Has (most) everything good been graded

[Touch'EmAll]

I just chose 5 completely random semi high-end cards and looked up the PSA approx. pops in grade 5 and higher:

1915 Cracker Jack Mathewson = 60
1916 M101-4 Sporting News Cobb = 20
T206 Piedmont W. Johnson hands chest = 25
1933 Goudey #53 Ruth = 150
1949 Bowman Satchell Paige = 310

Now what are your guesses as to legit PSA 5 and higher non-graded? If you multiply each by 5 you would get:

1915 CJ Matty = 300
1916 SportNews Cobb = 100
T206 Piedmont W.Johnson = 125
1933 Goudey Ruth = 750
1949 Bowman Paige = 1,500+

Are these the type of true worldly non-graded pops for these random chosen cards?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

I just chose 5 completely random semi high-end cards and looked up the PSA approx. pops in grade 5 and higher:

1915 Cracker Jack Mathewson = 60
1916 M101-4 Sporting News Cobb = 20
T206 Piedmont W. Johnson hands chest = 25
1933 Goudey #53 Ruth = 150
1949 Bowman Satchell Paige = 310

Now what are your guesses as to legit PSA 5 and higher non-graded? If you multiply each by 5 you would get:

1915 CJ Matty = 300
1916 SportNews Cobb = 100
T206 Piedmont W.Johnson = 125
1933 Goudey Ruth = 750
1949 Bowman Paige = 1,500+

Are these the type of true worldly non-graded pops for these random chosen cards?

I believe that's likely to be about right.

The CJ and sporting News are probably a bit tougher than 5x, the T206 and Goudey very close, and the 49 Paige probably a bit easier than 5x.

I collect some stuff that's very close to those for numbers existing in total, and there's very little grading yet. Those things come up for sale about as often as any of those cards raw in 5 or better. Not often, but not impossible -even on Ebay.

Steve B

[FrankWakefield]

No, most of the good stuff isn't graded.

No, an old collector doesn't need slabs to know his cards are legit, or for protection.

Before Mr. Carter decided to sell his cards, did he have any good ones and were they graded. Yes and no... And there are a few hundred more Mr. Carter's out there who know more than the graders and have no use for grading.

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

No, most of the good stuff isn't graded.

No, an old collector doesn't need slabs to know his cards are legit, or for protection.

Before Mr. Carter decided to sell his cards, did he have any good ones and were they graded. No and no... And there are a few hundred more Mr. Carter's out there who know more than the graders and have no use for grading.

That's because Lionel Carter was born in 1918 and started collecting cards in 1933 before slabs and computers were invented.

Had Carter been born in 1982, all his cards would have been slabbed and on the PSA registry.

Fact.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

That's because Lionel Carter was born in 1918 and started collecting cards in 1933 before slabs and computers were invented.

Had Carter been born in 1982, all his cards would have been slabbed and on the PSA registry.

Fact.

I politely disagree. Nothing against PSA but knowing of how Lionel collected he would have used BVG's authentication only service, without numerical grades, to protect his cards. He collected cards and I don't think he would have collected plastic. And saying something is "fact" as you did shows a lack of understanding.

[Touch'EmAll]

So with all these varied opinions of ours, who is willing to step up to the plate and make an educated guess as to actual tangible numbers? I listed 5 random cards in earlier thread with approx PSA pops in 5+ condition grade.

Question: How can we use these figures to extrapolate some actual surviving copies of these cards in legit PSA 5 and higher - that are not encapsulated? I started with a multiple of 5. Too high? Too low?

Do you folks really think there could be 1,500 legit 1949 Bowman Paige's (PSA 5+ equivalent) sitting around in collections by folks that refuse to get them graded?

The coin industry (PCGS company) has already attempted this "survival" for coins a) of all graded, b)mint only coins. Go check out PCGS web and check out their coin "survival" rates. Will PSA or SGC ever try to duplicate this survival estimate like PCGS does with coins?

[markf31]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

The coin industry (PCGS company) has already attempted this "survival" for coins a) of all graded, b)mint only coins. Go check out PCGS web and check out their coin "survival" rates. Will PSA or SGC ever try to duplicate this survival estimate like PCGS does with coins?

I think one of the inherent problems with translating this to the card industry is that there are probably very well kept records in regards to US circulation numbers regarding coins. So extrapolating a "survival" number for a coin can be accomplished. We know how many were produced/minted and how many have been graded, so pulling together numbers is pretty straight forward.

But in the card industry production numbers, especially for vintage pre-war cards are non-existent. We have no idea how many were produced. When you you don't know how many were produced and distributed, coming up with a "survival" number is impossible.

[Brian Van Horn]

Has (most) everything good been graded

No.

[cobblove]

Yes 110% has been graded.
So please stop looking.

[FrankWakefield]

1982.... ugh.

My Cardinals won the World Series that year, I went to game 2. 1982, would be 30 years ago, I have socks older than that.

There's a bunch of collectors who have the old and good stuff that are half that old again. But you make a point... the young collectors have bought into the grading and registry stuff, the old collectors haven't, to a similar extent. 2 collectors of old stuff, one's 75 and the other is 35, which one you reckon has more old stuff?