How much money is out there?

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Posted By: leon

Since day one I have always collected the obscure and rare and got luckey in that nowadays they seem to be worth a lot more than when bought. I absolutely DO agree with you that a lot of folks that don't know what the hell they are doing could/have come in and are buying "wrong". My cards are a percentage of my overall investing strategy, not all of it. When I first started ( a mere 8 years or so ago) I didn't think of them as an investment. I love baseball, collecting, and money so they are a great fit for me. Ask Scott B how much I fret about that T205 Johnson I bought from him or John Spencer how much I was stressed over my E102 Cobby purchase. Then when I realized that it was always going to have to be big bucks for good cards, and they could be worth more in the future, it was ok. The wife took a few more years to be somewhat comfortable with it. She asked me yesterday how much I spent in the REA. I told here and she said "WHAT!!" and then went back to watching t.v. regards

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Posted By: John

I hear you DJ, but we also have to take our pre-war blinders off here. We are not the mainstream we are the minority. For every one of us who collects old judges for potential investment or just to collect in general there are 100’s if not 1000’s of people buying Sammy Sosa jerseys and cards. Why do these people buy these items? Because of the precedence’s we have set in the pre-war market. That old stuff is worth money, there for when this Sosa card is 40 yrs old it we worth as much as that 40 yr Mantle card.

Millions and millions of dollars are spent in this hobby on new goods which do depreciate just like cars, stereo’s etc. The stuff that retains value for the most part A.K.A pre-war has a fatal flaw. There is not enough supply to fill the investing or collecting demand of today’s market (hence today’s prices). There is plenty of opportunities in investing be it stocks, real estate, 401k’s, IRA’s etc. In pre-war there is not. If pre-war baseball cards are such a perfect moneymaker, and so much safer and more profitable than any form of investing today. Why isn’t every person in America buying antiques?

Most everything goes up in value with time or as it gets older, Stars Wars figures, clocks, furniture, cars, coins, glassware etc. Baseball cards aren’t alone here. All of these hobbies have had their dips too. I think ours is fast approaching.

Dick mainstream or not actual rarity or availability of items has very little effect on price. Perfect case in point T206 Wagner vs. Leon’s “Four Base Hits” Kelly card, which is more valuable and more in demand.

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Posted By: John

Leon thanks for the response.

I’m not trying to beat anyone up I too am a collector and have very little money invested in my collection. If and when I sell I plan to make some good money. I just think its very dangerous what we say, or insinuate about cards being such a great investment as a way of justifying or dirty little habit. It can sometimes bring in un-educated investors into what is being described as a fail-safe gold mine. This in turn drives up prices and may very well hurt the hobby.Everyone here can point out the good buys, but there have also been some bad ones too I’m sure of it.

And Leon I too would take your “Four Base Hits” Kelly or Western Playground set over Microsoft any day. But I’m a collector. Not an investor.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

and as you acquire the things life is made of (spouse, home and kids, for almost all of us), your ability to control what you do with your money shrinks. When I was single and living in a dumpy little apartment I had an income many times that of my costs. Now, I have a minimum nut to cover every month so large that I know that the first 90% of my income goes to that and that alone. Almost all of that money is consumed (although the mortgage payment could be viewed as a real estate investment), meaning it is paid out for things that we either eat, use or that have no real remaining market value after I buy them (I don't count garage sale type value as any value). What can I do with the remaining crumbs:

1. Consume it on luxuries
2. Invest it in something "safe" that will earn me maybe 4.5% a year, tops
3. Buy stocks and hope that the ones I choose are more Google and less Enron or Worldcom or Global Crossing or Tyco or...you get my drift.
4. Invest it in hard assets and hope they appreciate or at least hold value relative to inflation.

