$15,000 to spend on 1-5 cards...WWYD?

[jingram058]

The big takeaway from all this jolly, carefree banter is...if I had (someone gave me) $15,000 I wouldn't spend it on baseball cards, or anything hobby related. I would probably remodel my kitchen. If you're rolling in money, while the rest of us real people try to get by, then go ahead, buy that Ruth or Cobb.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

A Babe Ruth Exhibit, the earlier the better.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

A Babe Ruth Exhibit, the earlier the better.

This seems to be a recurring theme. I do like me a good-looking early Babe Exhibit.

[anchorednw]

Now that we've heard everyone's opinion on player/card/set, the real question is "at what price point", which has been bantered about earlier in the thread.

Personally, I (in my limited knowledge) see some value/upside in:

25-29 Exhibit Babe Ruth
1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1951 Bowman Willie Mays

Myself, I am eager to learn more about some early 20's items that some may feel haven't run up in price compared to others.

Is there such a thing as undervalued early 20th century items?

[G1911]

Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.

However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.

When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.

It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.

However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.

When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.

It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.

The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.

You absolutely can, and it is not hard. Most don't, because most people are putting money in when things look all sunny and happy because they follow the narrative of the moment. Many people then panic at the next downturn, and sell.

It takes about 30 seconds to determine if the market is generally high or generally low. We know in real time if things are generally speaking good or bad in the stock market. We know it's low right now. If you buy a diversity of blue chips and/or into properly managed index funds (which are not difficult to identify, less than 20 minutes of research) when it's low and hold, it is incredibly difficult to lose over the long run.

It does not take me to partake in insider trading to do this. It takes a little patience and common sense, no more. It barely takes any of one's time even.

[Smarti5051]

Giving investment advice is so difficult, because it is unique to your situation. If you are 50 years old with two kids in college with hefty 529s to pay for it, live in a house that is paid off, have $200K in your checking account and $4 million in the market, then $15-25K in sportscards as an "investment" can be fun and arguably sensible. If you are 30 with two kids under 10, have $40K in the bank and $50K in your 401K/IRA and are saving $500/mo after expenses, then a $15-25K investment in sportscards can be a different story.

If you have $4 million in the market, are you in your lifetime going to even notice the extra $25K deposit you make today vs opening that box, digging through the packing peanuts, removing the bubble wrap, separating the cardboard to reveal a nice 52 Topps Jackie or a 33 Goudey Ruth (especially if this card becomes the crown jewel of your collection)? I think there is a psychological dividend to holding a grail card when you already have enough in traditional investments. And when you see your portfolio swing $25-50K a day, it sure is nice to go back and look at that grail card and see it is still the same.

[BobC]

Here's a somewhat different, and definitely outside the box, take in response to your question. Do some research into sets/issues that PSA does not currently grade, or that they have only started grading very recently so there are only an extremely small number of PSA graded examples from that set/issue out there, so far.

No guarantee you can easily find such an eligible candidate set/issue, if at all. But if you did come across a potential prospect, maybe go after raw cards of the major stars/HOFers in that set/issue, in the nicest condition you can find/afford. Then hopefully you can have them graded by PSA in the future when they do start to grade them, or if they've already started grading them, get PSA to grade them right away while the overall PSA graded pop of such a set/issue is still extremely small. This strategy may be highly time and timing dependent as well, so obviously no guarantees of success.

Certainly not a necessarily easy or predictable thing to do. But then, when has any type of such a riskier investment strategy ever really been that easy or predictable?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

Now that we've heard everyone's opinion on player/card/set, the real question is "at what price point", which has been bantered about earlier in the thread.

Personally, I (in my limited knowledge) see some value/upside in:

25-29 Exhibit Babe Ruth
1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1951 Bowman Willie Mays

Myself, I am eager to learn more about some early 20's items that some may feel haven't run up in price compared to others.

Is there such a thing as undervalued early 20th century items?

Everyone thinks his favorite cards are undervalued. I would stay away from that whole subject, honestly. You're not going to get any consistent answers asking a few random people participating in a thread.

