Ohtani ROY, really?????

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

Ohtani's best month was August when Trout was on the DL most of the month. They were in the line up together for only the last 7 games of the month. Justin Upton, a .257 hitter with an OPS+ 122 wasn't providing protection for him either as Ohtani hit behind him the whole month of August. Hit hit ahead of Trout once all season. When he started hitting ahead of Upton some in September, his stats were slightly worse.



These are the OPS+ of the other hitters in the Angels every day line up, 71, 92, 95, 109, 62, 80. Their main reserves were all below 100. The Angels line up was pretty much garbage outside of Trout and Upton. Ohtani wasn't getting better pitches because of where he hit. Gregorious had an OPS+ of 120. 5 of the other 8 Yankees regulars had an OPS+ of 118 or above and 3 reserves were above 100. Andujar had much more protection in the Yankees line up no matter where he he than Ohtani did, even the few game that Upton hit behind him. Nice theory, but it doesn't hold water.

A better theory is that Ohtani batted in 34 of the Angels first 85 games and 70 of their last 77 games. So when he became an every day player, he got in a rhythm and produced better numbers. The bottom line is that he was a much better hitter over the whole season, even though he was a part time hitter for more than half of the season.

As far as 2016 AL ROY, Fulmer 5.2 WAR Sanchez 3.0 WAR. You may not like it, but we are in the era of advanced stats and voters are using them when voting for awards.

So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).

Everyone is entitled to their own theory about why Ohtani started hitting(again) in August.... Through June he was batting .289, then slumped in July before getting back on track in Aug-Sept. Why does any rookie start off hitting well then begin to slump? ....pitchers didn't start off with sufficient scouting for Ohtani (in spring training he didn't hit well). Once there is sufficient scouting, the pitchers/fielders make their adjustments. From there is up to the batter to adjust again and/or the manager to get make line-up adjustments. If the theory is he got hot in August because of regular playing time, that is not exactly true as he played sporadically starting at DH in only 14 games and appeared as PH in 10.


I'll stick with he saw better pitches later in the season than what he saw in July (post pitcher adjustments) because of moving up in the line-up and then having a 30 HR guy batting behind him later .


Andujar had Didi for less than a month last season batting behind him. For a few weeks he had Torres behind him before Torres got hot and subsequently moved up in the order. Most of the season he had players like Tyler Austin, Torreyes, Romine, Bird, Etc batting behind him. Not exactly the league's strongest batters.

Either way, IMO there is a bias for southern CA teams with voting for these awards. If Ohtani stays in the ML as a batter, I believe he will have a great career.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The intangibles were massively in Ohtani's favor, even if you question the stats, and those weren't so clearly against him that you can really take issue with the vote IMO.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

So using WAR as a comparison for the 2016 results is okay but not in the 2018 comparison because it doesn't help with the explanation? Okay. Since Ohtani won as a DH (not a pitcher), the voters in 2018 didn't exactly use the advanced stats (his offensive WAR).

I am not sure how you came up with this. The voters did use WAR in 2018. Ohtani 3.9 WAR Andujar 2.2 WAR. Lol at Yankees fans complaining about bias.

[packs]

Andujar's WAR is knocked for his defense, which Ohtani didn't play either. His oWAR was almost 2 points higher than Ohtani's.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

I am not sure how you came up with this. The voters did use WAR in 2018. Ohtani 3.9 WAR Andujar 2.2 WAR. Lol at Yankees fans complaining about bias.

Recapping what has already been discussed: As a DH Ohtani has an OFFENSIVE WAR is 2.7. Andujar has an OFFENSIVE WAR of 4.6.

Unless I am mistaken, a 4.6 OFFENSIVE WAR is greater than a 2.7 Offensive WAR.

If you insist upon using WAR to compare these two players, use the one measurement that is comparable for both players, offensive WAR.

They are both good players...one had a great season with minimal hype, the other had great hype and a pretty decent season. If hype is enough to win a subjective award, then great.

Again, the bias is obvious....a Yankee in 2016 had a similar partial season to Ohtani in 2018 yet loses the award to an 11-7 pitcher.

In another day or two nobody will even care.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

How do you explain just ignoring the pitching? You act like it doesn't matter.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

How do you explain just ignoring the pitching? You act like it doesn't matter.

First, on MLB's website he is listed as a "DH", not a "DH/P" on the list on AL ROY winners.

Second, in just the 10 games he started, he was a pedestrian 4-2. He barely exceeded the 50 inning limit to no longer qualify for rookie status as a pitcher by throwing 51.2 innings . If he was a closer who threw around 50 innings but had 30+ saves and a low ERA, then great consider the pitching for this award, but he was a starter.

Is it really fair to judge a starting pitcher on a mere 10 starts?

Do I think the hype of him attempting to be a two-way player helped him with the votes for this award? ....... Absolutely


If he sticks with hitting, instead of pitching, he will be a great hitter.....if he has a full season with the bat in his hands next year, there is no doubt in my mind he will be a better hitter than any of the other sophomores.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

Recapping what has already been discussed: As a DH Ohtani has an OFFENSIVE WAR is 2.7. Andujar has an OFFENSIVE WAR of 4.6.

