Who will be the buyer of our vintage cards in 20 years?

[barrysloate]

Hi Bob- nice to see you on the board, and hope you are well.

You said what I have been saying for a long time. The hobby is changing, the world is changing, and there will surely be a different landscape twenty years from now. My guess is there will always be collectors of vintage antiquities of all kinds, but there may in fact be less baseball card collectors than we have today. We baby boomers collected cards as a kid, and it was a rite of passage. That no longer exists today. A great many 8-12 year olds never even bought a single pack of cards in their lives, so when they become adults they will have a different perspective on collecting them. Yes, it will change, not necessarily for better or worse, but different for sure.

The issue I have is that everything in the world changes too quickly. Look at technology, everything becomes obsolete in a year or two. I can't keep up with that, and really have no interest in doing so. So my point is we should expect things to change.

[Brian Van Horn]

To quote T206 Collector:

Me

I'm 43 and plan on being around at least another 20 years. I figure collecting will continue to dip given the current economy and then there will be a resurgence with more collectors. I just plan on riding the wave.

[Zach Wheat]

Hey Bob,

Interesting topic. I think there will always be vintage collectors. I was thinking the same thing as you and Barry S. a while back while ruminating about some of my vintage cards. My 9 year old daughter started watching me and looking at the various vintage cards laid on the table in front of me and she actually discovered that you could connect the miscut cards and assemble them like a jig saw puzzle to determine the order of the printing sheet. I had never thought of this until she pointed it out.

She started asking questions about the various players and we a number of fun evening discussing old players from the deadball era. The key was not pushing her - but let her take the questions where her interests lay.

Zach

[toppcat]

Good vintage will always have devotees but where the line is drawn between classic and crap in the future is unpredictable. I think enough people collect cards older than they are now and will continue to do so in the future that good stuff will always be chased. I don't think you need to have been a card collector as a kid to collect now but you probably needed to be a baseball fan. And baseball is booming, football even more so and even with the economy in shambles.

[mintacular]

a very sobering thought. Kids today do not need a photographic image on cardboard to remember their heroes like the good old days. With one click they can look up an image, and even print out a picture themselves if they need to. Come to think of it, many of them don't idolize these players. With all the scandals (Woods, McGwire) for the whole world to see this cannot be good for the sports collectibles industry. In short, technology has killed cardboard collecting for most youngsters.

[Anthony S.]

I'm counting on advances in medical science keeping current adult collectors alive for more than 20 years.

Buy only generic meds so you can afford my cards.

[Leon]

First of all, welcome to the board, Bob.

I like the answer of "who is going to buy our cards in 20 yrs?" as being "me", the best. That being said I believe like the rest of the folks have said, it will be the people that migrate backwards from today's cards as well as those people that like the game, are collectors by habit, and start to have more disposable income as they mature. It's certainly true that kids today have a ton more options for stimuli available to them, than us baby boomers did. I still get a kick out of all the excitement which that recently shown 1937 Kendall Gas game of baseball players advertised, by only collecting the stamps!! It's classic. best regards

[T206Collector]

...but I started collecting baseball cards with force when I was 13 in 1987 because I learned that they had monetary value. Opening packs was a legal form of playing the lottery for a teenager. Plus it kept me up to speed on the players I was watching on TV.

The value inherent in these old pieces of cardboard is a lot of the reason why they will continue to attract attention.

In other words, it was never about capturing a picture of my idol on cardboard. And since at least the 1980s any kids putting down cash for cards have been doing it with an eye on the potential value. I expect that trend to continue with the vintage stuff for at least another generation or so.

[JLange]

But the question for me is who will buy mine? I worry less about the stars and HOFers, and more about whether the accumulation of my other tastes and interests will be desired in the future by anyone other than me!

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Bob- nice to see you on the board, and hope you are well.

You said what I have been saying for a long time. The hobby is changing, the world is changing, and there will surely be a different landscape twenty years from now. My guess is there will always be collectors of vintage antiquities of all kinds, but there may in fact be less baseball card collectors than we have today. We baby boomers collected cards as a kid, and it was a rite of passage. That no longer exists today. A great many 8-12 year olds never even bought a single pack of cards in their lives, so when they become adults they will have a different perspective on collecting them. Yes, it will change, not necessarily for better or worse, but different for sure.

The issue I have is that everything in the world changes too quickly. Look at technology, everything becomes obsolete in a year or two. I can't keep up with that, and really have no interest in doing so. So my point is we should expect things to change.

