vintage cards recession proof?

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Posted By: steve

I would like to educate myself on what cards are not so rare nobody colelcts them (silks, colgans, exhibits), yet not too plentiful to be considered commodities (major T206 HOF'ers PSA 7).

There seems to be a fine line of correctly proportioned supply/demand to meet our conversed upon topic.

Perhaps:
Certain 1909-11 Caramels, high grade, major HOFers Y/N
T205's, high grade, major HOFers Y/N
T3's, High grade, major HOFers Y/N
Cracker Jacks, high grade, major HOFers Y/N
Other suggested cards ____________________

question: high end is equivalent to PSA 6, 7 or 8 ?

steve

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Posted By: scott brockelman

Steve,

I think the absolute answer may lie with each individual collector. For the most part I would say that to truely be rare and highly sought after are the 2 major components as others outlined above. I would define that as low pop cards in the mainstream sets.

To answer your questions:

Certain 1909-11 Caramels, high grade, major HOFers--Absolutely, most of the early caramel sets E90-1 thru E107 in high grade with known scarcities being a major plus, for example E90-1 Speaker or E102 Cobb, you could not go wrong on these in mid grade or higher.

T205's, high grade, major HOFers --Again a yes, and I would even say commons in 8-9 here, they are much tougher than other T issues in high grade, evidenced by the low pop of Wendell's T205 set.

T3's, High grade, major HOFers-- Yes, again, even in 5 or better on commons and HOFers.

Cracker Jacks, high grade, major HOFers -Ditto

Other suggested cards, scarce/rare type cards in mid grade or higher(many will only be found in lower to mid grade) i.e. Victory tobacco, Mono, E99/100 in nice condtion. there are many more, just a few examples. Also almost in any D card in solid VG or better. And don't forget 19th century tougher issues, G & B, Gypsy Queen, etc

question: high end is equivalent to PSA 6, 7 or 8 ? It depends on the issue, in Caramels 6 or higher would be ideal. Basically each T issue is independent, I would look at the POP reports, lets say T206 with over 4,100 by PSA alone in 7, not really that rare, in 8 over 2,200 still not rare, 260 9's, now we are getting down to desirable levels. In T205's the numbers drop quite a bit approx 800 in 7, 181 in 8 and 4 9's. T207's and T204's are even more extreme.

I think one has to use some "6th sense" as well, going thru ebay on a daily basis you see so many Cobbs, Matty's, Johnson's etc of common issues you quickly realize they are just not that rare. However when you spy something that you just never ever see, that 6th sense kicks in and tells you, you may not see one of these for a long time, if interested, load up and bid or have no regrets. This is the type of card that may appear on ebay once a year or less. Ditto with the major auctions. Browsing thru them you again become benign to the run of the mill cards seen daily, but really become excited when something you have not seen forever or never shows up.

Scott

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

There are some non-mainstream sets (e.g., Four Base Hits, Just So, Kalamazoo Bats) that have enough of a collector base as to qualify certain cards within them as solid long-term investments.

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Posted By: JimB

I agree with Scott B's analysis across the board.
JimB

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Posted By: barrysloate

Scott- I can't ever recall seeing a T205 graded PSA 9. Granted there are only four, but have any of them ever come up for auction?

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Posted By: steve

OK, so we are talking minimum $5.k cards here, a nervy ebay transaction. I see why the big auction houses mostly handle this type of high end stuff - security for all.

The caramels often have pictures that, while colorful, do not really look much like the player - some do - maybe go after those.

The Cracker Jacks have wonderful eye appeal, colorful and realistic. Add 'em to my want list

I have never been too crazy for the T205 pictures, some folks like them though.

T3's - too large a size for my tastes, again, others are fond of them.

I would add nice for the grade, solid NM, major T206 HOFers to the list. ebay currently has not one single major T206 HOFer in PSA 7. They will always remain prized posessions. Makes my want list.

thanks all, steve.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

last four T206 Mathewson portrait PSA 7 sales

11/4/07 eBay $5,299.00
10/10/07 eBay $5,150.00
10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00
4/3/06 Mastro $8,529.33

last three T206 Johnson portrait PSA 7 sales

4/28/07 Mastro $8,907.60
10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00
8/20/06 eBay $10,567.90

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Posted By: Darren

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

"Scott- I can't ever recall seeing a T205 graded PSA 9. Granted there are only four, but have any of them ever come up for auction?"

Man, would I like to see one of those. Does anyone on the board have a scan of one?

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Jeff,
Why didn't you pick on Cobb????? Because he's your favorite????
Be well Brian


PS The pop numbers don't surprise me, as there are lots of T206's out there... But not many with "rare backs"... smiley

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jeff- in both your examples Goodwin outperformed Mastro by a wide margin. What's the explanation for that?