I'd enjoy option #1 but at the end of the day would probably regret the consumption (some wise older folks in fact recently told me not to do that because they are now regretting it in their 70's). Option #2 won't lose my money but a single really good move in option #3 or #4 would do in 1 year what 10 years of option #2 does. Since I am relatively young, that's why every financial analyst preaches looking to go long when possible with an investment that has the best ratio of risk-reward that you can stand. So we are left with #3 and #4. My wife gambles in #3, heavily. I don't want to put the last bit into it too. That leaves hard assets, either real estate or chattel. I could buy income producing real estate, except that I don't want to take what little time I have to managing and maintaining income producing real estate--tangible hard assets never have broken toilets, they don't need to be evicted for non-payment of rent, they don't need maintenance--nor do I want to pay perpetually out of pocket for someone else to manage real estate. Plus, with a house I am already effectively "into" real estate more than I'd like to be (I wish I could put in a stop loss on my house value). So we are left with hard assets that don't need to be managed or maintained: art, gems, bullion, collectibles. Art is frought with fraud and unless you are dealing in masterpieces, it is extremely hard to recoup your investment because the market is controlled by a cartel of dealers and auctioneers who have most of the inventory and make the market. Diamonds/gems? Again, frought with fraud and controlled by a cartel that effectively sets the price by restricting supply. Bullion? I remember my father making a killing in gold in the late 1970's by buying and selling Krugerrands during an inflationary spike. I have often thought of buying gold instead of cards for the long term. But hard gold (not securitized gold, which is really just a variant on #3) only makes money in times of calamity. In other words, it is the ultimate timing-dependent asset. That leaves collectibles. I don't find other forms of collectibles to be interesting, so cards are it. Which cards, that's like choosing stocks. I've been remarkably successful over the years in picking what cards to buy for investment; I'd like to think it is because my enthusiasm for the task leads me to make good predictions.

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Posted By: leon

FYI I sold the Western Playground set.....it wasn't a good investment or anything (joke)...I do see your point about pre-war cards and the euphoria surrounding their surge in prices. It reminds me of back in '97-'98 when I bought stocks and they automatically went up. They never went down...it was like "if I buy Microsoft I should make 50% or more all of the time" which of course is a fallacy. So I do agree with you in that respect. Also, when I sold that Keefe G & B I took a $1400 loss....so there is a downside to this stuff too... very good points made. take care

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Posted By: jay behrens

Star Wars is a dead market, even with the new movie coming out. I recently sold a nice group of 14 figures on eBay that went for a whopping $17. 5 years ago, they would have gone for close to $100, if not more. I still have the Imperial Shuttle Tiburion and am scared to death to sell it because I fear what it might sell for. It used to be $1,000 piece, now, who knows.

But yes, in general, various collectibles tend to appreciate over time. And they are always a good hedge against inflation.

the best is advice is what I told everyone in the 80s and has been mentioned here a few times, buy what you like and love. If it goes up in value, great. If not, you still have something you love to look at and own.

Jay

I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: John

I have a PSA 7 OC Imperial Shuttle Tiburion. That I wouldn't sell for all the money in the world.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

1980s cards are up to $0.19/lb. Learn what happened last time baseball cards were touted as an investment. Buy them to enjoy collecting them, nothing more or less.

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Posted By: Paul

As the one who started this thread, I think it's my prerogative to try to get back to my original question. How many potential buyers are there for a $5K lot of vintage cards?

For those of you picky about details, the lot includes a broad diversity of items (from Old Judges to Cubans to Goudeys) so that it will attract at least a passing interest from every vintage collector. (I know, 5K isn't enough to have that kind of diversity, but I think you get my point). Oh, and the lot has no PSA 8-10s, so we can exclude the condition obsessed investors from the calculation. How many collectors do we have out there? 100? 1000?

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Leon makes a great point about the market...a lot of people thought they were geniuses for buying JDSU or CSCO and making 100% per year when in fact they lucked into a raging bull market. Many people have a narrow view of the market and seem to believe that just because the Dow or Nasdaq hasn't done anything for years, that nothing has gone up. Those people have missed bull markets in high yield debt, commodities and commodity stocks, foreign stocks, Utilities, many restaurant stocks, etc.

I have been investing and trading for a living for the past five years and can definitely say that it takes a hell of a lot of work in order to do it well. During the bubble years, too many people that didn't know what they were doing thought they could become rich by investing in garbage companies like DrKoop.com or TheGlobe.com - there was simply too much "dumb money" out there.

