Still crazy prices

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Seven

I can at least justify the price of that though. It's Satchel Paige. He's one of the greatest pitchers to ever play. Why anyone would spend 1000+ on a card of Anthony Volpe is beyond me.

Why would anyone pay $660,000 for a card of Sheree Magee? (I'm sorry, I hope I didn't spell it wrong.)

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[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Why would anyone pay $660,000 for a card of Sheree Magee? (I'm sorry, I hope I didn't spell it wrong.)

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Is that a thing?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Is that a thing?

Yeah, but it's a 1-of-1, haha. (PSA 8 T206 "Magie" sold for $660k @HA, 9/20/18.)

You could buy 660 Volpes, if you could find that many.

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[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yeah, but it's a 1-of-1, haha. (PSA 8 T206 "Magie" sold for $660k @HA, 9/20/18.)

You could buy 660 Volpes, if you could find that many.

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With 660K I could preset an incredible pre war collection that would not include that card.

[Exhibitman]

This is really nothing new. Cards have always been an investment (at least for the last 40-50 years). As I view things, the casino-level action that inspires modern is a symptom of a speculative bubble, not an end in and of itself. People who get into trouble bubbles conflate the two every time.

I don't think there is a serious debate to be had that a sizable percentage of newbies are engaging in a form of young player/new card speculation that has a long track record of failure. The cabinets of longtime collectors are littered with the cardboard images of flashes in the pan, from Ron Kittle to Kevin Maas; we've all got piles of junk (damn you Keston Hiura). Pete Reiser and Herb Score Tony C., we feel your pain with our stacks of your cards. Most prospects will go sour, as will their cards. There is no reason to believe that the people speculatively accumulating cards of shiny new players will have a different outcome than everyone else who followed that strategy in the last 40 years. What does stand out today is the steep trajectory of the price increases and the resulting incredible sums at risk, so much more than in any other rookie card run. I don't really care that the twenty bucks I put into Topps Walgreens yellow Hiura cards is gone; I would be shitting egg rolls if I'd spent thousands on a signed shiny limited edition thingy. The scary thing about modern is that there are tons of very expensive signed shiny limited edition thingies that place really large sums of money at risk and that new ones come out practically every week.

There is also a meme component to it. Lots of peers valuing these cards so they go along to get along, and market be damned.

From a financial perspective, I am not sure the newbs understand that the hobby is a particularly brutal investment when it comes to new players and modern cards because the bet can go to zero very fast and there is no hedging or exit strategy available. Even in a falling stock market, you can set a stop loss and get out, and real estate never goes to zero, it cycles, but when Sam Horn goes down the tubes there is no exit and no bottom except the commons bin. Babe Ruth does not go down the crapper the way the latest, greatest thing will when his WAR falls to 1.8 (yeah, looking at you, Pete Alonso).

Kids are always going to get into the current stuff; we all did. I was abuzz every year with the latest offerings from Topps, and crazy to get that rookie (I recall 1976's Willie Randolph and Ron Guidry RCs with great fondness today as the young stalwarts of the first Yankees team of my childhood to win a pennant). Man, how I chased those cards. A percentage of those kids trading cards will study history and become intrigued with the past, like all of us did; no one is born with a desire to buy a Harry Hooper card. They always do, and the 'boring' cards from 100-150 years ago will come to life for them and that itch will start. First it is the Mt. Rushmore players: Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Robinson, etc. Then, it is the next tier down, and so on, until they are chasing regional Claude Osteen cards for their Dodgers franchise collections. It is the journey of a lifetime of collecting.

[cubman1941]

As one who sold all his modern at an auction years ago and sometimes thinks “I should have held on to that Jeter, etc,” and one who passed even more years ago on buying pre-1955 cards because they weren’t Cubs, I still don’t understand the prices or asking prices for todays modern cards. One thing that hasn’t been mentioned and is relevant, is today’s trading. I used to do a lot of trading but today most younger traders only want PSA 8 or 9 or 10. This goes along with today’s buyers. Traders want to trade for the high graded cards because they think they can flip them for a big price. Lost is the fun of trading – found is only “what can I sell it for”.

[Snapolit1]

Not a breaking revelation of any kind, but I suspect there are small groups of investors who own many of these 1 or 1 shiny things selling for $900,000 and some of the bidding is people with a vested interest in keep the market at a certain level. Propping up cards that will hopefully help them sell higher down the road. Like a bunch of rich professionals telling each other what the hot neighborhood or condo complex is going to be the next big deal.

Doubt many people with no knowledge of sports collecting wake up one morning and decide it would be a good day to spend $700,000 on a Jasson Dominguez cracked ice refractor.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not a breaking revelation of any kind, but I suspect there are small groups of investors who own many of these 1 or 1 shiny things selling for $900,000 and some of the bidding is people with a vested interest in keep the market at a certain level. Propping up cards that will hopefully help them sell higher down the road. Like a bunch of rich professionals telling each other what the hot neighborhood or condo complex is going to be the next big deal.

Doubt many people with no knowledge of sports collecting wake up one morning and decide it would be a good day to spend $700,000 on a Jasson Dominguez cracked ice refractor.

Yes, the market is thin for high value cards and is made up of people who have a lot of money and are looking for things to spend it on. I really don't think it's those guys' investment advisors that tell them to buy baseball cards though. They buy them because they enjoy having them. If their rich friends are envious they buy them too and prices go up.

That said, I think one reason card prices took off during the COVID bubble is there were a bunch of ballplayers who decided to see who could put together the best Topps refractor All-Star team. I'm not sure if that had anything to do with Dominguez, but those cracked ice refractors are pretty cool.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by cubman1941

As one who sold all his modern at an auction years ago and sometimes thinks “I should have held on to that Jeter, etc,” and one who passed even more years ago on buying pre-1955 cards because they weren’t Cubs, I still don’t understand the prices or asking prices for todays modern cards. One thing that hasn’t been mentioned and is relevant, is today’s trading. I used to do a lot of trading but today most younger traders only want PSA 8 or 9 or 10. This goes along with today’s buyers. Traders want to trade for the high graded cards because they think they can flip them for a big price. Lost is the fun of trading – found is only “what can I sell it for”.

it seems to me the younger generatiion only wants 10's. they even shun 9's.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Kids are always going to get into the current stuff; we all did. I was abuzz every year with the latest offerings from Topps, and crazy to get that rookie (I recall 1976's Willie Randolph and Ron Guidry RCs with great fondness today as the young stalwarts of the first Yankees team of my childhood to win a pennant). Man, how I chased those cards. A percentage of those kids trading cards will study history and become intrigued with the past, like all of us did; no one is born with a desire to buy a Harry Hooper card. They always do, and the 'boring' cards from 100-150 years ago will come to life for them and that itch will start. First it is the Mt. Rushmore players: Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Robinson, etc. Then, it is the next tier down, and so on, until they are chasing regional Claude Osteen cards for their Dodgers franchise collections. It is the journey of a lifetime of collecting.

Well said.