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
Timing..... Be well Brian

PS My KB Bats didn't get a 50 like your Maul in the auction, but it did get a nice 40.... and maybe a .5 grade in the future... smiley 45 would be funny looking...

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Posted By: scott brockelman

Of the 4 T205 9's one is in the top T205 set that has since been broken up, Wendell Smith's T205 will likely never be duplicated. The others are unaccounted for, I would not have been surprised if owned most or all of them, but alas only 1 and it's Frank Chance.

It could be worse, in T204's there is one lone 9, owned by Peter.

Corey is correct on his 19th century mentions, while not mainstream, uncategorically rare and desirable, a can't fail strategy.

Steve is also correct on his comments, many of the caramels do not represent the player well, but remember we are talking pure return and not asthetics. Which is a major factor in my personal collecting, I much favor real photo images, not art work renditions. However, some great performing stocks or funds are not so glamorous either.

Lastly no one is wrong or right on this realm of cards being an investment vs. collectible, each person has their own defintion and desires.

I do disagree with a few that if the market tanked(which it won't), that there would be quite a few savvy individuals loading up on cards and not Money Market or CD's which would pay next to nothing as the interest rates would be near Zero in an effort to revive the economy(which may happen). It would be akin to buying houses or raw land after a market severe drop in prices, essentially everything is on sale.

This morning I talked to one of my wealth management advisors(their title, not mine) and their advice was not to bail and not to short, but to hoard cash for the near term and be ready to put it in the market after a few months after things have settled down and a bottom has been established, buying back in before the market starts to trand back upward, buying while stocks or funds are "on sale". I believe this same strategy could apply to cards, expecially if you feel they are coming down in price as say the T206 in 7 example, pick a target price, say $300 or $350 or whatever you feel is a bargain and buy like crazy. On the next upswing, which is probably inevitable, sell off into the strength.

Just my thoughts.

Scott

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Brian, you should know why I didn't pick on Cobb--because he's my favorite he never goes down in price! Lucky me!

Barry, must be Goodwin's creative advertising.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I agree with Scott's sentiments mostly. However, I have a lot of contact with Wall Streeters; their bad feelings about the economy is almost universally bleak -- on a level that I have not seen in a very long time.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Jeff,
I know.... That's why I have a bunch too.... Cobb..... The imagination runs wild, but his "silent rage" settles on the willingness to do anything to win... I would love to use a time machine to watch him play.

Be well Brian

PS I would also pay a good chunk of change to go back and watch Bobby Jones in his prime... Two totally different men from the same area and time who chose to live remarkable lives in totally different manners.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Scott,
I agree.... And I have seen it over and over again. Watch a few Key Stocks too... One being GE.... Alright back to cards...

Be well Brian

PS Scott leave my favorites alone.... and you know what they are...

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Posted By: barrysloate

I just find it curious that Goodwin outperformed Mastro by about 30% on two key cards...it's not like Mastro is leaving all this money on the table. It's a pretty big operation. Just saying a lot of what I see doesn't make much sense.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
Timing.... same price, same buyer???

10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00
10/4/06 Goodwin $11,354.00


Bad data? or same buyer? I don't believe in coincidences...




And then the most obvious.... BUY the Card not the holder..

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Posted By: Dave F

Would anyone agree that with the caramels like E94, E95, E97 and E98 that maybe even when you get into the SGC 70 range your talking high end? I know the E98 Bender SGC70 that was sold this week on ebay I was paying attention to see the ending price.

And it seems when you get into the even more rare E cards...E99, E100, E107 that once you get around a SGC 40 your talking fairly high grade...just IMO.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Brian- I just find it strange that there would be such a discrepancy between the two auction houses. Slight differences can always occur, but those are not thinly traded cards, they're classics. Just doesn't make sense.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Barry, of course it's obvious how Goodwin can blow away Mastro who can blow away ebay:

Marketing.

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Posted By: Anonymous

I agree with a lot of what Scott has to say, with the exception of high grade T206s. I just can't see cards from such a common set holding value in any kind of crisis. We'll get a real, live test of Scott's theory when the Baltimore News Ruth (REA) and the Tin Top Jackson (Mastro) trade this April. If he's right, these items will do fine despite weakness in many of the more common items. Regarding the Thorpe, I know some of you thought it might bring more money, but in my opinion that is top dollar for a pog. Colgans chips have never been popular. The Jackson won't trade much higher, but still at a big price for a chip.

