bulimic, 15 years ago.

More board posturing. Let's move on.


Bill

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  #60  
Old 10-18-2007, 11:53 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: David R

I just have a hard time believing that today's younger generations (under 30 and especially under 20) are going to care about, or be willing to pay as much for, these old pieces of cardboard as we are when they reach the age when they have the most disposable income. My impression is that most folks on this board are in the 35-65 age range. Younger generations seem much less interested in, or religious about, collecting baseball cards than folks of our generation. Today there are so many more distractions -- video games, text messaging, pokemon, lots of other sports that have grown in popularity, etc. -- for kids growing up. And with all the media coverage today exposing every human flaw and misstep, kids today just don't seem to look at professional baseball players with the same reverence that we did when we were kids. While many folks of our generation may be willing to shell out big bucks to get that mint condition Mickey Mantle that they could never find as a kid, or to buy that tobacco or gum card of the players their Dad or Grandfather worshipped and talked about so fondly while they were growing up, I doubt that kids today will feel the same way.

For those of us who have lots of money "invested" (whether we consider ourselves investors or collectors), it's nice to think (for our own self-interest) that the market for these will continue to prosper as time goes on. And maybe it will for the next 20 years or so and maybe that's long enough. But as a long-term investment vehicle for younger folks, I don't think it makes much sense.

I'm sure I'll get some pushback from those of us who have lots invested, but as Barry would say, that's my three cents.

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  #61  
Old 10-19-2007, 01:07 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: bruce Dorskind


The Only Thing To Fear Is Fear Itself


Whilst predicting future returns on investment is pure speculation, we would like
to make several observations to refute some of the commentary with regard
to the card market

1. Mr Chao, whilst free with his commentary, apparently has no understanding whatsoever
of the breadth and scope of the hedge fund market. There are nearly 10,000 hedge
funds with a plethora of different strategies. A number of funds are invested in very
niche markets. Not all funds require immediate liquidity. A number of billion dollar
plus funds have two and three year lock up periods.

2. Mr. Copeland spent a considerable sum of money on baseball cards in a short period
of time. Although he was a very successful Sporting Goods retailer, he was not particularly
savvy with regard to his baseball card investment. He limited his purchases to five dealers.
He bought an incredible range of different items and his purchase price had nothing to
do with the rest of the market.

Furthermore at the time Copeland built his collection (we spoke numerous times), far less
price and market information was available and the Internet was still on Al Gore's drawing
board.

Someone who entered the market today, would have to spend at least 10X what Copeland
spent to have any impact whatsoever on the market

3. If and when a Hedge Fund decided to invest in baseball cards, they could buy all the
knowledge they need. The prospect of a billion dollar plus fund, spending $25 million
based on instinct and a few calls to leading auction houses, is laughable at best.
On two occasions we have been retained as expert consultants to major hedge funds.
Our remuneration was never an issue...investing in expertise is part and parcel of
the due diligence process. Those who think otherwise sound childlike, at best.

4. It is impossible to predict what today's young boys and girls will collect in 20 years.
Everyone thought the coin market was just for old folks, then, led by Harvey Stack, the
"State Quarter Program" was introduced and 70 million people now collect coins

5. While the average Board Member maybe a "early stage" Baby Boomer, the Board, whilst
distinguished in some ways represents well less than 2% of the total expenditure on baseball
cards in America. If anyone has any doubts on this issue ask Bill Mastro and Rob Lifson
what percentage of their total sales from the last 10 auctions came from active Network 54
participants.

It is all well and good to have an open debate and to give thought about the future direction
of rare card collecting and its investment potential. It is our hope, however, that some of
the posters who appear to be afraid of a major money market investor do their homework
before posting.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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  #62  
Old 10-19-2007, 04:53 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Ed Ivey

Whilst the dog ate my homework, it's still fun to post once in a while.

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  #63  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:14 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: barrysloate

Is it really true that Harvey Stack had some influence on the State Quarter program? He once interviewed me for a job- at Stack's (didn't get it).

