Is there any possible way to know how many complete 1914 CJ Sets exist?

[sniffy5]

So few collectors try for this set for various reasons. The big cards are really cost-prohibitive, but nonetheless available. And in lesser grades as well for somewhat reasonable prices. All that being said, I just wonder how many sets folks might theorize could be out there. And, if the 1914 set is one of the toughest sets to complete (excluding sets that intentionally short print cards, and sets with impossible error cards!!)

[Bicem]

relatively easy to complete if you have the $$$.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by Bicem

relatively easy to complete if you have the $$$.

I think many/most sets are "easy" to complete if you have the $$$. But relative to other sets, I'd guess this one is slightly more difficult. The 1914 Cracker Jacks are more rare and condition sensitive than their 1915 counterparts. 144 cards isn't ridiculous but its larger than most other Candy sets of the time. There are a lot of big name HOFers like Cobb, Wagner, W Johnson, and Matty (not to mention Jax) that any of those 5 cards are sometimes the centerpiece of a collection, so it minimizes the number of sets out there.

SGC only has one set completed on their registry, and PSA has 3. I'd guess somewhere around 20 sets are complete? Just a total guess, feel free to tear that apart!

Rob

[rainier2004]

I'd take the under on 20 sets. 3 were completely dismantled in the 4 years or so and another 3 were completed in 2012...I'm pretty sure Tom is aware of this. What's your guess Mr thread starter?

[btkpath]

I agree with Steve. I would probably put the number of complete sets out there as 10-12. I would be very surprised if there were as many as 20. As was mentioned, there are 3 complete sets on PSA and 1 on SGC. I know of at least three other complete sets that are combinations of the two registries. Given the rarity of many of the cards in the set, I have a hard time believing that there are more than 5 other raw or combination sets that are flying below the radar.

[sniffy5]

Believe me, you guys would be far more authoritative on this topic than me. I don't even know the Sgc pop reports for the cards. But I guess the only way to truly figure it out would be to figure out the lowest pop card overall, which is probably Cady - again I don't know the Sgc pop - and then theorize from there how many Cady's are sitting along side the other 143 cards. Is the total pop of Cady less than 20? There are 9 psa's...

[rainier2004]

Too bad SGCs website sucks and is a complete mess every time you go there for a pop report. PSA takes less than 30 seconds to get all the 1914s displayed and after 10 minutes trying to look up the SGC Cady I gave up...PSA makes SGC look very bad when comparing websites.

Back on topic, that is one way to do it Tom but I always thought the community was quite small though. I'm with Barry at 10-12 sets and I do not think most people understand the difficulty of finishing this set even if you have large wads of cash. When cards only come up f/s once in 5-6 years it makes it tough. There are those that "toy" with the set and I just think most of these collectors do not fully understand the difficulty involved.

Barry, you set took 5 years to complete?

[albrshbr]

Took me less than a minute to look up. SGC has 7 Cady's graded

[sniffy5]

Thanks! Ok, so there are 16 Cady's graded. Yes, there are at least a few raw ones out there also. However, I would argue that any raw Cady's are probably not a part of a complete 1914 set. So it's somewhat obvious that it's possible that 16 sets exist as a maximum. Anyone out there with a Cady??

But the more interesting question I have is about other sets and their level of difficulty in comparison to the '14's: if there are 16 Cady's, with the Pratt, Caldwell, Keating and a few others being almost as scarce, maybe 20 of those, are there any other mainstream, non-regional sets with cards as scarce as those mentioned? Again, excluding purposely short-printed cards and error cards like in t206. I am not well-versed in all of the early sets..

[btkpath]

Steve, thats right, it took me about 5 years to finish the set. It is not that five years is a tremendous amount of time, but I lived and breathed 1914 CJ's for at least 4 of those years and don't think I purchased a single "non-red" card in that time. Not to sound like a DB, but money was not the issue in completing the set…….availability was. This may have changed slightly in the past year or two with several sets being disassembled and hitting the market, but it is still a tremendously difficult set to COLLECT.