My experience is that when prices weaken, the most rare and desireable items go into hiding until prices start climbing again. The last few major auctions have been relatively weak, in my opinion. Lots of desireable, but common cards to choose from. We are entering a market like the mid-90s after Copeland. The only sellers will be those who have to sell and the prices realized will decline. It is a great environment to collect for the sake of collecting, upgrade, hoard favorite sets, etc.

Actually, periods of price weakness are healthy once in a while. They help seperate collectors from investors. Bring it on.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

My understanding is that Mr. Goodwin knows his collectors. He knows what they're after. He also works the older collectors who're gradually selling a few cards (which is how David B does it, years of trust... ). Mr. Goodwin then will get a card or a set he knows collectors are after, he takes the card to a few shows before the auction to "show" the card and drum up interest. He'll let the special collectors know he's found what they want.

Then he sits back while they bid 'em up.

I think Mr. Goodwin does that by outworking Mastro.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

december mastro's auction 2005

1911 T205 Gold Border Frank Chance graded PSA MINT 9 went for $19,785.00

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

I agree with the comments of RICHARD M and SCOTT B.....and, I share Scott's optimism in the economy.
95% of the US work force is employed. And, that is the prime indicator of how well the economy is per-
forming. The constant "drum-beat" by the media of a "recession" is a figment of their imagination that is
intended to influence the voting public in an election year. Unfortunately, this makes an impact on many
who tune in to this media.
This "sub-prime" crises is similar to the "Savings & Loan" fiasco in the early 1990s; and, will subside after
this Presidential election, if not sooner. Approx. 96% of home owners in this country don't have a problem
with paying their Home mortgage or their Equity loans

Another prime indicator of our economy is the DOW's performance over the past 26 years, as it illustrates
the resiliency of the US economy.

During the 1980's the DOW went from 800 to 2800.....in Oct of 1987 the Stock Market had a "glitch" that
caused the DOW to dip down to 1700.

During the 1990's the DOW climbed from 2800 to 11,500.

A mild "recession" in 2000 caused the DOW to drop to 10,000.....and, the terrorist attacks on 9/11 caused
the DOW to drop down to 8500.

From 2002 to 2007 the DOW has increased from 8500 to 14,000......the macro-economics of our Financial
System has shown us that our economy will keep recovering. And, how does all this translate to the value
of your BB cards ?

You can graph BB card values with the track record of the DOW since 1980; and, you will be surprised how
close these two graph curves match each other.


TED Z

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Posted By: boxingcardman

The question is when. There's an old saying: never wrong, only early. If the economy craps the bed when you happen to be nearing retirement you are screwed. If you have 20 years to recover, it is no big deal.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

ADAM W

Think positive guy......I cannot believe you are buying this media's "recession hype" ?
You are too smart for that.

When I last posted here at 10 AM, the DOW was down 300 points.
The DOW just ended POSITIVE 300 points....a 600 point POSITIVE swing....WOW !

Me thinks the economy's premature demise has been greatly exaggerated.

TED Z

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Posted By: barrysloate

Well it's certainly volatile, no doubt about it.

(Psst...but it's not the media's fault, for the record.)

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Ted, I love your optimism.

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Posted By: Rich Klein

The biggest problem with the credit crunch; sub-prime; etc. is not that almost all of the people who bought homes did so with the understanding that they could afford the payments; it's not only that a group of people went into homes with ARM's that brought them in; but also it was that supposedly smart bankers bought into the same hype that property values would just continue to explode.

So you have people in homes they had no right to be in; both poorer people and people severly over extending themselves-- AND banks playing right along because this was a nice new punch bowl for them to drink out of.

And like usual in America, the only people that get hurt, are your average citizen -- not the rich exec's who made these horrible bets and leave with hundreds of millions in severance or those idjits who did what they never should have done; but will still be bailed out by our government. Why can't THOSE people take responsibility for their actions and mistakes?

Rich

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Rich, those people are too busy smoking pot at Bridge tournaments and spending their 50 mil a year salaries...

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Posted By: paulstratton

How do you play Bridge after smoking pot?

Barry...so the media isn't at least partly to blame? Negativity sells. I'm sure they'll find something else to focus on after they realize we aren't going down the toilet.

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Posted By: barrysloate

The media isn't perfect by any stretch but I believe the people in charge have to be held accountable. A lot of bad policies, the mortgage crisis, our dependence on oil, and a host of other issues have gotten us where we are today.

I'm just not comfortable with the idea of blaming the messenger. If my auction tanks tonight and my consignors are angry, I can't blame it on my computer. I have to take the heat.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Your COMPUTER is devoid of emotion and hence....devoid of "bias". Unlike 90% of the "jokers" in
the media, that present the "news" to us. Approx. 96% to 98% of home owners have no problem,
yet the media chooses to present the "doom and gloom" of about 2-4% that are at risk.