I agree with Barry but would go a step further. If indeed there are fewer card collectors in 20 years, then I should think values of all cards, as a rule, would decline. It's hard to imagine adults, who never collected as kids, picking up an interest in cards of any vintage. Certainly there will be exceptions, but not enough in my view to reverse a downward trend
in values.

[Jayjones82]

People like myself will be buying your cards. I'm a 27-year-old professional who has been collecting for almost 20 years. My dad bought me my first pack when I was 8 (ah, the 1991 Topps Frank Thomas) and it quickly became a hobby that brought us closer together. He collected as a youth in the 50s and 60s (one of those unfortunates whose mothers tossed their collections) and enjoyed re-living a part of his youth with me. As I've gotten older and could afford it, I've moved into collecting higher-end items (Cobb, Ruth, an e95 set I'm slowly trying to build, etc.). As my earnings, presumably, continue to increase, the scope and depth of collection will increase and, hopefully, I will be able to enjoy the same type of bond with my son (should I have one) that my father and I had. I'm sure there are people out there with situations similar to mine who will end up the same way and probably own your cards someday.

[iggyman]

According to the U.S. census there are currently 310 million Americans. It it expected to reach 439 million by 2050. From a pure numbers standpoint, I just don't see how their could possibly be fewer card collectors in 20+ years. It's a simplistic view, but to me it sums-up the reality of the situation.

Lovely Day...

[Robextend]

Like Jason, I am a younger vintage collector (28 yrs old) and I plan on doing so for as long as I can. I wish I knew more collectors around my age near where I live...

[ethicsprof]

Welcome aboard, Bob.
In 20 years, some of us will be happy to be buying cards, at our advanced ages!
best,
barry

[Anthony S.]

Originally Posted by iggyman

According to the U.S. census there are currently 310 million Americans. It it expected to reach 439 million by 2050.

Wow, parking is going to suck.

[bcornell]

Easy one. I'm taking the cards with me, and I'm going into an unmarked grave. Too many years reading this forum to take foolish chances...

[Rich Klein]

Namely; in 20 years will we as a society even be interested in "stuff":

I use book replacements such as "kindle" and "nook" or IPods which have replaced old records, etc. as examples

Regards
Rich

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Namely; in 20 years will we as a society even be interested in "stuff":

I use book replacements such as "kindle" and "nook" or IPods which have replaced old records, etc. as examples

Regards
Rich

Interestingly, while high end old records are getting hurt price wise due to the idle rich shrinking in number, collecting "normal" old records and releasing new music on vinyl is surging right now. A really popular thing is to sell the record with a download link for the digital version. I think a certain branch of collectors likes the tactile satisfaction in the having the object (or totem, if you will). I believe new vinyl releases are multiplying by the month right now it's such a popular format.

I still try to buy CD's and not just get downloads unless there is no CD release or if I'm trying to get one rare track without paying for a full album.

[barrysloate]

Here's an example about one area of collecting that has done poorly in recent years. As some of you know I collect rare baseball books, and when I wrote my article in 1995 in issue #3 of VCBC, baseball books were a hot collectible. Today, fifteen years later, many rare baseball books can be bought for 50-75% of their 1995 levels! Not only has there been no price appreciation in nearly a generation, but prices have actually come down.

Why? Because there are less serious book collectors today than there were then. When the big collectors sold their collections, there was nobody to take their place. I can recall buying a very nice copy of Peverelly's 1866 America's Pastime in the early 1990's from a private collector for $3100, selling it some years later, and then buying the exact same copy a couple of years ago from a major auction house for $1675! Today it might even be worth less than that.

Now the baseball card market is deeper than the book market, and it is likely that the same thing won't happen with cards. But it goes to show that if the pool of collectors got smaller, it would have a major impact.

[birdman42]

Originally Posted by mark evans

It's hard to imagine adults, who never collected as kids, picking up an interest in cards of any vintage. Certainly there will be exceptions....

Mark,

You can count me as one of those exceptions. As a kid I never got beyond cutting the cards off the back of my mom's Raisin Bran boxes. It wasn't until I was in my 20s that I really got going on collecting.

I think I've told this story here before, but what flipped the switch for me was working in a coin shop where Wayne Miller had a card concession.

I will say that I have been a fan of the game itself for as long as I can remember. The connection was always there, I had just never gone the card route before then.

There are still plenty of fans of the game, even students of the game, who will want the deeper connection they can get from this old cardboard.

Bill

[Rich Klein]

I believe we also had a thread earlier in which we were gathering store names; street addresses; etc.