If someone came to this board and announced that he or she was new to vintage cards and was now buying thousands of dollars worth of raw T206 Hall of Famers, they would likely be given friendly advice and also deservedly ridiculed. The experts on this board would ask the pertinent questions like whether the person could spot a reprint, a trimmed card, or whether they even knew how to properly grade and value a card. Stocks are the same way - if you don't know how to spot signs of fraud or how to do basic things like read a financial statement, then you are the equivalent of a baseball card collector who can't tell a T206 from a T207. As with any endeavor where your money is at risk, educating yourself is the best thing you can do.

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Posted By: John

Paul I think you may have a hard time getting an answer. We would have to know the financial status of all the collectors in the US to figure out who could afford to purchase the lot if they even wanted too. I’m not quite following where you’re going with this. Please help me out.

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Posted By: John

Greg well said my point exactly. This hobby if you look at from strictly an investment point of view is just as unstable as any other form of investing. Its not safer or better in any way. We argue that it is because all of us here have a passion about the stuff and very few of us would ever have the same passion about a stock in any particular company.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Richard, that is one of the best comments ever on this board...I'm still laughing as I type this.

I can just imagine them trading on the Chicago Merc too, right along with the pork bellies and cattle.

"I need 1000 pounds of 80's Baseball Cards for June delivery"

"Donruss, Topps, or Fleer?"

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Posted By: John

Yeah Greg it’s a jungle out there I lost 23,000 pounds of Fleer to frost last year. Didn’t see that coming.

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Posted By: jay behrens

I lucked out. Rats chewed up all the 80s cards I had in the attic. The chewed up cards turned out to be great insulation which went a long way to lowering my heating bill.

Jay

I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Paul

I know there's no way to get an exact answer to my question. I was just looking for rough guesses on how many people you have seen drop that kind of money on a single lot of vintage cards.

Based on what some others have said, it may actually be a huge number, since almost anyone can affort to buy a $5K lot of cards if they are willing to sell off most of them to pay for the few they really want. That was a possibility I hadn't really considered when I started this thread.

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Posted By: Texas Ted

One thing everybody is forgetting is that for all the money spent on these auctions, somebody is selling. How much of the money spent is "new" money, and how much is just proceeds from sales of stuff in the same auction, or the prior one?

Texas Ted
Starting my third attempt at a second childhood.

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Posted By: DJ

The $800 bag is long gone and I'm happy to say that. I am a collector but I'm also a realist. There will always come a point when you have to say 'it's time to let some stuff go'. Then you guys will start a thread here on 'The DJ Collection' (you bet those babies are getting slabbed with my name) and you can talk about how my Scrapps set is over $250,000 (this is the year 2060) and a thread will be started about how one person needs the Hanlon and another needs Welsh.

I may have to start a thread here shortly about what the loved ones in our lives think of our obsessions and why we can start a thread on beloved vertical cards and get excited to win a piece of paper.

I agree one hundred percent at some of the comments left after I left mine. I know a man who invested $3,000 on J.D Drew (L.A Dodgers slug) baseball cards and another person who thought they could retire on rare 'Beanie Babies'. I just can't take anything seriously as an 'investment' born into the market suddenly like this. What has happened to those who saw an upside on rookie cards of players like George Brett, Nolan Ryan, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr. and weren't we paying like $500-800 for PSA9's of Mark McGwire in 1998? I think I saw one sell for $23 a few days ago on eBay.

The way I look at it is that there is so much demand in pre-war baseball cards because it's so limited and more people (more people with money) are discovering it. Not everyone can own a Ty Cobb T206 with a Ty Cobb back and I bet there are hundreds and hundreds that can afford one with only a small amount out there and everytime one goes up for auction, those waiting will get another shot and cause the price to rise more.

Either way, I hope the bubble does burst (not too much of a burst) so I can increase my rate of purchase.

DJ

P.S NO WAY IN HELL WILL I HAVE MY STUFF GRADED WITH A PERSONALIZED SLAB!