The "sub-prime" mortgage crises is primarily the blame of Congress insinuating themselves into
the Bank Lending industry in order to provide risky mortgages to people who really could not
afford the loans.

So, I don't think you'll have to blame your computer tonite....you run one of the best Auctions
and you'll do good.

TED Z

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Posted By: barrysloate

I guess that was a compliment. Thanks.

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Posted By: Joe D.

A Boston Garter 1913 SPEAKER sold in a matter of hours on the BST.

recession?

the good stuff will hold its value. plain and simple.

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

If you're not sure what you've received is a compliment, hope you never have cause to have Ted insult you!

EDITED for spelling (inasmuch as this was intended for Sloate).

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- while the Speaker sold quickly, I'm not sure the sale of a Boston Garter has righted everything that is wrong with the economy.

Let's call it a very, very, small step for mankind.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

"The "sub-prime" mortgage crises is primarily the blame of Congress insinuating themselves into the Bank Lending industry in order to provide risky mortgages to people who really could not afford the loans."

Piffle (as my favorite baseball writer might exclaim). Congress NOT insinuating itself into the mortgage market allowed the wild west mentality to take hold among brokers, lenders and securities firms and led to these ridiculously risky loans. I am on front lines of this issue in my practice. You cannot believe the things I've seen: people who make $10 an hour granted mortgages with payments in excess of their gross earnings, loans granted with no investigation of income, complex loan docs signed by functional illiterates on the hoods of cars (no joke), loans granted to people who hadn't even gotten title to the property, etc. All of this because of the deregulation of the industry as a whole and especially the uncoupling of risk from rewards when the loans were bundled and turned into securities with zero oversight or intervention. In the past the banks would have to eat the loans so they made sure that the property was decent and the borrower sound, but deregulation killed that safety net. No sane underwriter would have made most of these bad loans unless the lax regulatory environment and the resulting market demand for these loans allowed for it. We saw the same garbage in the 1980s S & L scandals where loans were made on appraisals that were predicated on falsified valuations created by shared equity transactions (I once sued a developer who offered every low income buyer a shared equity deal where he would front the downpayment on an inflated property value just so he could get 100% of the real sales price financed and cash out that way). If we had strong regulations and active enforcement in place, we'd all be better off. Now, we're going to eat some of this loss in the form of bailouts and reduced economic activity. We need more regulation, not less, if we are to avoid another fiasco like this, especially regulations that flatly prohibit underwriting of "liar loans," 80-10-10 financing, and similar risky deals.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

Boy, I could not agree more. I too have had some direct experience with some of what you describe and let's just say a LOT of bankers, underwriters, mortgage brokers, lawyers should lose everything they had or ever dreamed of having for what went on, not to mention going to jail. As to the politicians under whose watch all this occured, well just thinking about them is not good for my health.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I don't think the politicians were watching...I think they looked the other way.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
I love Ya.... But don't put your head in the sand... The politicians weren't hiding, but HIGHLY involved... Be well Brian

PS Dems and Reps both.... encouraged what happened.

PS 2 Adam, You are a very smart guy whom I respect, but in this case Ted is pretty well on point. Check the congressional record... they not only encouraged these type of loans,but almost mandated them.


Read your Tocqueville....

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Posted By: Martin Neal

I don't profess to be an economist, but doesn't anyone think that to fight an unpopular war, musn't your economy appear to be strong? And how do you do that.. the Federal Reserve lowers the interest rates it provides to banks, thus boosting low interest loans and spending (especially in the housing market). I, for one, thought that the housing boom lasted unnaturally long. Where does the Federal Reserve gets its money? It prints it! It is my understanding that the European equivalent of the Federal reserve just pumped in Half a trillion dollars just trying to keep pace with our weakening dollar. They have to keep pace with our inflation just to be able to export their goods to us. Why do you think gold has risen so much? In the long term, inflation will probably be more of a problem than a recession.
Excuse me, but two glasses of wine is making my head spin. I don't think it is entirely fair to blame the banks, mortgage lenders and overextended home owners for this mess, blame the people behind the wheel, whoever they are.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Brian- by looking the other way I meant I hold all of those deadbeats, Republicans and Democrats, responsible for this mess. It's not the media who did this, it's the bozos who are in charge. I don't trust any politicians as far as I can throw them, including Hillary, Obama, McCain, et al.

Al Gore for 2008!

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

You are a very informed guy; and, you very succinctly described this situation......

"Check the congressional record... they not only encouraged these type of loans,but almost mandated them."

Thanks.....you said it better than I did.

TED Z