Please feel free to post your Store Name and address in that thread (or in here) to join the Net 54 list of stores

Regards
Rich Klein

[bbeck]

Barry-nice to hear from you also. I have thought about this question for a few years now. My store is still relatively solid but I slowly see the handwriting on the wall. My customer base is now 80% adults and 20% kids. 5-10 years ago the percentages were the exact opposite. I have always dealt heavily in vintage because that is what I love but have always had a nice selection of the current era. As you stated, everything is changing and I can witness it first hand in the store. Their will always be collectors of coins, cards etc.. and I am not really referring quite as much to the 25-35 age group (they grew up with a more positive collecting atmosphere) as I am sure they will pick up some of the slack. I am in my 40's(the later half) and will always collect as long as I am capable of doing so. I am really referring to the 10-20 year old age group, who are growing up with virtually no interest in cards plus a tainted era of baseball. I do not have a crystal ball and maybe they will gravitate towards collecting vintage cards in their adult years, trends do change, but my gut does not see that happening. With the slow demise of card stores and shows, collecting will become more impersonal through the computer and auction houses, which I personally perceive as another negative. Back in 1976 I purchased my 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth with my dad at my side for $35 at the hotel Roosevelt in NYC. We could not believe we had spent that much on a card and it is memory with my dad I will always cherish. A few weeks back a young boy around age 13 purchased a Ted Williams card (over a t205 Joe Tinker) with his dad at my store and I told them my story. It was a really nice moment that still does happen but it is a true rarity. Again, the best of the best and the true legends will always be collected, I just think it will be tougher for today's kids to overcome their childhood collecting apathy and gulp down all the vintage we have cherished.

[barrysloate]

Bob- as you know I met your dad a number of years ago and he and I spent the day talking about his love of the New York Giants. He was a collector too and if I recall correctly he was a big Carl Hubbell fan.

One of your most striking points is the lack of kids who are now coming into your store. That of course would not bode well for the future.

[PolarBear]

Kids today are rarely interested in anything not video game related. Not good for the future of traditional collectables.

[rman444]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

Kids today are rarely interested in anything not video game related. Not good for the future of traditional collectables.

Not good for the future in general.

[prewarsports]

I used to worry about this a little but I dont anymore. 10 years ago my Brother Rhett and I (at 23 and 22 years old) were by far the youngest guys on the Fullcount board and someone asked the same type question. Here 10 years later we are bit older in our early 30's but there are new younger guys that are getting into it or coming back into it. As long as there is a fascination with Baseball and Sports History, there will be demand for related Antiques. Areas of collectibles will fluctuate with modern trends but I would be more worried about stamps and coins than something that kids always have and always will participate in like sports.

Rhys Yeakley

[barrysloate]

Bob- I remember him telling me about that Hubbell trophy, but he did not have it with him so I didn't get to see it.

[mcap100176]

I don't think "the tainted era of baseball" will have anything to do with cards. 75 million people went to MLB games in 2009, and how many more went to the cheaper minor league stadiums. I would wager that only a small portion of the baseball following public cares about steroids/PEDs.

I am 33 years old. I am at age where all my friends are having or have had kids. Guess what? All the boys play baseball, all the boys collect cards of today's players. All their dads are teaching them the history of the game. If they stay interested in cards, they'll find the vintage stuff.

Concerning what the future holds....
1. Commons are called commons for a reason. Nice to have but when my friends are over and I pull out my Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, etc., eyes open wide. Not just my friends, but my father's friends have asked me to bring over vintage stuff.

2. The internet has been a godsend.
A. Cheap and easy way to trade and buy.
B. Without the internet, we wouldn't be having this discussion
C. Opened markets where there wasn't a market before

3. The future
A. Big names will always sell
B. Rare items will always sell
C. High grade will sell
D. The internet is the future, no more store fronts
E. Shows will continue to happen just not as often
F. Card will be viewed as a commodity for today's "older statesmen." Today
it's a collection & hobby, tomorrow the commodity will be sold off for
retirement, to pay for medical bills, etc.
G. Something will come along to replace Ebay as the main sales venture.

To add:
I am not concerned about going to a store. I would rather sit at home, and compare prices and have something delivered. Search Ebay and use VCP to find what I want and if I don't like the price, wait.

This isn't a generational thing any more. This year at Christmas I had 3 people come up to me at family parties saying they did all their shopping online like I do (We talked about it the year before) and they will never go to a store again.

PS. I also play video games.

[smtjoy]

Real good thread.

