Pre-War Correction underway?

[Rhotchkiss]

I collect rare back t206s, and HOFers from 1900-1920(ish), so that’s all I follow and know. But it seems to me that more common, pre-war, HOF cards have recently sold at large discounts compared to what they were selling for before all this Moser/alteration stuff went viral. For example, the Matty dark cap PSA 6 pictured below sold last night for just over $3100, which is much less than any 2018-2019 comp according to VCP; granted there does appear to be small white fleck or paper loss on the chin of this one.

This nice looking card sold for about 33% less than other comps. While my t206 brown Lenox and a pretty t215-1 sold in the most recent PWCC auction for strong prices, those are super rare cards, I noticed that a number of higher graded, pre-war, HOFers sold for similar discounts. I have also seen recent, one-off auctions of solid cards go for well below the past year’s VCP average. For example, a pretty D322 Wagner 1.5 just sold for under $5k (should have been a $6k+ card), a different t206 Matty dark cap PSA 6 recently did not get a minimum bid of $1850 (compare this to VCP averages), a Probstein SGC 6, t206 Cy young portrait just sold for $5,804 (PSA 5s have been selling at an average of $8k), and a fairly rare SGC 3, e92 Croft’s candy a Wagner throwing sold for under $2k (a steal considering these rarely sell and the more common dockman back normally fetches about $1900 in this grade).

So, I have seen indicators that we may be in a correction in prewar. Thoughts?

[Exhibitman]

Too small a sample to tell whether those were aberrant sales (perhaps due to vacation or similar distractions). Ask again in 6 mos. after hundreds of cards have moved.

[ullmandds]

While I agree with Adam that the sample size is way too small at this point to know if a correction is underway...it would not surprise me in the least if this is the beginning of one. A lot of the younger collectors/investors were paying crazy money for pretty common t206's lately...with the mindset that valuations will just keep going up...and I think some maybe spooked and are selling/leaving the hobby.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- the sales you cited occurred simultaneous with the revelations of the past several weeks. It would be more interesting to see if in a month or two everything returns to normal. This does need to be tracked over a longer period of time.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Way too little, way too early to tell.

[barrysloate]

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

[Rhotchkiss]

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

[Goudey77]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

I think it was already destined to happen. We were on the peak. The scandals may have just triggered it. I think that upward trend was unsustainable. There are only a limited amount of buyers with so much cash.

Also need to factor in resale. If you depend on flipping cards to buy more cards then even a temporary dip in prices could halt that activity.
Even if prices remained stable its a loss on the sales end. At that point where's the new money to support the higher prices?

[sb1]

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by sb1

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

[pokerplyr80]

It doesn't take much to move the needle one way or the other with how often many prewar cards come to market. A few guys jumping out or sitting a few auctions out and it can look like the market is crashing. A few guys with deep pockets decide they all want similar cards and prices can jump so fast it looks like market manipulation.

There are a couple prewar cards I'd like to add to the collection. If a drop in prices let's me get in a little cheaper I won't be complaining.

[griffon512]

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by griffon512

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

Yup. You can't just analyze flips and prices to do a meaningful comparison sometimes. Particularly with just one or two examples of a card. To call a trend I think you would need much more data over a sustained period. Just my opinion.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

And that is the beauty of collecting truly rare things. Other than when everything goes down the tubes (2008 for example), rarity is never having to be sorry.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

I think you are approaching it with the right idea. Buying HOFers on low pop issues gives you a very high ceiling for growth. Investing in rare cards at next year prices pays off many times. Not too mention, if its a public sale, it sets the bar higher for the next sale. Great Cobb postcard BTW which is extremly under valued. I would gladly over pay for that one.

Terry Knouse "TIK" coined this phrase with me, as he would say this everytime I tried negoiating with him "Last I checked, they weren't making anymore of these" then we wouod shake hands and my purchase became my new favorite card.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

I'm not. Friggin done.

There are some cards from the '60's in their latest auction that I would have normally been interested in, and they are so short in the PSA holders it is a joke.

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

James, I agree some of the examples I site are lesser quality (especially the matty dark cap that does look like it should be in a 4 flip), but the prices are lower than what I would expect nonetheless, especially given the looks of some of the other comps I am comparing them to. To use an absolute example, the same e106 Wagner batting PSA has sold 5 times since 2015, and in it sold for less (by over $1300) in this last pwcc auction than any of the previous 4 sales going back to 2015; I know that one of the mile high sales did not actually occur/high bidder did not pay for the card, but still...

[scooter729]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Thanks for the feedback guys.

James, I agree some of the examples I site are lesser quality (especially the matty dark cap that does look like it should be in a 4 flip), but the prices are lower than what I would expect nonetheless, especially given the looks of some of the other comps I am comparing them to. To use an absolute example, the same e106 Wagner batting PSA has sold 5 times since 2015, and in it sold for less (by over $1300) in this last pwcc auction than any of the previous 4 sales going back to 2015; I know that one of the mile high sales did not actually occur/high bidder did not pay for the card, but still...

I was watching that E106 Wagner as it approached its closing time at $8k. Heck, I think I have bid more on it myself in the past. But as I considered bidding, I just felt it wasn’t the right time or the right seller. I may regret it later, but I just watched it end at a lower price than I would have done just a couple of months ago.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

I think Barry is right, simply put, people have pumped the brakes somewhat with aggressive bidding (due to being a little "jittery"). Time will tell if a correction will(is) happen(ing). I do think, however, as mentioned above, true rarity will always hold it's value and command strong prices.

[Throttlesteer]

I honestly hope it is a slight correction, as several cards I've had my eye on have been a bit more than what I'm willing to spend. But, I also believe the jitters are contributing to the lower realized prices; Especially the PSA graded stuff.

There's a bit of irony, considering 6 months ago everyone was throwing their money at dead-centered, lighthouse PSA-graded cards. Now it appears the safest bet might be older flip, off-centered, low grade cards.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

[HobokenJon]

We'll know soon enough if there's a near-term correction for T206 rare backs, when we see how the current Heritage auction turns out.

It looks like David Hall is selling. I haven't seen any discussion about this on the board yet. Was there a thread that I missed? (I don't post here often, and it's possible I missed it.)

[HobokenJon]

I say that about Mr. Hall, because I remember when this card sold at REA in 2013, and hearing at the time from multiple sources on good authority that he was the buyer. Note that it was in an SGC 60 holder when it sold at REA. I also remember when the crossover showed up as a 4.5 on the PSA pop report shortly afterward (a few months later at most, as I recall).

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

https://www.robertedwardauctions.com...-only-example/

Whatever the case, this is a heck of an auction coming up, and it's just the first. It should be a true test of collectors' sentiment.

[BLongley]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=3244

Not good!!

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

Sorry for the late post Jay, just saw this now.

Yes, there are 19th century cards that are unique, or nearly so, so if you can afford them you take advantage of the opportunity when it's there.

But we have a whole class of investors entering the hobby and do you think they are adding Four Base Hits hall-of-famers to their portfolios? It's more like green Cobbs, 52 Mantle's, 49 Leaf Robbys, etc.

So I repeat what I said. Be patient!