Unless I am mistaken, a 4.6 OFFENSIVE WAR is greater than a 2.7 Offensive WAR.

If you insist upon using WAR to compare these two players, use the one measurement that is comparable for both players, offensive WAR.

They are both good players...one had a great season with minimal hype, the other had great hype and a pretty decent season. If hype is enough to win a subjective award, then great.

Again, the bias is obvious....a Yankee in 2016 had a similar partial season to Ohtani in 2018 yet loses the award to an 11-7 pitcher.

In another day or two nobody will even care.

Offensive WAR is irrelevant, oWAR is a counting stat. Ohtani's counting stats are all going to be lower because he had fewer plate appearances. Ohtani had fewer plate appearances because he is just as talented as a pitcher and brought tremendous value at a pitcher. Despite his fewer PA, he was a better hitter than Andujar with an OPS+ of 152 to Andujar's 126.

Andujar had a decent season, Ohtani had a historic season. Ohtani had an ERA+ 126 and K/9 11. Of pitchers with 10 starts, that has been done 39 times in baseball history and only the 4th time a rookie has done that. His OPS+ of 152 is 21st all time for rookies with at least 350 PA. Of the 13 players that did it in the ROY award era, 9 won ROY and the other 4 2nd, including Rico Carty who finished 2nd to Dick Allen with OPS+ of 162 to 161.

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

We can debate, compare apples to oranges and disagree all day....nothing is going to change the fact that Andujar had a strong season but did not win this award (which no one will remember in a week anyway) due to the hype surrounding another player who had almost as good of a season.

In addition, is Ohtani a real rookie anyway? FIVE years in the NPB?

He maybe a MLB rookie by qualifications, but clearly no rookie at the top level.

With five years already under his belt, Ohtani should have had a much better season than Andujar did with no top level experience.


As far as comparing Sanchez and Ohtani and their partial seasons, they are quite similar, especially percentage wise. You can see how they compared to your previous example of McCovey winning in his shortened season.

..............g...ab...r..h..2b.HR.RBI.BA..OBP..SL G...OPS
Sanchez 53 229 34 60 12 20 42 .299 .376 .657 1.032
Ohtani. 104 326 59 93 21 22 61 .285 .361 .564 .925

McCovey 52 192 32 68 9 13 38 .354 .429 .656 1.085


If you feel Andujar and Sanchez's rookie performances are inferior when compared to Ohtani and Fulmer's MLB "rookie" results respectively , you must be........

[rats60]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

We can debate, compare apples to oranges and disagree all day....nothing is going to change the fact that Andujar had a strong season but did not win this award (which no one will remember in a week anyway) due to the hype surrounding another player who had almost as good of a season.

In addition, is Ohtani a real rookie anyway? FIVE years in the NPB?

He maybe a MLB rookie by qualifications, but clearly no rookie at the top level.

With five years already under his belt, Ohtani should have had a much better season than Andujar did with no top level experience.


As far as comparing Sanchez and Ohtani and their partial seasons, they are quite similar, especially percentage wise. You can see how they compared to your previous example of McCovey winning in his shortened season.

..............g...ab...r..h..2b.HR.RBI.BA..OBP..SL G...OPS
Sanchez 53 229 34 60 12 20 42 .299 .376 .657 1.032
Ohtani. 104 326 59 93 21 22 61 .285 .361 .564 .925

McCovey 52 192 32 68 9 13 38 .354 .429 .656 1.085


If you feel Andujar and Sanchez's rookie performances are inferior when compared to Ohtani and Fulmer's MLB "rookie" results respectively , you must be........

Andujar had a strong season, but Ohtani had a historic one. He was a far better hitter with OPS+ 152 to 126 for Andujar as well as producing at a high level on the mound. There is no hype involved.

Ohtani played 5 years of minor league ball, playing 403 games with 1170 PA. Andujar played 596 minor league games with 2474 PA. Andujar has more professional experience, but they both absolutely are rookies.

If Ohtani was a rookie in 2016, he wouldn't have won the award like Sanchez didn't. ROY is a yearly award. Ohtani had weaker competition than Sanchez had, thus he is the 2018 AL ROY.

Here is a nice article from an actual voter. He lays out his reasoning and none of it involves "hype," but many of the stats that I laid out including a OPS+ 26 points higher, a OBP 33 points higher and a SLG 37 points higher. That is on top of his pitching. He also points out Andujar's historically bad fielding.

https://sports.yahoo.com/yankees-fan...065239328.html

I consult with executives, scouts, field staff, players – you know, people actually involved in the game – before I vote on these awards. Their vote was split. Slightly more favored Ohtani.

So, it seems that not only 25 of 30 writers favor Ohtani, but also those who are part of the game. The only group that favors Andujar are Yankee fans.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

Andujar had a strong season, but Ohtani had a historic one. He was a far better hitter with OPS+ 152 to 126 for Andujar as well as producing at a high level on the mound. There is no hype involved.

Ohtani played 5 years of minor league ball, playing 403 games with 1170 PA. Andujar played 596 minor league games with 2474 PA. Andujar has more professional experience, but they both absolutely are rookies.

