Is this card really worth that????

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

[Wite3]

Andrew,

I am glad you are able to buy "cheap" AB and Cycle lately but I have to say that most T205 cards have come down...in the last year, cards that went for $20-$25 are now selling for $13-17. Cards in the midgrades have also gone down. The good news is that high grade T205s have either remained steady or increased in price depending on player, demand, and scarcity.

I also hope you know that you will only have a subset of t205s as not all cards come with AB or Cycle backs.

Matty cycle should not be on the list because there are too many of them.
As you keep saying, Cycle is easy to find. Matty is not a short print and was printed as many times as Doyle, Olmstead, etc. We did a quick poll last time this topic came up and I know that at least five or six members came forward immediately saying and showing that they had Matty Cycles.

Price should not be a factor either, otherwise Cobb and Young and maybe Johnson would be on the list since all sell a little higher than some of the cards listed.

Joshua

[Wite3]

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss

The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

[barrysloate]

If I were to posit a guess on the future price of a Matty with Cycle back, I would say it is likely to come down from its $9500 level, but still sell for more than it should with relation to other Cycle backs.

[tbob]

One caveat about the Matty 37-1 Cycle back is that when collectors (myself included) built a T205 set, no significance was given to the company which produced the cards, i.e. Sweet cap, Piedmont, AB, Cycle, etc. I noticed I had far fewer Broadleafs upon completion and no Drums or Hindus but otherwise I was concerned with the fronts and making sure each card had no creases or damage and was well centered and the only back concerns I had were whether there were any ink smudging or marking, staining or paper loss.
The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by tbob

The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Wite3

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by Matt

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

Matt- I know I won't have my Cycle Matty slabbed nor the Wilhelm because all the other cards in the set are raw. I get your point though.
By the way I am not a pop report regular so I was curious how the Latham and Leifeld variations compare with the Wilhelm and other variations. These variations have been known for a long time compared with the relatively short time of Wilhelm and the 37-1 Matty but I was wondering how they compare.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Make that two.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by Matt

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Matt - I'm not sure people are truly making a distinction between the Cycle Mathewson and others. No way is the Joss more rare than the Cycle Mathewson. Unless Joshua is saying that the Cycle Joss is more rare than the Cycle Mathewson (which using the pop report is correct), there is no way that Joss as a whole is more rare than the cycle Mathewson. As far as SGC slabbing, the Mathewson is one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set at 232. I just looked at the Cobb and they have only slabbed 182 (none with a cycle back), Young 111, Johnson 116. It's amazing that you have one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set and only 11 are cycles. Using Joshua's statement that cards are cracked and reslabbed would only mean that there are even less since the same cards are going back and forth between companies. I have been tracking the sale of the cycle Mathewson since the Old Judge auction and I have only seen two that were identified as cycles sold. Both on ebay (Feb 2009 and this one that is currently being listed on ebay). It would be interesting to know where the 3 or 4 that Joshua says sold in the last 6 months were?

tbob - where were the sellers when the one sold for $9503? I didn't see anyone placing their's on the BST. The one currently on ebay was at $3000.00 when pulled. It's odd that others who have them and are saying that there isn't a premium aren't placing theirs on ebay.

r/
Frank

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Matt

There are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

You hit it right on the head, I couldn't have said it any better.

r/
Frank

[Anthony S.]

I will gladly mail the number "1" to whomever wants to affix it to their Cycle Matties. You pay postage.

[asoriano]

Bob,

I don't follow the pop reports closely, but here is some information regarding a few variations.

I can tell you that the "A.P." Leifield variation is pretty easy to find (I've owned four at one time) and doesn't carry too much of a premium. A "3" sells for about $35-$50.

The W.A. Latham pops up for sale every now and then, but is very hard to find in a grade higher than a "4". If you do, expect to pay well.

The Wilhelm "suffered" is very, very tough. In my opinion, it is the second toughest card in the master set and tougher than the Matty Cycle.

Another variation that is very difficult to acquire is the Hoblitzell Name Correct, No Cin. variation. I'd also say that this card is tougher than the Matty Cycle. I wasn't surprised how well the SGC 60 did in the B&L auction. You don't find it often, and when you do, it is usually in low grade.

On a side note, the toughest Hall of Famer, by far, is the Joss. You don't see many examples that grade higher than VG-EX. Lots of collectors for the Joss, too.

As far as the Matty Cycle is concerned, I don't think we will ever see an example go for more than it did in the OldJudge auction. I'm fairly confident it will decline in price over a certain amount of time.