I capitalized "collect" to bring up the point that, of the four complete sets listed on the SGC and PSA sites, two of them were purchased as complete sets or essentially complete sets, and one was (as legend holds) obtained directly from the CJ factory There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, but it is very different than collecting a set one/several card(s) at a time.

The other point I would bring up is, whereas the population reports are the best that we have, they clearly overestimate the populations of graded cards (by how much, I don't know) because there are many cards that get broken out of their holders and get resubmitted to another company, either for the sake of registry completeness, perceived under grading or the perception that a different holder will instill additional value to the card. Again, I don't say this disparagingly, but it is a fact (I know I have been complicit…..). I think this is especially true of the rarer cards and perhaps the key expensive cards in the set.

I maintain that I can't imagine there being more than 10-12 complete sets.

Sorry Tom……I know this missive doesn't address the main question that you posed regarding the rarity of other sets, but even back in high school I always had trouble actually answering the question that was posed…....

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by btkpath

I capitalized "collect" to bring up the point that, of the four complete sets listed on the SGC and PSA sites, two of them were purchased as complete sets or essentially complete sets, and one was (as legend holds) obtained directly from the CJ factory There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, but it is very different than collecting a set one/several card(s) at a time.

How did someone obtain that set?

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards

How did someone obtain that set?

Its all about who you know and cash talks.

I agree that cards are crossed over, busted out and the reports are a touch inflated...I have also contributed to this. You definitely lived and breathed CJs Barry for all that time. I also agree about collecting the cards one at a time, finding them in the far reaches takes some work opposed to buying someone elses set.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

I also agree about collecting the cards one at a time, finding them in the far reaches takes some work opposed to buying someone elses set.

The hunt is the fun part. I have met a lot of fellow collectors along the way and I look forward to getting to know more of you.

Alex

[vintagecpa]

Just my opinion, but I always felt more unknown raw cards exist than most people estimate. We can only imagine how many old-time collectors have no reason to spend the money grading their collection. When these collections are passed down in the family, not everyone sends them to an auction house. Many just get passed from one safe to another, especially within a wealthier family. If I had to guess an over/under, I would be between 40-50.

[sniffy5]

Yep. I agree with the money situation. It helps tremendously. But the time comes where a person will be SOL if he or she is looking for a certain card, especially in a certain grade. I can track down the highest graded Keating, call it a Psa 7, let's say. And I can wave $8000 at the owner. The man is a millionaire many times over. One of the top 2 Psa sets is owned by the guy who owns the Pittsburgh Steelers, and lord knows what else. He laughs at my $8000 (which I don't have that kind of discretionary income anyway). Besides, no one wants to break up a set, not even us little guys.

As for the crossovers without retiring labels, which I'm sure has been discussed countless times on the forum, it is prevalent to the third power with the 1914's. The population numbers are inflated. I can vouch for that. Obvious point, it's true...but when a card till only has a Psa pop of 12, and it has been inflated, that is one scarce card.

[glchen]

I think that there are a lot of really tough prewar sets out there, but since they are not widely collected like the 1914 CJ's, it's difficult to tell how rare they really are. For example, I think the W519 Numbered Type 2 and W590 Master set are really difficult to complete. However, if each card in these sets went for $1000+ like some of the difficult cards from the CJ's, perhaps a lot more of them would appear. Because of lot of these cards from these sets sell for less than $50, there is not great demand for dealers and collectors to scour their inventory to see if they have these cards and put them for sale on ebay or at an auction house. Other tough sets include E121-80 (and not including the back variations), E121-120, E122, and E220. I'm sure that there are plenty of other difficult sets. Still, I think the 1914 CJ's is one of the most difficult with a large number of collectors actively spending $$$$ to try to finish.

[sniffy5]

I personally doubt 40 or more sets are out there.