I think many have mentioned the collecting gene a lot and I also believe in it. Because of that while we can have no idea what kids today will collect when they are older we do know that many of them will collect something. So they very well may collect cards when older just because they remember the game and the memories it gives them. I think baseballs popularity has a lot more to do with collecting cards later on than if you did as a kid or not.

I never saw the Ruths and Cobbs play much less the Clementes and Jackie Robinsons but I stongly collect them and I dont really see any less demand for the real greats in the future.

This got me thinking, how have the prices of vintage boxing cards done over the years. To me its a sport thats seen a huge decline in fans in the last 30-50 years or so and I wonder how the vintage cards are doing? Did they peak years ago? The only boxing cards I have purchased have been Dempsey, Louis and Ali exhibits, how have the top fighters cards done over the last 30 years or so vs all the other boxing cards? I wonder did most of the people collecting vintage boxing today, collect them as a kid or not?


While I loved the card shows and stores of the 80's, if it was not for the internet I would not be collecting today.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by bbeck

Back in 1976 I purchased my 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth with my dad at my side for $35 at the hotel Roosevelt in NYC. We could not believe we had spent that much on a card

Holy crap! In 1976 my father and I went to the ASCCA Thanksgiving show at the Roosevelt in NYC and I borrowed $25 above my savings to close on 1952 Topps and 1953 Topps Willie Mays cards. We also could not believe what we'd spent (and my mother was seriously ticked off at him for letting me do it). Talk about coincidences...And it turned out to be one of the best investments I have ever made. I sold the cards a few years later for 20x what I paid for them.

As far as 20 years from now, my responses are:

1. I plan to be around and actively collecting, so the cards will be just where they are now--gathering dust, like me.

2. If I happen to be gone, who cares? I will have had my fun and will not be in a position to do anything about it anyhow.

3. If the card market crashes to oblivion tomorrow I have still had a great time of it and will still collect--just with a lot more cards for the buck. Profit or losses are just numbers on an insurance valuation form if you do not plan to sell your cards. I don't. "Collecto ergo sum"--I collect therefore I am.

Scott, as far as boxing cards go (and I think I have a bit of cred on this issue), prices have declined over the last two years on all but the best stuff, which I love BTW, but I don't think we have reached the potential on the issues. Same with nonsports. Baseball cards have become the province of the really well off and wealthy. When I started out I could realistically promise myself that I could afford a Wagner some day. Now it is just a fantasy. The same is true of many other marquee vintage baseball cards. Boxing, I can still afford even the most expensive cards.

One other general observation on something that I think we often miss: fan bases for sports overlap with but are by no means congruent with collectors of cards from those sports. I know a lot of card collectors who do not follow the current versions of the sports in which they collect. I feel you either have the collecting bug or you don't. Case in point is one of my friends from the "outside" who is a huge sports fan but who could not care less about collecting anything from the sports he follows. He has a few pieces displayed in his rec room for atmosphere but that's it. He'd rather go to an insurance seminar than to a card convention and he thinks what we do is nuts. I haven't followed football since the Raiders left town and I haven't followed hockey since Gretzky retired but I collect cards from those sports from the 1960s and 1970s.

[bbeck]

judsonhamlin-I am in Livingston, New Jersey. I have a website which will post directions. I do not know if I am allowed to post a website address on these boards so I will not.

Exhibitman-The Thanksgiving 1976 show is the exact same show we purchased the Ruth card. What an incredible show, no price guides and $10 could buy you a t206 Cobb. We both got great deals, I held onto my Ruth and it will stay in its raw state forever.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bbeck

judsonhamlin-I am in Livingston, New Jersey. I have a website which will post directions. I do not know if I am allowed to post a website address on these boards so I will not.

Exhibitman-The Thanksgiving 1976 show is the exact same show we purchased the Ruth card. What an incredible show, no price guides and $10 could buy you a t206 Cobb. We both got great deals, I held onto my Ruth and it will stay in its raw state forever.

Bob- Thanks for your courtesy in showing restraint. A true gentleman you are. That being said we don't really want links to other chatboards as that is what we are. Every once in a while a Collectors Universe link gets posted, or our friends at SGC have their link posted, and that is ok to an extent. You are welcome to post a link to your website if you would like to. Thanks again for your courtesy.

To what Adam said right above- I am in the vast minority and am exactly opposite of what you said. I could care less about today's pro sports, for the most part, but I love collecting old baseball cards. best regards

[bbeck]

Leon thank you - I joined the board because its a great pool of knowledge with some fantastic one liners -Bob