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  #64  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:52 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: leon

That was fairly well thought out and maybe not quite as condescending as usual....One point I do disagree on is the amount of money spent vis a vis the auction houses by folks that at least lurk here at Net54. I am not so sure on memorabilia but on the vintage cards side I would have to guess the percentage is higher than 20%, and maybe it would approach 50%, or more. In Mastro's live auction...the total would be over 80%...I am sure. best regards

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  #65  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:08 AM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

Leon- i think your estimates are pretty optimistic, IMO.


MS

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  #66  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:11 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: leon

From the folks AT the Net54 Dinner and me being at the Mastro Live Auction....Yes, I do believe those percentages are very close....and I didn't say I was sure about the 50%....I said I was sure of the 20% and it would approach 50%....And about the Live Auction....yes, I feel close to 80% spent on the cards were folks that check this board out.....especially since the first lot was a good bit itself....best regards

edited spellin'

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  #67  
Old 10-19-2007, 10:03 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

I think it will be very difficult for hedge funds to generate high returns, regardless who they hire to advise them, for two main reasons. (1) High transactions costs when selling items -- even assuming the SP is negotiated down to zero, the typical auction house has a BP of 15%-20%; (2) when making their acquisitions they will be competing with collectors who will be looking to buy items based on their enjoyment of owning it, regardless how good an investment it is. Or to put it another way, a hedge fund's utility curve puts zero value on the pleasures of ownership. Collectors' utility curves, in contrast, typically put high values on ownership pleasures, which makes an item much more valuable to a collector than to a fund. The fund therefore will find it very difficult to outbid the collector and still garner high returns.

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  #68  
Old 10-19-2007, 10:24 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: barrysloate

Also, another obvious detriment is that, as we've discussed, the baseball card industry is unregulated. Will a fund want to put tens of millions of dollars into high grade baseball cards when the sellers of those cards are quite often ethically challenged?

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  #69  
Old 10-19-2007, 10:35 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Brian

<<I would have to guess the percentage is higher than 20%, and maybe it would approach 50%, or more. In Mastro's live auction...the total would be over 80%...I am sure. best regards>>


I can see why so many are so eager to advertise here.

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  #70  
Old 10-19-2007, 10:45 AM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Jason L

I would imagine that hedge funds with their deep pockets could pay anyone just about anything required in order to get a card altered to obtain the realized price (return) that they require...

As Bruce said, price was no object for market information. I don't doubt that. Nor do I doubt that price would be no object to turn a dozen PSA 4 T206s into PSA 8s. If they're scarce HOFers, well, then the money might actually be meaningful to a fund entity.

Hmmm....

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  #71  
Old 10-19-2007, 12:12 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Alan

I think everyone who won something at the Mastro live auction is at least a lurker, if not an active participant of this board.

Alan

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  #72  
Old 10-19-2007, 12:50 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Jay

Barry--Funds invest in all kinds of unregulated areas so I don't think that's an issue. What is an issue is market depth,lack of price discovery and high transactions costs.

Bruce--I believe the 2% figure that you have thrown out is low, and not by a trivial amount. That would mean that in a typical $10 million Mastro auction board members purchase only $200,000 of the total. That is not just low, it is crazy low.

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  #73  
Old 10-19-2007, 01:02 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: dstudeba

Thank you Chad, Bill, and Corey for your posts.

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  #74  
Old 10-19-2007, 01:39 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: bruce Dorskind







Jay;

The comment we made is that Board Members represent 2% of the
total card market.

We have no way of knowing who is lurking and how often. One never sees posts
from the "big three" high grade collectors. Our sense from speaking with major
auctioneers is that a number of their biggest customers are private investors
and are not involved in any social networking site.

While there are certainly people like yourself and countless others who spend
considerable money on the acquisition of cards, it would be difficult to believe,
given Board traffic and the number of catalogs sent out by Mastro and Lifson,
as well as the number of bidders on E Bay that active board members (those
who post) account for a large percentage of the market.