[CW]

Originally Posted by btkpath

...and one was (as legend holds) obtained directly from the CJ factory

Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards

How did someone obtain that set?

I was curious about the answer to this question, and I remember SGC at one time had a webpage dedicated to this set.

Back in 2004, SGC released a website promoting the sale of a very high grade 1914 complete set. The set sold, supposedly before it was graded, for $800,000 and was advertised to be sold through Mastro. The set was graded and received many high grades, including an amazing SGC 98 Joe Jackson.

I did some searches for the SGC site, which is now no longer in existence, but did come across some matches on the wayback machine. The Net54 archive also had a thread on the set, which (oddly enough ) went off on a couple tangents and provided its share of drama.

Old Net54 thread brought about by the announcement of the sale

Going back in time -- the opening intro page to the site

The press release about the sale

And the discussion of the find, which mentions the factory connection, but not how the set was obtained...

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Very cool. I didn't see any photos of the cards in the links above. Does anybody have a copy of the photos?

[CW]

These were grabbed from the flash intro...

[E93]

If I remember right, the factory set walked into a show and Mastro brokered it.
JimB

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Thanks for sharing those pictures. Those cards almost look too good.

[sniffy5]

Yeah, those cards do almost look too good. As a 1914 collector, they almost look wrong. (Not so wrong.....I wish I had them!!). Buy it's almost surreal to see them so clean. But I think part of the "wrong" is that the cards cheated!! They are, presumably, the only 1914's that did not face the many obstacles all the other 1914's faced. I think therein lies the somewhat odd feeling any 1914 collector experiences when gazing at those cards. It's like they should not exist. They represent an unfair comparison to all other 1914's.

In a way any 1914 collector should be happy more of those pristine cards didn't turn up. I guess it could be conceivable that 50 of each card could have been discovered originating from someone from the company. Imagine 50 pristine Jackson's and Matty's, etc... Sounds awesome on the surface, but again, it would ruin things in a way also. All mystique would be gone. Like if 50 perfect Honus's and Plank's showed up. Just would feel kinda wrong...

[btkpath]

Well put Tom!

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by sniffy5

As a 1914 collector, they almost look wrong.

Agreed - part of being a 1914 CJ is blemishes. Its not just a trait, its a right-of-passage or something. A wrinkle, a tear, a stain, a clipped corner, a pinhole. Its the card's way of saying "I survived that box of caramel popcorn"! It wasn't tucked neatly away in its own compartment of a cigarette pack, it was in there with the candy, guaranteed!

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Agreed - part of being a 1914 CJ is blemishes. Its not just a trait, its a right-of-passage or something. A wrinkle, a tear, a stain, a clipped corner, a pinhole. Its the card's way of saying "I survived that box of caramel popcorn"! It wasn't tucked neatly away in its own compartment of a cigarette pack, it was in there with the candy, guaranteed!

I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. I think mint tobacco cards looks weird.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by sniffy5

Yeah, those cards do almost look too good. As a 1914 collector, they almost look wrong. (Not so wrong.....I wish I had them!!). Buy it's almost surreal to see them so clean. But I think part of the "wrong" is that the cards cheated!! They are, presumably, the only 1914's that did not face the many obstacles all the other 1914's faced. I think therein lies the somewhat odd feeling any 1914 collector experiences when gazing at those cards. It's like they should not exist. They represent an unfair comparison to all other 1914's.

In a way any 1914 collector should be happy more of those pristine cards didn't turn up. I guess it could be conceivable that 50 of each card could have been discovered originating from someone from the company. Imagine 50 pristine Jackson's and Matty's, etc... Sounds awesome on the surface, but again, it would ruin things in a way also. All mystique would be gone. Like if 50 perfect Honus's and Plank's showed up. Just would feel kinda wrong...

Can you say Black Swamp Find!!!!