[Republicaninmass]

Another word of advice....when everyone is saying the same items are guaranteed to go up....they already have, and smart money is getting out.

For decades low-mid grade t206s and 33 goudeys littered auction houses. They were likely the most collect and printed cards of the prewar era. Couple that with people saving everything of the superstars of the day, newpapers, photos, etc and you have a big supply. Demand is always the other side of the coin, but the supply side is only curtailed when people want to hang onto their items.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by jingram058

If you're rolling in money, while the rest of us real people try to get by, then go ahead, buy that Ruth or Cobb.

This comment clearly has undertones of much more going on. Real people? Rolling in money?

I make no apologies for having some $ that I would like to spend on baseball cards and that my kitchen satisfies my wife, as that certainly doesn't make me less of a real person, lol

[notfast]

T206 Cobb bat off/red
48 Leaf Jackie
51 Bowman Mays

pick two, highest grade/eye appeal you can find.

[anchorednw]

Thank you for the wonderful feedback on this thread. What's it's helped me to do is actually consider a wider range of cards that I may have not considered. In addition, given me jump off point to study and learn more about some of these items (as my knowledge and experience in prewar and early vintage is still limited).

A year ago, if someone asked me that question, I would have probably said "easy, go grab an early Mantle or Mays", which isn't a terrible answer, but short sighted and limited in scope.

After much banter and discussion, I've begun to put pen to paper and make a list (albeit long) of players and cards/sets that I love and want. These include the obvious suspects.

I lean towards Babe and Cobb in early cards such as exhibit, t206, caramel, sporting news, etc. While I understand the draw of Goudey and early Topps/Bowman, I believe I would enjoy owning something a bit older and a bit more scarce/harder to find.

Really appreciate all the great insight, advice and banter.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

This comment clearly has undertones of much more going on. Real people? Rolling in money?

I make no apologies for having some $ that I would like to spend on baseball cards and that my kitchen satisfies my wife, as that certainly doesn't make me less of a real person, lol

I don't know anyone who has $15k to spend on baseball cards, other than the folks who post on this forum. I would have to sell cards I have to raise that kind of $$$. Sorry, but that is how it is. The regular work a day people are not in that league. I love this forum and the amazing cards posted, but it isn't a hobby for regular blue collar people anymore, only for the well-heeled card investors.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I don't know anyone who has $15k to spend on baseball cards, other than the folks who post on this forum. I would have to sell cards I have to raise that kind of $$$. Sorry, but that is how it is. The regular work a day people are not in that league. I love this forum and the amazing cards posted, but it isn't a hobby for regular blue collar people anymore, only for the well-heeled card investors.

I will agree that to drop $15k on a card is a lot of money, at least in absolute terms. Certainly with many hard working Americans taking 3-6 months to earn that kind of cash, it’s a lot. To save that much, for many it would take even longer. And considering what else you could acquire with that kind of cash (like a semi-decent used car), it’s also a lot.

But I suspect that many of us spending that kind of cash on cards are still very much working for a living. At least I am!

At the same time, it’s fair to admit that I’ve been greatly blessed with tremendous resources to have the option to lavishly spend that kind of money on a luxury such as this. While I have worked hard to get here, paid my dues for many years, and gained some very valuable skills that I now use in my business to make a living, and with an income now at the top of the charts and a tax rate over 50% to go with it (part of the joys of living on the left coast) my situation is obviously different than the vast majority of Americans who do not have available cash to lavish on such luxuries at the same scale.

Is that a bad thing? Is it a good thing? Not sure that I have answers to those questions. I’m also not going to get into a political scrum about it, because that’s the best way to make any activity a lot less enjoyable.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I don't know anyone who has $15k to spend on baseball cards, other than the folks who post on this forum. I would have to sell cards I have to raise that kind of $$$. Sorry, but that is how it is. The regular work a day people are not in that league. I love this forum and the amazing cards posted, but it isn't a hobby for regular blue collar people anymore, only for the well-heeled card investors.