Leon's remark with regard to the live Mastro Auction at the National relates
to one event which had less than 40 baseball card lots and the most expensive
lot was acquired by a Board Member. Nice to know but small in the scope of
things.

Our point is that the rare baseball card market is changing rapidly, subject to
outside influences and could be significantly affected by a major influx of
capital.

Jay, as someone who works in the financial services industry, you also recognize
that if a professional investment firm entered the market with $25-50 million
they would not have to subject themselves to auction fees. They could simply
contact a large group of collectors. There are many, many dealers out there
who would be all too happy, for a fee, to serve as a source of introduction.

If one wants to understand the power of marketing, go no further than Mr. Mint.
While many don't agree with his style, he has managed to acquire several hundred
millions in cards...all of it without a single auction acquisition.

There is not a single correct answer here. Rather, the point is that the market will
evolve and when and if a hedge fund or like organization enters the market, the old
rules and channels will go away.


Bruce Dorskind
Ameerica's Toughest Want List

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  #75  
Old 10-19-2007, 01:48 PM
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Posted By: Jay

Bruce--For some time I have thought that a hedge fund presence in cards was a possiblity. My guess is that the most likely way that it would happen is as part of a "collectibles" fund. That would solve the market depth issue since, in addition to cards, the pool could be invested in coins, art, or any other of a number of collectible categories.

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  #76  
Old 10-19-2007, 02:00 PM
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Posted By: PC

The illiquidity point made by Peter above appears to have been confused with fund lock-ups, and Peter's point missed completely -- whilst hedge funds might lock-up their investors, the investments made by such funds are not locked-up. The investments may be more or less liquid compared to other investments, but that has nothing to do with an investor lock-up.

In any event, whilst one's ownership interests in a hedge fund might be illiquid due to a lock-up, one would expect the investments made by such funds to be rather more liquid.

How liquid is of course a matter of risk tolerance determined by the fund, but liquidity is an issue for realizing gains, and fund managers make their 20% on gains. And since that 20% is really the only thing the managers care about, liquidity is most certainly a key consideration.

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  #77  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:34 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Fred C

Wouldn't there have to be some type of oversight? I couldn't imagine people blindly investing money into a "collectibles fund". There's just too many ways that people can and would get ripped off. There are enough unscrupulous people out there willing to find a way to screw the general public. You could get a bunch of independent investors together but a public offering wouldn't fly (IMO) unless there were measures in place to protect the public. I guess it's unchartered territory in some ways. Could you imagine a "Memory Lane Collectibles Hedge Fund"?

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  #78  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:44 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Fred, please do not give JP any new ideas; the portion of the country that answers its telephones will suffer because of it.

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  #79  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:44 PM
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Posted By: Fred C

JP?

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  #80  
Old 10-19-2007, 05:56 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

United States v. JP Cohen.

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  #81  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:11 PM
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Posted By: Fred C

Oh yeah, that JP. I was thinking in the general terms of a name for the hedge fund. Memory Lane = Antique store = collectibles. There seems to be a Memory Lane Antiques Store in many different cities. It was kind of a generic term but with that said there is THAT possibilty...

ring, ring, ring... (for those younger than 25-30 that's what old telephones used to sound like )

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  #82  
Old 10-19-2007, 07:41 PM
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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

As regard transactions costs, while I do not necessarily disagree that funds could for considerally less than the BP arrange to have private placements to well-heeled collectors, that in and of itself will not suffice. Funds will need to have full access to the entire collectibles marketplace, which vastly exceeds any private collector base. The way to access this market is via the auction route. My guess is that should the day come that a fund has a signficant place in the baseball collectibles market, it will overcome the hurdle of high transactions costs by having a significant ownership interest in a major baseball auction house.

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  #83  
Old 10-19-2007, 07:47 PM
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Posted By: brian

"One never sees posts
from the "big three" high grade collectors."