If Ohtani was a rookie in 2016, he wouldn't have won the award like Sanchez didn't. ROY is a yearly award. Ohtani had weaker competition than Sanchez had, thus he is the 2018 AL ROY.

Here is a nice article from an actual voter. He lays out his reasoning and none of it involves "hype," but many of the stats that I laid out including a OPS+ 26 points higher, a OBP 33 points higher and a SLG 37 points higher. That is on top of his pitching. He also points out Andujar's historically bad fielding.

https://sports.yahoo.com/yankees-fan...065239328.html

I consult with executives, scouts, field staff, players – you know, people actually involved in the game – before I vote on these awards. Their vote was split. Slightly more favored Ohtani.

So, it seems that not only 25 of 30 writers favor Ohtani, but also those who are part of the game. The only group that favors Andujar are Yankee fans.

Please explain your reasoning for Ohtani having a better season at the plate. He had 250 less at bats than Andujar. Quoting OPS+, on base, or slugging seems crazy when there is that much of a disparity between at bats.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by rats60

Andujar had a strong season, but Ohtani had a historic one. He was a far better hitter with OPS+ 152 to 126 for Andujar as well as producing at a high level on the mound. There is no hype involved.

Ohtani played 5 years of minor league ball, playing 403 games with 1170 PA. Andujar played 596 minor league games with 2474 PA. Andujar has more professional experience, but they both absolutely are rookies.

If Ohtani was a rookie in 2016, he wouldn't have won the award like Sanchez didn't. ROY is a yearly award. Ohtani had weaker competition than Sanchez had, thus he is the 2018 AL ROY.

Here is a nice article from an actual voter. He lays out his reasoning and none of it involves "hype," but many of the stats that I laid out including a OPS+ 26 points higher, a OBP 33 points higher and a SLG 37 points higher. That is on top of his pitching. He also points out Andujar's historically bad fielding.

https://sports.yahoo.com/yankees-fan...065239328.html

I consult with executives, scouts, field staff, players – you know, people actually involved in the game – before I vote on these awards. Their vote was split. Slightly more favored Ohtani.

So, it seems that not only 25 of 30 writers favor Ohtani, but also those who are part of the game. The only group that favors Andujar are Yankee fans.

You may want to actually read the article you linked, as it is contradicting to your position.

First, there is absolutely no mention of WAR being the reason for this voter voting the way he did. Second, the article flat out says that Ohtani did not lead in any (non-pct) offensive categories (as Andujar did), as (agreeably) leading in statistical categories is not a requirement to win the ROY. In so many words, the article does not deny Andujar had a better season offensively. So, read back between the lines and outside of Ohtani leading slightly in a few pct based offensive categories, he received this vote because "what he did was historic".... this is statement absolutely confirms Ohtani received this vote because of the HYPE surrounding him. In addition, Ohtani's performance is not really very historic when just two years ago the runnerup for ROY, in a less crowed field, was better percentage wise in all PCT base categories than Ohtani.

Straight from a voters mouth, Ohtani won this vote not on the merits of having the best season (he had a strong season for sure), but on the fact that what he did was "historic"...

Since this voter based his vote on Ohtani's percentages being stronger(and of course his "historic" performance), instead of using WAR or other traditional stats (HR, RBI 2bs, avg), I wonder who he voted for in 2016. The guy who had the best percentages OR another player? If he voted for anyone other than Sanchez, there is clear bias.


Oh, where exactly did Ohtani play his 5 years of "minor league ball"?

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

Offensive WAR is irrelevant, oWAR is a counting stat. Ohtani's counting stats are all going to be lower because he had fewer plate appearances. Ohtani had fewer plate appearances because he is just as talented as a pitcher and brought tremendous value at a pitcher. Despite his fewer PA, he was a better hitter than Andujar with an OPS+ of 152 to Andujar's 126.

Andujar had a decent season, Ohtani had a historic season. Ohtani had an ERA+ 126 and K/9 11. Of pitchers with 10 starts, that has been done 39 times in baseball history and only the 4th time a rookie has done that. His OPS+ of 152 is 21st all time for rookies with at least 350 PA. Of the 13 players that did it in the ROY award era, 9 won ROY and the other 4 2nd, including Rico Carty who finished 2nd to Dick Allen with OPS+ of 162 to 161.

There is no bias other than that of Yankee fans who think that Sanchez and Andujar deserved ROY. Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Sanchez. Ohtani played a full season, just neither as a full time pitcher or full time hitter, but as a combination of both and led AL rookies in WAR. Sanchez was a distant 2nd to Michael Fulmer in WAR. In both cases the player who had the higher WAR won ROY as they deserved. Claiming inferior players should have won just shows bias.

I don't agree with your assessment of Ohtani being a better hitter. Andujar had over 250 more official at bats and still finished with a significantly higher batting average. There is no way to project Ohtani slugging what he did over another 250 at bats, nor can you project batting average either. If Ohtani hit 30 homers and batted 260 I'd rather have the 297 hitter who got me 27 homers. Andujar had more doubles than Ohtani had homers and doubles combined. Then factor his home run power. He had the better season at the plate hands down.