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Posted By: barrysloate

Might as well get my two cents in here. Investing in vintage cards has certainly proven profitable over the last several years and that is undeniable. However, I get a sense that prices in certain areas of the market have risen too drastically and much of it makes very little sense. There is a very deep market for inexpensive and medium priced vintage cards. But when you begin to see some of the astronomical prices that some cards attain- a quarter of a million dollars for a 1914 Babe Ruth card, for example-it makes you want to look a little deeper at why some have risen so dramatically. From my long experience in the hobby I'm not sure the "crazy" prices are always an accurate gauge of the market. I would rather look at cards that trade with some frequency and seem to attain strong prices consistently. These are what I refer to as the meat and potatoes of the hobby.
But all overheated markets, as this one can reasonably be categorized, do eventually correct themselves and there is no question the card industry may be in the early stages of that. I'm not talking about a crash- I don't believe that will happen- but there are so many auctions with so many incredibly rare (or hyped as rare) items that at some point the market will just have to take a breather. Nothing goes up forever. There's nothing wrong with investing some of one's money in collectibles but they can and do go down and even some of the high flyers like Old Judge, tough e-cards, and others will not go up forever. I've seen many market dips over the years, and with the economy slowing down don't be surprised if in the not too distant future we will see a slowdown in our industry too. There is an incredible amount of money being channeled into collectibles but there are also many people cashing in and leaving the hobby. The baby boomers who started it all are getting older and many have gotten out. If too much material keeps hitting the market the supply and demand curve will shift and you may see more things out there than people can afford to buy. And with problems in the economy, my advise is not to get too carried away. And that is just one man's opinion.

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Posted By: Elliot

I think a lot of people are buying $10,000 dogs with two $5000 cats. Also, I think that when things turn they can turn quickly as dealers will not be as willing to hold on to their inventory when prices are falling.

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

Just look at the second T206 Doyle auctioned by Mastro, after KO won his - huge drop in price w/o KO bidding and the card was a PSA 3 (while the one KO won for six figures was a PSA 2).

At different dollar increments, you lose many potential bidders. $5k was brought up - when card(s) reach that level you lose a certain amount of bidders. Then at $10k you lose more, etc. etc.

I still believe there are several cards hovering around $5k that are steals and should (and someday will) become $10k+ cards (just like the E98 Old Put Cobb Wesley purchased from me).

The biggest risks I see are the cards such as the 1914 Ruth. When you get to price levels like that, tons of potential bidders are lost. However, with increasing incomes, these worst investments might not be all that bad.

Anyone could turn a great investment into a bad one in vintage cards! This is done by clicking the bid button too many times. I guess the Texas Cattlemen are correct - "bought right is half sold"???

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Posted By: Richard LLOYD

I think the person who bought the "RUTH" card for 210000+
are NOT thinking investment..they are thinking what a COOL card..

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Posted By: dan mckee

Richard are you nuts? I think alot of things are cool, houses, cars, boats, cards, women. But I don't just spend $210,000 on them. That was an investment purchase and probably a damn good one. Dan.

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Posted By: Richard LLOYD

Thanks Dan... sorry, but do not aggree... if you are spending 210000 for a single cards then you are worth MILLIONS of dollars in investments and this is something you wanted!! why would some one worth millions buy a card for 210000 for investment... does not make sense to me.. it was bought bcause he/she can!! and loves cards ..

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Posted By: Richard LLOYD

Thanks Dan... sorry, but do not aggree... if you are spending 210000 for a single cards then you are worth MILLIONS of dollars in investments and this is something you wanted!! why would some one worth millions buy a card for 210000 for investment... does not make sense to me.. it was bought bcause he/she can!! and loves cards ..

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Posted By: dan mckee

I guess you have me on this one, as I do not have that much money and really can't say how one would feel buying that card for that much. I can say pop feels great knowing he got a whooping $1000.00 for one and let another go for $8000.00. Now those 2 would have been decent investments!

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Posted By: Richard LLOYD

Thanks Dan... I just think the person who bought the card is not worried 10 years from now what the card is worth... I am guessing that the person who bought the card used his interest from his bank account to buy the card!! think about that!!

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Posted By: dan mckee

I used my interest to buy my 1993 Cal Ripken refractor. Now I have to build up my interest again from scratch.