And who would they be? Are there 3 who have more slabbed high grade vintage cards than JimB, other than including graded commons held by post-war set collectors? There is only one collector I can think of with more high grade rarities, and that person probably has the highest total of vintage slabs in the hobby in all grades)....100,000+

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  #84  
Old 10-19-2007, 08:07 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Corey/Bruce: Corey makes a good point. Maybe the best way to make money in vintage cards is through ownership in an auction house. Barry, have any venture capitalists come calling yet?

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  #85  
Old 10-20-2007, 05:10 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

The venture capitalist business has been a little slow lately, Jeff.

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  #86  
Old 10-21-2007, 04:43 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

The T206 Gretzky Wagner is the only really pricey item. Why does a hedge fund have to get involved? A wealthy collector willing to spend about 20 million on key vintage cards could probably control the market.

The Vintage Card Market is small potatoes for a Hedge Fund. My guess is that the Funds that have considered the Rare Card Market thought it wasn't worth their time and effort to gain the expertise and make the necessary administrative changes to their company.

Peter C.

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Old 10-21-2007, 09:09 PM
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Posted By: SC

I would have to think, with the expenses involved, that a fund investing would only be interested in individual items of $1000+ (and that's a pretty low level), probably certified, and probably key cards that are widely traded (i.e. no condition scarcities, or set scarcities).

You would probably only want to focus on the very top players (Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Williams, Mantle - how many other iconic players are there??), and perhaps key/rookie cards of some of the top players from the 50s (Aaron, Koufax, Mays, etc.) How much can you spend on those items? Even less if you kept to the standard & most recognized issues of T206, Goudey, Bowman, Topps?

On a smaller level, I've always felt there was money to be made by making a market in one or two issues. What if someone just decided to buy every Aaron rookie that makes it to the market? I count about 20 Aarons in closed auctions on ebay, another dozen or so live. If you only look at PSA, it's a fraction of that. Doesn't seem it would take much $$ to move the market.

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  #88  
Old 10-21-2007, 10:13 PM
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Posted By: Misunderestimated

Ramblings:

In the rarified world of hedge funds and the like the cards are pretty much "small beer" with a few notable exceptions mentioned above...

Also I think there is a potential problem on the supply side -- especially for the post WWII cards (even in the high grades).
While we talk as if the supply is somewhat fixed based on the pop reports etc. it really isn't. We just don't know what else is out there and whether there will be finds (like the Stengel etc) or even just a bunch old-time collector's divesting that will belie our assumptions about rarity.
On the other hand there is virtual certainty about how many Stratavari and other top notch violins/cellos etc. are out there.

Also, with the instruments they have to be used (they really do according to concert performers I have talked to) to be maintained and musicians want to use the best and can own/rent/lease them in ways that are tax-friendly. A perfect 1933 Ruth (or whatever) is best left alone -- entombed in plastic and then encarcerated in light and temperature controlled a safety deposit box where no harm can befall it.

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  #89  
Old 10-22-2007, 11:11 AM
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Posted By: peter chao

It is going to be more common, that people with money are going to display their vintage cards and memorabilia just like they currently hang paintings on their walls. It works really well in the hobby room or bonus room.

I've got the T-206 white and dark cap Mathewsons, now all I'm looking for is the portrait. If I can find one in excellent condition, I'm on my way to a good looking display.

Peter C.

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Old 10-22-2007, 01:58 PM
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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

I believe that several funds already identify that they invest in collectibles with a small part of their funds.

Coins and stamps are their first choice as the demand for these are global. But Baseball cards offer opportunity.

What is interesting to consider is the potential strategies that the funds could employ. Graded cards would definately be viewed by a fund as a necessity. Even if cards bought raw they would probably soon be graded if only for insurance purposes.

There are a couple potential strategies. Highest grade cards post WWII - PSA 9's and 10's. High Grade pre-WWI popular HOF'ers - 7's, 8's, and 9's and complete sets mid-grade and above. And 19th century HOF'ers and significant cards.

Irregardless of the strategy the fund would want to execute over a relatively short period (2-3 years) of time and quietly.