Personally, I think there is very much of a hobby for the blue collar still. The blue collar can't buy the very best items, but I bought cards for entertainment even when I made $60,000 a year in the Bay Area, California (which is almost nothing with the cost of living here) when I was starting out. You can't buy the 1% cards, but you can build a fun and awesome collection of low grade less popular cards with the same or better aesthetic appeal as the investment pieces. If it isn't viewed as competition, but building a collection for personal enjoyment, I think the blue collar have a much better time than the white collar actually. The blue collar 'I just enjoy these cards I gather' seem to have a lot more fun and less stress than the $$$ collectors who are primarily interested in their profit from the hobby. As I buy for personal enjoyment and entertainment and budget my card buys accordingly as my 'beer money', I would consider myself in the blue collar class here as well. I'm not dropping what it takes to buy the cards that have 1,000 threads about them.

Discussion centers around money and the rich, that is absolutely true. The poorer collectors don't tend to be active in the forums and like nearly as much, for reasons we could speculate on but I don't think could prove. Probably would be an interesting topic to examine if everyone behaved for another thread.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I don't know anyone who has $15k to spend on baseball cards, other than the folks who post on this forum. I would have to sell cards I have to raise that kind of $$$. Sorry, but that is how it is. The regular work a day people are not in that league. I love this forum and the amazing cards posted, but it isn't a hobby for regular blue collar people anymore, only for the well-heeled card investors.

I'm going to disagree a bit here James, I'm a working class guy in a blue collar business in a HCOL area. I'll be the the first guy to admit I've been fortunate enough to collect cardboard pictures of little baseball men.

When I got back in I built a list of 300 cards I wanted to reflect my collection, never mind the price that's what I wanted my collection to look like. Within that frame is always economics, I'll never be the guy who can spend his way through, but I did sacrifice for my collection, sometimes when I shouldn't have but that's the nature of this fantastic hobby.

I'd love a Wolverine Cobb but that's above my pay grade right now, maybe someday, but I don't fret over it because I have other collecting goals and am happy with my current collection.

It's really never about the money, it's about the passion for collecting, there's guys here who can buy whatever they want, there's also guys here who sacrifice to spend $250 on a card. I'm happy for for both of them when they reach a collecting goal and post about it here.

For me it's always about the relationships formed with fellow members here, which if graded by any TPG would be a Gem Mint 10 or whatever they call it...

[cgjackson222]

An attempt to put some context to some of the prices changes in some of the cards mentioned on here that could be purchased with ~$15K

My apologies for any mistakes and this is not meant to say one card is better than the other. And it is not an apples to apples comparison as I am just working off data that is on PSA's website. I'd need a more recent sale of a PSA 5 T206 Red Cobb for instance. And I'd need an earlier sale of the Mays rookie to be an apples to apples comparison Mantle's rookie.

For the record, I think people should buy what interests them, and they should only do so with discretionary income.

Note that the annual return is between each sale. Only the total is calculated from the final sale to the first sale.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'm going to disagree a bit here James, I'm a working class guy in a blue collar business in a HCOL area. I'll be the the first guy to admit I've been fortunate enough to collect cardboard pictures of little baseball men.

When I got back in I built a list of 300 cards I wanted to reflect my collection, never mind the price that's what I wanted my collection to look like. Within that frame is always economics, I'll never be the guy who can spend his way through, but I did sacrifice for my collection, sometimes when I shouldn't have but that's the nature of this fantastic hobby.

I'd love a Wolverine Cobb but that's above my pay grade right now, maybe someday, but I don't fret over it because I have other collecting goals and am happy with my current collection.

It's really never about the money, it's about the passion for collecting, there's guys here who can buy whatever they want, there's also guys here who sacrifice to spend $250 on a card. I'm happy for for both of them when they reach a collecting goal and post about it here.

For me it's always about the relationships formed with fellow members here, which if graded by any TPG would be a Gem Mint 10 or whatever they call it...

I agree with what you say, Phil. It would nonsense to try to argue. And I would say I have seen a great many of your cards posted here. You have stated that you have sacrificed at times, selling in order to get a certain pick up. Thanks for making me see the light.