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Posted By: PASJD

We are all just speculating unless we know the buyer, but I tend to agree with Richard, I think whoever plunked down a quarter million dollars for the card is not viewing it as an investment, i.e. that person did not make a rational decision to invest a quarter of a million in that card as opposed to other cards, or stocks, or antiques, or whatever. Now it may well turn out that even at that "insane" price the item will only appreciate, as the PSA 8 Wagner did. And the maxim that the rich get richer will once again be proven true. But I still think the subjective motivation was to own a unique card, not to invest.

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Posted By: Bob D

One thing to keep in mind when "investing" in vintage cards is basic supply and demand.

I think that both supply and demand will be affected significantly by the general aging of the population. Large numbers of people did not start collecting vintage cards till the late 70's/80's. Since then more and more people have entered the hobby, without a similar amount leaving the hobby, resulting in greater demand. Right now I'd venture a guess that a large number of collectors are in middle age, especially for vintage collectors.

Over the next 10-30 years as these middle age collectors start selling off their collections for retirement or their heirs do so after they pass on; there will be 1) an increase in the number of vintage cards returning to the market and 2) less people looking to purchase those cards, unless the number of new younger collectors is large enough to compensate for the loss of the older generation. I don't see that happening.

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Posted By: Donald Johnson

I'd say that statement is not necessarily true. Many of the collectors on this board for example are in their mid-late 30's.

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Posted By: Josh K.

To answer Paul's question from my own perspective, the most I have ever spent on any one card is about 800 (a few times). Though I can afford to spend 5k on a card if I wanted to, I doubt I ever will. Then again, when I first got into the hobby about a year and a half ago, I never thought I'd spend 500 on a card.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

Think about stamp collectors, once the primary collecting hobby for the generation before the baby boomers. Prices are still only a fraction of what they were in the 80s blowoff. Buy cards because you want them. They have limited liquidity, high transfer costs, and no intrinsic value.

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

I have to agree with Donald on this one, there s a TON of new collectors out there between the ages of 25-35, I would venture to say that nearly a third of those on this forum fall into that age range. Many of these people remember collecting cards during the 1986-93 boom as kids, and now that they are establishing themselves with good jobs and have discretionary income they are looking to get back into cards.

About cards as an investment, I believe that they absolutely can be investments. However at the same time there isn't (and this is purely my opinion) infinite room for them to continue going up. At some point, and I don't think it is TOO far off, the prices are going to start changing their course. Some areas will be more affected than others. The cards that are truly limited are going to retain their values more-so than those that are found in greater supply. After reading the thread a few weeks back about the number of people out there with complete or nearly complete sets of t206 cards out there, I got to thinking. This forum is only a SMALL percentage of the vintage collectors out there, and probably fairly represents a cross-section of the population of "die-hard" vintage card collectors out there. If there are that many "complete" t206 sets here, just imagine how many are really out there. I personally don't understand the draw to this set, based solely on the # for sale on ebay and everywhere else--they just aren't "rare" enough for my blood. I don't mean to freak anyone out or anything, but IF the market begins to waiver and people begin to sell their holdings, how many t206 cards are going to be flooding the market?

This is just food for thought. I love this hobby as much or more than the next guy, but IF things ever start getting bad what it all boils down to is that what we collect are pieces of cardboard, which DON'T have any inherent value based solely on what they are. But the argument can also be made that the same holds true for any avenue of collecting/investing--if things get bad there is no absolute way of avoiding this, save investing in gold bars and starting your own personal Fort Knox.

In the meantime keep doing what makes you happy, buy what gives you pleasure, even invest if that is what makes you happy (everyone here has "invested" in card that they thought they could sell for more later.) If the bottom falls out of the market, I know for one that I will still be around to pick up any extra pieces of cardboard people throw out.
-Rhett

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Posted By: barrysloate

Richard, you have my undivided attention. And an interesting parallel: stamps have suffered because kids no longer get into stamp collecting the way the baby boomers did. And you know what- most of the younger kids I know are lukewarm about collecting baseball cards- there are many other things that are more enticing to them. Baseball cards have done great the last few years- the next few years is anybody's guess.