However I think the opportunity has passed. Those funds that may have already invested will likely begin to realize their gains as the overall economy in the USA will have a large potential impact on the baseball card market for high priced items. It doesn't affect many of the best heeled collectors but definately impacts those that "feel" wealthy but aren't quite there yet in reality.

If I was going to invest, I'd go after the items with a combination of scarcity and popularity. W600's HOF, T3's HOF, E90-1, E94, E98 sets & HOF, N167, N172's HOF. High Grade T206 Cobb's and Johnson's. T204 mid & High Grade. E90-2 Wagner; D's Young, Wagner, Cobb, Mathewson. A consistent three-four year effort to buy all that come to market (within reason) and holding for a good period of time (at least 3 years) would have the impact of taking out supply and moving the price point for these items higher in people's minds.

Now if I could only get folks to pony up $100 million for my new fund

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Old 10-22-2007, 02:08 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: barrysloate

I suspect a fund wouldn't have the sophistication to buy the cards you cited. More likely they would buy items related to Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, etc. I couldn't imagine them buying W600's or E94's. Too esoteric. And N167's? How many of them come to market in a year? A Ruth jersey or game used bat is a lot more likely.

I think a fund would go more mainstream, assuming they would get involved with baseball memorabilia at all.

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Old 10-22-2007, 02:34 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Well I would disagree that the fund wouldn't have sophistication. They'd pay for the best minds available and would attempt to buy inroads to large known collectors and offer above average prices for those cards.

What I think would appeal about W600's and others is that they would be having an impact on the supply available to "real" collectors.

There have been funds that have traditionally invested in stamps and they often have targeted high quality "niche" issues that "big-time" collectors would want to complete their collections. Various British Isle issues and scarce British subsets have been frequent targets. Due to the British empire, you have worldwide collectors atracted to British issues (since this was used in their countries). Taking out even 20-30% of the available supply - especially if its high quality leaves the potential for large returns down the road.

I'd try to do the same with W600's. Buy two of the largest collections known and purchase 70-80% of the high quality items coming to market for three years and the next 5 or 6 well heeled collectors that want to complete the set will be willing to consider a very different price point for the issue....with the resulting reward for my fund!!

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Old 10-22-2007, 02:37 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Well then the fund would have to solicit the expertise of a die-hard baseball card collector. Guess it could be done, but I still think Ruth and Cobb would be the way they would go.

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Old 10-22-2007, 05:56 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Not only do I agree with Barry, but I'm pretty sure that's exactly what I'd do if I were investing someone else's money. I'd be buying "sure thing" investments like Mantle, Ruth, DiMaggio, Cobb, and Wagner. T206s, '33 Goudeys, '52 Topps.

I'd only put a small percentage of the total investment into esoteric card types, and I would balance that with investments into eBay and Sealed Air Corp.

-Al

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Old 03-30-2009, 09:03 PM
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Posted By: Jamie

It is conceivable that a hedge fund could invest in cards with a considerable amount of money, but it would be challenging. First off, due to the auction format, they would often find themselves bidding against collectors who will often pay considerably over market value for their card. This would make purchasing 1/1's and other esoteric items somewhat impractical.

Then if they went to sell that item, they would no longer be driving up the price of that very same card, causing them to lose money. This would limit their purchases to more mainstream high-grade cards with a worth of $50k+.

Another salient point to consider is that hedge funds I believe often have to report performance, and since a card is an individual collectible, it is considerably difficult to track value unless an actual sale is made. Though it is becoming more easier these days due to sites like VCP, etc., auction prices do vary considerably and hedge funds would have to risk not getting the return in value which they estimated to their investors and getting potential attacks of fraud.

This is not to say that a baseball card hedge fund could not happen. Certainly individual collectors have at times put massive amounts of money in, amounts that could be comparable to a small hedge fund.

Would I could see happening is a baseball card holding company that is publicly traded as an OTC (over-the-counter) penny stock. For instance, the company buys a mid-grade t206 Wagner for $1mn, then floats 100,000 shares at $10 a share. This would be incredible as it would give everyday people a chance to say that they own part of an Honus Wagner card.

