Who will be selected to the MLB HOF next Tuesday

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by packs

Interesting thing to say when discussing Walker, who has 7 gold gloves. As far as I know Coors Field doesn't make it easier to win gold gloves.

Why didn't everyone else hit 360 while Walker was?

1997: Walker hit 366. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 318. Difference of 48 points.
1998: Walker hit 363. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 331. Difference of 32 points.
1999: Walker hit 379. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 320. Difference of 59 points.

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

right he is a great hitter but lets not kid ourselves, .360 is a shiny number...if its .320..its a great number but not shiny and HOF likes shiny numbers and the .360 is because of coors.

If Walker was great in the postseason (Andy Pettite) that would be something to consider but still hasnt worked for Petite.

however hitting .320 for 12 years is better than 4 shiny .360's or whatever, go and get 3000 hits (shiny number) and end the discussion..

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right he is a great hitter but lets not kid ourselves, .360 is a shiny number...if its .320..its a great number but not shiny and HOF likes shiny numbers and the .360 is because of coors.

If Walker was great in the postseason (Andy Pettite) that would be something to consider but still hasnt worked for Petite.

however hitting .320 for 12 years is better than 4 shiny .360's or whatever, go and get 3000 hits (shiny number) and end the discussion..

Jake hits are meaningless, Jeter has more than everyone that has ever played but 5 people. There are still people that would not vote for him.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Jake hits are meaningless, Jeter has more than everyone that has ever played but 5 people. There are still people that would not vote for him.

apparently there was one person that didnt vote for him

[cardsagain74]

And to be fair, there are other parks that should get almost as bad of a rep as Coors (when it comes to inflated hitting numbers). Especially Fenway. People know that places like it and Yankee Stadium are hitter friendly, but they don't take it into account as much as they should.

If you switched Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn's parks, one wouldn't sniff the hall of fame and the other would've had lifetime numbers like Ty Cobb

[packs]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.