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Posted By: Bob Marquette

Just as you should always buy the card, not the holder, you should only purchase cards that you like. I know this goes directly contra to the investment driven guys who post here, but I have always found that if you like a violet colored E94, it doesn't matter if it someday becomes worth less or anything at all. The collector in us buys the cards for their intrinsic and aesthetic appeal. That doesn't mean I won't buy cards to "flip" and use the profit to buy more cards but if the card market collapsed tomorrow, I will still be happy with my collection. It may be a naive and good old boy attitude but I'd rather have a vgex set of T205s than a T210 Jackson that I had to continually sweat about if it were dropping in value. Just my 2 cents.
By the way the PCL market is NOT hot, so send me any nice Obaks, 1911 and 1912 Zeenuts and D311s you have, I'll find a good home for them...

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Posted By: Richard Masson

If the goal is to make investment returns, you want to buy when things are plentiful and ice cold and sell when they are scarce and in demand. We (the collective baby boomer WE) like baseball cards because collected them as kids and appreciate them. Kids today grew up with price guides and plastic sheets. As Tom Hanks said in BIG, "What's fun about a building?". When these kids grow up and have some discretionary income, will they go back and buy 80s rookie cards? Absolutely not. If I was in it for the money, I would buy beanie babies, put them in plastic, and stick them in the garage. They are plentiful, cheap and (except for the adults who got scammed) have many happy memories attached. The fact that this sounds like such a bad idea makes it a good one in the long run. My teenage son understands this concept, but he's a video game afficianado. We put together a run of all the classic Nintendo games (MIB) for very little dough. These kinds of items will be what the kids of today want tomorrow. Think about what our parents thought of our collecting baseball cards.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

We've had a long run of really good auctions where great stuff is changing hands at very high prices and the nattering nabobs of negativity here are calling it a bubble that's ready to burst. Sorry, but I don't see it. Take stocks as a parallel; they can turn from good to bad faster than Aunt Sally's chicken salad at an August picnic but no one says not to consider them investments because they are volatile. Everything is volatile.

Some of what I am reading here is wishful thinking on the part of people who remember the "good, old days" of cheap rare cards and people handing you sacks of old cards and bidding them good riddance, and are being priced out of the market for the cards they want. Well, I wish we could jump into the way back machine and reverse some things (especially many aspects of the last 5 years), but it isn't going to happen.

Some of what I am hearing is just plain sour grapes. If only it would crash, they say, then the "real" collectors could acquire the cards they want. Well, you know what: anyone who spends big bucks on a collection of major cards is a real collector as far as I am concerned. They may be new to the field, they may be rich, they may even (gasp) not like what you like to collect, but don't trash them simply because they outbid you. Bruce McNall and Wayne Gretzky were not collectors; Candiotti is, even if his collection isn't your cup of tea.

Finally, for the finance types, there is simply no tit for tat comparison between cards and stocks, bonds, etc., because of the emotional attachment that collectors form with their collections They just are not the same and any intellectually honest evaluation of market prospects has to take into account the emotional factors involved. Cards are likely to be more sticky downwards in terms of pricing than a stock or bond because a collector can simply opt out of the market and hold his rare cards until he dies. The closest comparison as an investment is probably your house. If the market for your house sucks, you simply stay put; if it is booming, you may flirt with selling. If you really feel that the market has peaked, them you need to call up Mastro and sell out your collection. If that thought makes your stomach hurt, you are experiencing proof that the market for cards is not like the market for stocks or bonds and will not react the same to downturns.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Richard is absolutely right. Investors who get in now when everything is so overheated are certainly taking a lot of risk. If you bought ten years ago, there's nothing to discuss. If people are pouring money in for the first time in 2005, they will have to pay world's records for everything. That is not a safe entry level.

