Vintage card prices: Will 2023-2030 be like 2008-2015?

[parkplace33]

As we close on the end of the year, I am thinking about my collecting goals for the future. I have been collecting since the 1980s and am looking to continue to build my collection.

It’s been an interesting last 3 years in terms of vintage cards prices. I can’t remember a time like it. But I am of the mindset that the next 7 years will be like the era of 2008-2015. That timeframe was mostly a period of flat card prices. You could basically buy the same card for the same price during that time.

I think the next 7 years will be like that, flat card prices. Sure, some super high end/rare cards will set records. But generally, I think flat cards prices for everything else. I do not see a major downturn like some (doom and gloom) but more if a return to the norm.

Id like get the community’s thoughts on this topic. I am sure we all have thoughts

[packs]

I think for some players the prices have risen to where they probably should have been the whole time. I'm thinking of the extra special guys like Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Jackie, etc.

I always thought they were cheap for who they were and just didn't have the money when I was younger to buy them. But I always thought it was pretty cool you could pay $500 to $1,000 and acquire most of the generally easy to find Ruth cards. Even the Bird and Montage E121 cards were super cheap for such a long time.

But then there are the lesser cards that have gone nuts lately and I don't see them sustaining themselves the same way. I think Koufax is overpriced, for example. His rookie was never really all that expensive. I bought a PSA 5 for $250 in the 2008 - 2015 time frame and recently sold it for $1,600.

[BobbyStrawberry]

My almost-certainly-wrong prediction:

Prices will stay similar or come down on everything except the very expensive stuff. Those with the means to play around with 6 and 7 figure card purchases will continue to try and outdo each other by paying increasingly absurd prices.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Checking my crystal ball. Damn, I can't see it clearly.

[Exhibitman]

Downward trending: whatever I own.
Upward trending: whatever I sold.
Neutral: whatever I want but think is overpriced.

Beyond that, I haven't a clue. If I did, I would be trading, not telling.

[Johnny630]

I fully agree with the OP...it’s gonna be flat.....I see no catalyst in the near term for another major run up. The good stuff will still be good and sell strong and or go down the least, the less them sub-optimal will be at more normal levels for a good while. The one think that I believe has changed since 08-15 is many more people think of these cards as investments now as apposed to 15 years ago.

[Touch'EmAll]

The baby boomer's are an abnormally high population percentage. These boomers are what collected and cherished cards from the 1950's thru early 1970's.

As this population group passes, a relatively high amount of these cards will hit the market as sold by their heirs. The supply will increase, but will the demand match the increase in supply to keep prices stable?

Maybe the demand will not be enough to match supply and prices will drop for post-war vintage. Maybe the population of card collectors has increased proportionately with the population increase in the country and overall demand will be able to absorb the cards that will come to market, and prices will do just fine. Maybe a lot of the bjillions of modern card collectors will transition into post-war vintage and prices will actually increase.

There really is a surprising amount of post-war vintage out there. It's the pre-war quality material that is most scarce. I tend to feel the pre-war quality cards stand the best chance to increase in value.

If you do collect post-war (and pre-war also) vintage, remember centering is huge with the demand for near perfect centering at an all time high. These are the cards you will want to own.

[packs]

I do also think there will be a deluge of collections hitting the markets at the semi-same time over the next 10 years as boomers likely die off or cash out, but I'm not sure it'll really matter in the end when it comes to cards from the 50s to 70s.

There are already a ton of them out there. I would say you could search for any mainstream Topps card from the 50s to 70s and find dozens of examples for sale at any given time across all platforms.

So while never really all that rare and never really all that hard to come by, I would think most of the collections that will come to market will feature cards that are already out there for sale and aren't necessarily hurt by abundance.

[Lorewalker]

7 years is an eternity, right now. It will fly by, no question, but not sure how anyone can think they can predict the projection of an entire industry in this very fast paced society in which we live in. I will be this bold and say that over the next 7 years cards will sell.

[Smarti5051]

Since I plan to buy alot more vintage over the next 7 years than I plan to sell, I would happily take a decent plateau of vintage prices. It seems like every time a card I want gets listed for sale, I look at the last 5 sales and each was an all-time high (unless there was an obvious centering/overgrade issue).

That said, I think it ultimately comes down to new entrants into the vintage card market, as well as the overall prosperity of the US and international market. It feels (perhaps incorrectly), that many vintage collectors look at cards as a hybrid hobby and alt investment. Admittedly, so do I. I enjoy the thought of adding a mid-grade 53 Mantle to my portfolio and holding it for my lifetime more than adding another 25 shares of VTI. But, I am one person and can only add about 5-10 cards off my wish list each year. The future really depends on how many others are out there with a similar mindset.

If the overall economy stays at or about its current level, I think the vintage market will continue to be pretty stable with an upward trajectory over time. So, I think the vintage market will continue to be strong until we see a major economic disruption (ie really hard financial times flooding the market with sellers and eliminating buyers) or a massive hobby-specific disruption (ie a new grading technology that objectively establishes that a large segment of the vintage collectables in circulation - including graded - are fake or altered). I don't think either of these events are probable in the near term.