[sniffy5]

Yeah, I don't know too too much about the Black Swamp Find, but that is an excellent point, as it steers the conversation from the hypothetical to a reality-based event. Would E98 collectors say that the Find sent shockwaves, negative or positive, into their worlds of collecting those cards? I have no way at all to gauge that at all.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

By the way there's no way there's more than 10 completed 1914 CJ sets in existence today...

[uniship]

Any new thoughts these days on how many complete 1914 cj sets exist?

[1952boyntoncollector]

To me I dont really think the number to guess on is not complete sets...its how many have the big 3-6 cards or the main main key cards of any set. Whoever has those really has the set. When 6 or so cards are worth more than the rest of the cards combined or real close than i really count the people with those cards. The ones with the whole sets count of course too ,but the ones with those key key cards count the same in my book

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

To me I dont really think the number to guess on is not complete sets...its how many have the big 3-6 cards or the main main key cards of any set. Whoever has those really has the set. When 6 or so cards are worth more than the rest of the cards combined or real close than i really count the people with those cards. The ones with the whole sets count of course too ,but the ones with those key key cards count the same in my book

Hmmm...the value part of this may be true but 1914 CJs have tons of cards that are hard to find in any condition. Plus its a 144-card set and is a marathon, need all 144 for me to count it in my book.

I know of 4, 3more completed since this set died and one recently sold off privately. I'm guessing the number is still around 10-15 sets on the high end, its a tough set.

[uniship]

I've always thought the set isn't really complete without the variation "no number" bresnahan (#17) card.

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by uniship

I've always thought the set isn't really complete without the variation "no number" breshnahan (#17) card.

The master 1914 set...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

Hmmm...the value part of this may be true but 1914 CJs have tons of cards that are hard to find in any condition. Plus its a 144-card set and is a marathon, need all 144 for me to count it in my book.

I know of 4, 3more completed since this set died and one recently sold off privately. I'm guessing the number is still around 10-15 sets on the high end, its a tough set.

Well i guess i would count the guy with the 6 most expensive cards closer to finishing the set then the guy with the other 138

..

[Bpm0014]

...and one was (as legend holds) obtained directly from the CJ factory

Thomas T.

Part owner of the Steelers.

Has one of the most amazing collections of cards and memorabilia in existence (I hear).

[darwinbulldog]

The answer is no.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by sniffy5

However, I would argue that any raw Cady's are probably not a part of a complete 1914 set.

Why?

[Gradedcardman]

Originally Posted by sniffy5

So few collectors try for this set for various reasons. The big cards are really cost-prohibitive, but nonetheless available. And in lesser grades as well for somewhat reasonable prices. All that being said, I just wonder how many sets folks might theorize could be out there. And, if the 1914 set is one of the toughest sets to complete (excluding sets that intentionally short print cards, and sets with impossible error cards!!)

No...just a SWAG

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by sniffy5

... So it's somewhat obvious that it's possible that 16 sets exist as a maximum...

Somewhat obvious?

I think that it's "somewhat obvious" that at least 112 sets exist as a minimum.

Doug

[SMPEP]

Well, the guidebook says there are 121 1923 W572s, and no one I have ever heard of has ever assembled more than 114. Of the 7 not in that collection, 2 have no known graded examples (and therefore might not even exist), 1 has one graded example, 3 have 2 known examples (graded and ungraded added together) and 1 has 3 known examples.

The last card (one of the ones with no known graded examples) was added to the set in 2006. The cards were sold in strips of 10 cards. If the 121 is accurate ... it seems plausible there could be as many as 9 other cards out there that are uncatalogued.

So, I think it's safe to say, there could be as few as 1 set that is even possible to be assembled, and it may even be impossible to assemble a full original 1923 set because those 9 cards could have been tossed over the years.

But as others noted earlier, outside of Cobb and Ruth (over 35 of both are known) and few others, most of these cards don't command very much money ... but if they did, perhaps some would surface.

Cheers,
Patrick

Ps - If you have a w572 of Barbare, Duncan, Heilmann, Parkinson, Rapp, Rigney or Wambsganss please PM me. Thank you.