[Wite3]

Oops...some clarification needed I see...yes, I was talking Joss Cycle to Matty Cycle...the Matty Cycle is rare, the Joss Cycle is rarer. Should a Matty Cycle cost more than a Joss Cycle, nope. My list was by card...if you go by scarcity of backs then there are many cards scarcer than Matty cycle (and joss for that matter)...

Oh yeah...Cobb does not come with a Cycle back as far as I can tell.

Joshua

Originally Posted by Wite3

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

In no way shape or form will I arguee this with Josh. I have only been activly building my set for a yr now but I want to create a very unique set with as many not so common backs as possible. Is it going to be worth more? Maybe but Maybe not. Its more of a challenge to do this otherwise I may be done to quick and burn out.

Also if a Joss Cycle sold for just under $1200 then a Matty should be just as cheap right

[Misunderestimated]

I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

[Matt E.]

Originally Posted by Misunderestimated

I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

Why this card, why now? How does one get a card added as a variation?

Matt E.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Matt E.

Why this card, why now?

I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.

[chaddurbin]

this reminds me of the e97 hartsel variation that was added to the registry a few years ago...as soon as it was "deemed" a legit variation by 3rd party auth. the price must've 3x or 4x right away...LOL! from a $75 common that i'd seen come up multiple times (even bought one from tbob) suddenly jumping to $500-$800. absurd hype for the master set collectors....

seems like most of the long time t205 set collectors have come to a consensus on the matty (registry/pop overhype)...i'd rather have the joss cycle because the matty portrait is kinda creepy with those bug eyes (sorry jim).

[lentel]

Originally Posted by T's please

Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by lentel

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

Unless the "suffe ed" version also is found with the Hassan back, then those totals would be correct. If you notice, they have the piedmont listed twice, but we all know that the "suffered" version isn't found with piedmont backs.

[Matt E.]

Originally Posted by Matt

I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.

Matt,
Now that's funny. That's it I'm cracking them all out today.

It really is a pain in the ass hurdle however.

Matt E.

[tbob]

The Hartsel/Hartsell variation is a good comparison as Quan points out. I was able to get a one "L" Hartsel finally when I decided to complete the master set of E97s. It had already started tailing down from its original high price and I expect the Matty 37-1 to do the same.

[Misunderestimated]

I don't know how one gets a "variation" included in the PSA (or SGC) registry. When PSA first listed the T205 set, the Wilhelm and Matty (maybe Moran too?) "variations" were not recognized.
As a longtime T205 collector I want to second the post above about the "multipliers" for the Cycle back. The multipliers are basically a myth except for the really scarce backs. Most of the time a seller will not get any more $ for one back than another in the T205 set. Whether its a Piedmont (really common) or Sovereign or American Beauty or Hassan or Cycle or whatever, it makes little if any difference to the vast majority of buyers. The only time the company on the back really "commands a premium" in the market is when the back is one of the really scarce ones like Drum or Hindu.

[Chris Counts]

I find it hard to believe that anyone was paying $1,000 for a T205 "variation" in 1975 or 1976. I attended card shows then, and I remember picking up sharp cornered T206s, including HOFers, for $1 each!

And I am sure most of us that watched this auction seen the sale end with 0 bidders and a minimum bid of $7500 auction style with a BIN option on the side.

[lentel]

Originally Posted by Misunderestimated

I don't know how one gets a "variation" included in the PSA (or SGC) registry. When PSA first listed the T205 set, the Wilhelm and Matty (maybe Moran too?) "variations" were not recognized.
As a longtime T205 collector I want to second the post above about the "multipliers" for the Cycle back. The multipliers are basically a myth except for the really scarce backs. Most of the time a seller will not get any more $ for one back than another in the T205 set. Whether its a Piedmont (really common) or Sovereign or American Beauty or Hassan or Cycle or whatever, it makes little if any difference to the vast majority of buyers. The only time the company on the back really "commands a premium" in the market is when the back is one of the really scarce ones like Drum or Hindu.

Would you say there is a premium for broadleaf backs

Yes Broadleafs carry a premium. Last nice graded BL I seen auction was a Latham (A.Latham version) on Ebay. It sold for $258.78 in a SGC 5. About 2x's the average.

[Matt]

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

let's hope he doesn't end the listing early.

I wish the description wasn't so aggressive in trying to express the cards rarity by saying it's only one of two graded. Wouldn't it have been sufficient to just use the population reports which indicate it's the 2nd toughest variation behind the Hobby no-stats?

edited to add: that is not my card.

[barrysloate]

The description is incorrect. All Mathewson Cycles reflect one loss; Goodwin states most show eleven losses and a few don't. Somebody should contact him and have him change it.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The description is incorrect. All Mathewson Cycles reflect one loss; Goodwin states most show eleven losses and a few don't. Somebody should contact him and have him change it.

