New NFL Playoff OT Rules Discussion

[JollyElm]

Sorry for the long read!

(Note: There are other ancillary rules involved that don't impact the main point I am looking for opinions on, so I've left them out.)

Starting with the 2022-2023 season, all playoff games that advance to overtime will follow these revised rules:
• If a game is tied at the end of regulation, the referee will toss a coin to determine which team will possess the ball first in overtime. The visiting team captain will call the toss.
• Both teams will have an opportunity to possess the football.

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When looking at this new set-up, a very important decision immediately becomes clear. Does the team 'winning' the coin toss accept the kickoff or defer and allow their opponent to have the first possession?
Time and again I've seen the 'experts' weigh in and say, "You should definitely defer!" That annoys me a bit, because these talking heads seem to exist in a vacuum.

I'm not positive what the best decision is, but it should definitely come down to each individual team's strengths/weaknesses on both sides of the ball - offense and defense.

(I am weighing this decision under the assumption that the first team with the ball WILL score.)

• My first thought is give me that ball first. Number one, I want my team controlling the action (especially in a home game), with the coach basically saying, "I believe in you guys!"
Number two (no crap jokes), your defense gets a bit of a rest after a long, hard fought game, while the other team's 'D' has to get back out there.

But here's my breakdown:

- Say you defer and your opponent scores via an FG or TD. When you get the ball back, now any mistake you make will cost you the game and end your season - a turnover, a missed fourth down conversion, bad penalties, etc. Although these teams are skilled professionals, I would rather put that monumental sudden-death pressure on the other team.

- But say you don't defer and your team takes the kickoff and is able to move down the field and grab three or seven points. Now that awful pressure is on the other team and the crowd will be monstrously disruptive, going bananas for your 'D'!!! Keep 'em from scoring and you win the game!!!


• Buffalo
The Bills are my team, and Josh Allen is often a miracle worker, but his heroics do lead to (many) turnovers. If something like that happens when they have the ball first, it can still be overcome by their defense holding. But if their opponent has the opening possession in OT and scores, then a pick/fumble would have bugles playing 'Taps' all along Lake Erie...so give me the damn ball first!!!!


What's your opinion?
Insert the team/teams you're rooting for into your reasoning if you can.