Black Swamp Find E98 set break

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Not suggesting that they're not being truthful or that they're being sneaky. I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family as well, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired this year. This would also be consistent with trying to sell some they had initially decided to keep. There were an awful lot of family members with vested interests in the collection. It wouldn't be at all surprising to keep a set or two for the family in memorium and then five years later -- once Heritage ran dry -- decide it's time to move on for any good reason or other.

The "different holders" argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the way the serial numbers -- that appear to have been set in a specific order in 2012 -- line up with the gaps I described above.

I didn't know their deal was a 5 yrs deal. Maybe some were held back, like I said, but I would be surprised. It wouldn't be the first time I have ever been surprised. As for the serial numbers I was talking in other graders (SGC) holders....

[T206Collector]

Stated another way -- when you line up all of the Heritage Black Swamp sales in PSA serial number order, and then try to align the PSA population report with those sales, you are left with some interesting gaps that call into question the accuracy of the pop reports, as well as the location of the cards with the missing serial numbers, that I don't think can be explained by crossing over. When Memory Lane has an auction this past month where so many of the cards --maybe all of them?--were previously not in those holders in a Heritage auction, and the serial numbers fill the gaps in the Heritage serial number ordering, the held back explanation does make sense in that context.

[T206Collector]

Case in point - someone buys the SGC 30 Mack, which is way off center and has it crossed over to PSA, knowing it will get an OC or MC qualifier, to show that it is otherwise crease and defect free.

The original run of Heritage Macks graded by PSA are all shown with serial numbers in the 19871820s, 30s, and 40s.

The new PSA holder carries the following serial number — 25420189 —totally out of line with the others in the family.

So clearly PSA is not holding spaces for Black Swamp cards in its serial numbers (if they were Mack would’ve slotted back into its original PSA case - assuming there was one before the SGC version wound up on Heritage). If they’re not being held out of circulation for some reason, like the Memory Lane Black Swampers, then maybe they were initially graded by PSA and then removed from circulation (and the pop report) and graded by SGC before being sold. If you add the Memory Lane Green Davis as well as the four SGC Green Davises on the Heritage website, you are then left with just one space in the series - one heretofore undisclosed E98 Davis Green Swamper.

I find the whole distribution of these sharp little buggers to be really interesting. And I do wonder whether there are more out there to be sold in future auctions.

[kailes2872]

Pete,
I read about the BSF when it came out but I was not yet on this site. I did an archive search and read the main thread. However, I was confused about this statement

-there will always be those skeptical of this find's legitimacy

I don't mean to be dense, but could you elaborate?

Thanks!

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Pete,
I read about the BSF when it came out but I was not yet on this site. I did an archive search and read the main thread. However, I was confused about this statement




I don't mean to be dense, but could you elaborate?

Thanks!

Some people out there do not believe these cards are original...that they may have been reproduced somehow.

[glynparson]

Minimum size cards or altered can screw up the consecutive numbering.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Minimum size cards or altered can screw up the consecutive numbering.

Thank you! That is helpful information.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

I didn't know their deal was a 5 yrs deal. Maybe some were held back, like I said, but I would be surprised. It wouldn't be the first time I have ever been surprised. As for the serial numbers I was talking in other graders (SGC) holders....

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

[ullmandds]

the bsf is the gift that keeps on giving.

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

Interesting. Any idea what sort of additional quantities there are?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

I am surprised (a little.) It won't be the last time. Hmmm...so I wonder if the ones not sold by Heritage are/were already in the pop reports? I assume so but that is a big assumption.

[swarmee]

Not a big assumption; their Cert #s were already included in the same range, so they were all graded at the same time. If you had the time and inclination, you could track them all in a spreadsheet. Or use PSA's new Auction Price Realized tool to see which have sold and which haven't.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Not a big assumption; their Cert #s were already included in the same range, so they were all graded at the same time. If you had the time and inclination, you could track them all in a spreadsheet. Or use PSA's new Auction Price Realized tool to see which have sold and which haven't.

I took a crack at this a few months ago, and put some of my findings earlier in this thread. I had inquired of the family back then as well, but only just today got my answer.

While I agree that PSA seems to have graded them all in the beginning, and that not all of those made it into a Heritage Auction, I am still concerned that some of the SGC graded BSF cards may not have come from the original PSA population, and instead were submitted after the fact by a purchaser through the estate. Perhaps SGC can confirm whether they graded any BSF cards that had not been previously graded by PSA.

And it does seem to be that there was only one purchaser outside of the Heritage process. I will try to find out more about the number of cards sold outside of the process, but it may take me awhile to get an answer.

[Yoda]

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

It's moving up steadily in the current Heritage, and is at $3,600.

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

There was only one Mathewson in the BSF - a PSA 6 OC.