Then if the company wants to purchase other cards, it floats 10,000 shares to give it an extra $100k and perhaps buy T206 PSA 9's of Johnson and Cobb, or whoever. As the value of the cards rise or fall, so does the share prices of the company stock. But then, what would be the motivation to create such a company? And the overhead of issuing shares and creating SEC filings would make it frustrating.

All in all, baseball cards can be great investment, but there is significant overhead. You need to pay the auction house 15-20%, and profits are taxed at general income. Storage costs, insurance, for a hedge fund paperwork and research experts, then the tediousness of late-night auctions bidding against fanatic collectors could create considerable overhead. Not to mention that most people who invest in baseball cards like to own the actual card, which as someone stated here, lessens it intrinsic worth for a hedge fund.

Many top collectors seem to like displaying their cards and sets, which is healthy for the promotion of their cards and the hobby. If a hedge fund buys cards and stashes them away for twenty years, it could be damaging to the hobby. Not that it won't necessarily happen, though. Interesting topic.

I do love cards, but yes, I do view them as an investment. I can't afford to overpay by 100% just for the "passion" of collecting.

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Old 03-30-2009, 09:46 PM
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Posted By: Jamie

Also, a few couple other factors that would be a detriment to a hedge fund:

1.

For a hedge fund to justify investment in baseball cards, it needs investors who understand the value of baseball cards. If a hedge fund invested just a small percentage of its portfolio in cards, with the other parts in more traditional investment instruments such as stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., it could turn off potential clients who don't understand the card market. This would probably limit the fund to a 100% investment in at the very least collectibles, if not purely cards.

Furthermore, those who truly do understand the value of baseball cards are generally the people who already collect them. They would then be more likely to do the bidding on their own and own their own cards then have to deal with the massive fees associated with a hedge fund.

2.

Liquidity will be a major issue. Take, for instance, a hedge fund with four investors who each invest $5mn. So $20mn is invested in cards. Then, in a couple years, one investor wants to take their money out, so the hedge fund sells $5mn worth of cards. Then six months later, a new investor comes along and wants to invest $5mn. So the hedge fund is forced to buy back cards that are similar or the same as the ones it just sold. Obviously, the costs of all this turnover is tremendous. These factors lead me to believe that, while every collector would love to run a hedge fund that invests $30mn in baseball cards, it may never happen, or if it does, that it may be a pretty failed idea.

----

All that said, if people can try to corner a rare violin market, they could do it with cards. Attempts to corner a market, however, can be very dangerous. Think the Hunt Brothers with silver back in the eighties... so if a hedge fund were to try it with cards, we could see exploding values for cards, followed by a crash like has never been seen before... ultimately, the problem with cornering a market is that once you become the seller, the market becomes less and less cornered and values crash.

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Old 03-30-2009, 10:36 PM
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Default How Long Before Hedge Funds Control The Rare Card Market?

Posted By: Al C.risafulli

So if someone started a hedge fund for baseball cards, bought high-end cards, altered them and sold them at astronomical prices...

...would that make him a hedge trimmer?

-Al

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Old 03-30-2009, 10:46 PM
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Posted By: Jamie

No, it would make him a criminal.

Meaning, since this is hedge funds we're talking about, it's quite feasible...

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Old 03-30-2009, 10:56 PM
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Posted By: Fred C

Good one Al...

If someone did try to make a hedge fund worth $$$$$ then I suspect you'd see the best card doctors come out and put the graders to the test. I would be willing to bet that someone could invest 100 hours in time to fix a card. At $100 an hour that's $10K. Why not invest $10K to make a $25K card look like a $100K card. That's a great return on an investment. I'd just hate to think what some greedy a$$holes would do just to make a buck. We've seen some pretty unscrupolous butt heads work the system, now assign the million dollar price tag to our cards/hobby and the a$$holes will come out of the wood work. It makes me sick to think about it.

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Old 03-30-2009, 11:05 PM
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Dollars to donuts that's happening right now.


-Al

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