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Posted By: craig

I agree with Barry S. and Richard M.
I spend a LOT of my disposable income on cards. Why? Because I LOVE this hobby and am passionate about cards and the history of baseball etc.
I'm not naive enough to think of this as investing. Cards like stamps, beanie babies or fine art are collectibles. They have no intrinsic value and are only worth whatever someone is willing to pay. They shouldn't be mistaken for shares of a company, government bonds,real estate or even gold. I'm not risking my retirement, home, or children's college education on, as my wife would say, a piece of cardboard.
I think the analogy with stamps is scary. There is no guarantee that the next generation will have any interest in spending thousands of their dollars on baseball cards.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Richard,
As someone who grew up on Nintendo and is still a video gamer, I can definitely see the reasoning behind your video game investment. I still have almost all of my old Nintendo games and continue to buy new ones when I discover a good game that I may have missed when I was a kid.

One caveat however, is that the new discs used by the current systems have huge capacities, and it would be relatively easy for Nintendo to release a compilation disc of all their classic games for their new systems. Capcom recently did this with their Mega Man series, releasing a compilation of the NES Mega Man games (along with Mega Man 7 for SNES and Mega Man 8 for PS1) for PS2, GameCube, and XBox. I have all the NES Mega Man, but I tried the new version on my GameCube, and all the games still play just like they do on the old system. The release of that compilation disc has caused prices for Mega Man NES games to come down substantially from where they were on EBay a few years ago.

There will certainly be people that will pay premiums for the original box and cartridge, but the collections of classic games are something to watch out for.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

My take on this just came up in conversation between me and my grandfather when i showed him a couple cards.He asked the prices and then when i told him he said what are you going to do if these cards lose all their value and my honest response was "buy as many as i can and not worry about it,start collecting cards that i couldnt afford before they lost value"

I definitely dont have alot of money but if my cards lost all their value id still have one of the coolest worthless pile of cardboard i could imagine.

The market may drop on cards but i can never see them being worthless because theres a story behind each player thats on the cards and the sets they are in

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Posted By: Richard Masson

Boy are we off topic, but anyone buying a classic game mint sealed in the box is never going to open it anyway. It's a collectible, not to be used. First run Megaman, Zelda, Final Fantasy mint, sealed. They aren't expensive and there aren't many of them.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

People don't get emotionally attached to stocks? They certainly do if they follow the market day to day like people did in the bubble years. It took me six months (and the stock going from 80 to 60) to talk my brother into selling his Cisco...just the thought of selling it made his stomach hurt (just like your example of selling a card collection). At that point Cisco was the biggest company (by market cap) in the world and sported a 150 P/E. My brother had such an emotional attachment to the stock because he, like many others, was used to Cisco going up 100% a year and splitting.

People definitely have more of an emotional attachment to cards, but don't fool yourself...people get emotionally attached to stocks as well, especially ones that have performed well for them.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

I definitely agree on the rarity issue...I have a few sealed games tucked away (maybe five), including a Final Fantasy and a Zelda.

I can just see it now...Larry Fritsch selling reprint Zelda boxes and manuals.

We did stray a bit from the topic...back to the discussion at hand.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

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Posted By: warshawlaw

The CSCO camp follower greedily expected the stock to go up and up and up. He didn't "love" the stock, merely the idea of its financial peformance. Collectors become emotionally attached to their items; as one person noted, if the market bottomed out, he'd just be able to buy more cards. Me too.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Adam,
There are definitely different emotions at play between stocks and cards. With stocks, the emotions of greed and fear can be incredibly powerful and can cause normally rational people to say things like "It's different this time" when greedy or capitulate and sell at the bottom of the market when fearful. I believe it was Warren Buffett who said that his best market advice was "To be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

I agree with you though, that 95% of these crazy prices lately are not due to greed at all, just people who also enjoy the hobby but have more to spend than most of us. The emotional attachment to cards deals mostly with fond childhood memories, a love for baseball, etc, rather than greed. I'm sure it is a nice feeling for people to say "Gee, that E98 Connie Mack is worth about 5 times what I bought it for 10 years ago", but that isn't the driving force behind why they collect.

I too, would welcome a correction in the vintage market, but it doesn't look to be in the cards (excuse the pun) anytime soon. Being able to buy twice the cards for the money I spend would be just fine with me.

All the Best,

Greg

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I agree with what Spiro Agnew said.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

Don't confuse your new dealer hat with your old collector/investor hat.