Good call - I will email him - if a few others do as well, then hopefully he will fix it...

[barrysloate]

I'm sure he will fix it. It's a new variation and he may not be familiar with it.

matt I beat you to it this morning. i also sent him links to recent samples for sale also in PSA graded slabs. I hope it does get corrercted

[Matt]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm sure he will fix it. It's a new variation and he may not be familiar with it.

He was kind enough to give me a call just now - he's at the airport and can't change it just now, but will certainly do so as soon as he can. Feels bad that the catalog went out with the factual error and asked if he should pull the listing which I advised against.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Originally Posted by tbob

Make that two.

Andrew, if you didn't win it, keep your eyes on the BST, as several people will be listing theirs today.

The final price w/o buyers premium was $5999.00.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

r/
Frank

yeah frank in a couple yrs the card will be quit a bit less. I am going to wait for the hype to pass before pursuing. I would rather drop $8k on a Hobby no stats.

[marcdelpercio]

I really don't think the prices on this card will drop much over the long run. I hope they do as this is the only card I'm missing towards a master set. However, consider these factors:

1. This has been accepted as a true variation by at least a large percentage of the collecting community (not trying to reopen that debate but I think the evidence is clear).

2. This is one of the most beautiful cards in the T205 set (if not EVER produced) which is widely popular and collected.

3. This is a top-tier Hall of Fame player.

4. This is a scarce card. With all tracking information that I have seen, I think an estimate of 25-50 known copies is pretty accurate.

If Dick Hoblitzell is commanding 6-8k for a poor grade copy of a print variation from the same set, what makes you think that Christy Mathewson can't be at least in that same ballpark? I realize that the Hoblitzell is probably a bit scarcer...but not much. Given the factors I listed, I'm curious to hear a logical explanation of why anybody feels that this card will drastically decrease in demand/value over the long run.

[Rob D.]

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

[barrysloate]

Marc- in the case of the Hoblitzel card there were two separate print runs, one with the stats and one with the area left blank. And the blank version is of course very scarce.

With regard to the Matty Cycle, it is possible that the 37-11 became 37-1 simply because a small foreign substance got on to the printing plate obscuring the 1. To date we are not sure why this occurred. Thus, all the Cycles have the same very minor flaw.

I do think the card will continue to sell for a premium well above the 37-11 cards, but that premium could grow smaller over time. Just a guess though.

[iggyman]

They are coming out of the woodwork...

http://cgi.ebay.com/T205-CHRISTY-MAT...mZ230436778511

So I outed an auction to make a point........well worth the demerit.

Lovely Day...

[marcdelpercio]

Rob,
He DOES have a dark cap and T205's are about the same size as T206's so I think you're being a bit too demanding of the professional graders.

Barry,
I understand that the printing mechanisms and scenarios that produced the variations of the Matty and Hoblitzell cards may be different but I think the end result is the same...a scarce print variation. As I mentioned, I believe that the Hoblitzell is probably slightly scarcer than the Matty, but not by a lot. And given the prices of the variation on a very ordinary player like Hoblitzell, it is reasonable to me to conclude that a similar population print variation of a top-tier HOF'er from the same set could easily match or surpass those values.

[barrysloate]

The Matty very well may hold its value because that is the nature of this hobby. But I still see it as very minor.

[marcdelpercio]

I agree that it is a very minor variation but sometimes one letter or number can make a lot of difference in value. Just ask Sherry Magee or Irvin Wilhelm. Seems kinda silly if you really think about it but such is the nature of the hobby I guess. That said, I hope I'm wrong and the values do drop...at least long enough for me to pick one up for a reasonable price. Then it can go nuts again

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Rob D.

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

This sort of error is on the level of Heine being labeled Honus. There are not many cards that are more iconic than the T206 Mathewson Dark Cap. I would think that every PSA grader has seen this card 100 times.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by calvindog

This sort of error is on the level of Heine being labeled Honus. There are not many cards that are more iconic than the T206 Mathewson Dark Cap. I would think that every PSA grader has seen this card 100 times.

If I get a chance later, I'll scan my red background Cobb that's labeled "Randall Tex."

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Rob D.

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

Not me...I am holding out for the T205 White cap Matty...btw, I do agree the T205 Matty is one of the best looking cards of any pre-war card. I even have one with a Cycle back but it is the error that says Piedmont. I am trying to get it listed but no luck yet .

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by Leon

I even have one with a Cycle back but it is the error that says Piedmont. I am trying to get it listed but no luck yet .

Sounds like an over/underprint!

[Leon]

For some reason there is a chicken print on it....can't figure out why though....(sorry, couldn't help it)