A thought on older psa graded commons.

[iwantitiwinit]

I've been thinking about this for a bit and wanted others opinions. Since it has now become cost prohibitive to have commons graded by PSA (let's say pre-1977 for argument sale) and since individuals still seek to complete set registry's with all cards for a particular year, wouldn't it make sense that eventually there will be a scarcity of graded commons. Eventually, existing commons that have been previously graded should have a spike in value. That as long as the number of sets registered increases there will be demand for those commons and they should have a premium.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

I've been thinking about this for a bit and wanted others opinions. Since it has now become cost prohibitive to have commons graded by PSA (let's say pre-1977 for argument sale) and since individuals still seek to complete set registry's with all cards for a particular year, wouldn't it make sense that eventually there will be a scarcity of graded commons. Eventually, existing commons that have been previously graded should have a spike in value. That as long as the number of sets registered increases there will be demand for those commons and they should have a premium.

I wish that were the case. I have not noticed such a spike.

[Hordfest]

It's very frustrating. I have a ton of beautiful 1936 Goudey Wide Pen Type 1s that I can't justify grading even though they would be potentially Population 1 5-6 range because they are commons and grading is so insane.

[ullmandds]

not sure about this strategy esp in light of many collectors wanting newer PSA slabs?

[bounce]

A "spike" is unlikely, a steady slow increase over time makes some sense at certain grade levels (I would say PSA 5+ for 50s and PSA 7+ for 60s and later)

PSA likely gets back to $25 grading at some point, so might consider using that as an implied floor at some point, but there are still lots of nice looking commons for registry sets that can be had for less than that obviously

[Dandor]

Originally Posted by bounce

A "spike" is unlikely, a steady slow increase over time makes some sense at certain grade levels (I would say PSA 5+ for 50s and PSA 7+ for 60s and later)

PSA likely gets back to $25 grading at some point, so might consider using that as an implied floor at some point, but there are still lots of nice looking commons for registry sets that can be had for less than that obviously

PSA will be back to $25 in 4 months and $15 early next year. This is happening very soon and we will have great collectors club specials and bulk in 2023. PSA graded 1 million cards in March and only 150,000 were new submissions. Once the backlog is done, PSA will need over 1 million cards per month to be submitted. Just be patient and you can get your vintage commons graded much sooner than you think!

[chadeast]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

I've been thinking about this for a bit and wanted others opinions. Since it has now become cost prohibitive to have commons graded by PSA (let's say pre-1977 for argument sale) and since individuals still seek to complete set registry's with all cards for a particular year, wouldn't it make sense that eventually there will be a scarcity of graded commons. Eventually, existing commons that have been previously graded should have a spike in value. That as long as the number of sets registered increases there will be demand for those commons and they should have a premium.

No, this spike has not happened, nor will it IMO. What is much more likely is that graded set collecting, and the importance of the registry, will be much diminished in the future. I think that this is already happening. Even if they get back to sub-$15 grading, which it seems many doubt, a good amount of damage has been done to that realm of collecting in the past year+. I think that PSA has consciously decided that the registry is no longer the thing that drives their business. Based on their actions, it is hard to imagine otherwise. I do also believe that there is a future in which the current card bubble bursts, and that PSA may well regret permanently losing a large chunk of the business they used to get from grading sub-$50 commons.

EDIT: edit to add that I'm not sure what else PSA could have done given the circumstances, so I'm not really blaming them, it is just the reality.

[BobbyStrawberry]

FWIW, I've noticed an uptick in the emails from PSA advertising their $50 per card "deals" - perhaps they're not getting as much action at that rate as they expected?

[Exhibitman]

$20-$25 seems to be a good low price point for the service, provided it is open to cards valued anywhere up to $1,000 or even more. At $500 or less I am not sure that the PSA service adds enough value to justify paying 5% or more to the TPG, but there is definitely a sweet spot between $500 and $1,000 where taking a shot is worth it.

[glchen]

Personally, I think for set collectors, the registry is going to slowly stagnate and even die off. As mentioned, it just makes no sense to spend $50/card for grading a common just to fill a spot in your registry. What's driving submissions these days are folks trying to flip a card for $$$$/investments and not to fill holes in their registry sets. I just don't see folks being that patient and waiting years more for subs to come down to the $10/card mark.

[Yoda]

Given current prices and backlogs (talk about supply chain issues) with TPG's, there just might be a revival of collectors who have decided they like their cards raw just fine, even some high value cards included. The ability to touch and smell the ancient paper is really impossible to replicate when your treasure is entombed in plastic.

Motto: "I grade 'em as I see 'em."

[chadeast]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Given current prices and backlogs (talk about supply chain issues) with TPG's, there just might be a revival of collectors who have decided they like their cards raw just fine, even some high value cards included. The ability to touch and smell the ancient paper is really impossible to replicate when your treasure is entombed in plastic.

Motto: "I grade 'em as I see 'em."

There is a revival, at least I know of one for sure. I'm a set collector. I was a graded set collector, but I've now abandoned the idea of starting any news graded sets. And I'm happy about it. I started my T3 set last April, right around the TPG armageddon, consciously looking for ungraded cards. And I liked them so much that I ended up cracking out (checks spreadsheet...) 20 T3's from a mix of SGC and PSA holders in the process.

I'll admit that I knew for a while that I enjoyed my ungraded cards more than the slabbed ones, but it took a few well publicized PSA scandals (breaking the spell of the registry and pushing me to SGC) and then the grading shutdown (pushing me away from all TPGs) to finally turn me around and force me to accept the truth.

[Dandor]

I have been saying this for the past year. We need a generic registry where we can use any grading company. I was strictly PSA until they closed and now I have SGC, BGS (BVG), and CSG slabs. I am shocked that a company like Market Movers haven't tried to make a registry for all brands of slabs.

[Lobo Aullando]

Personally, I'm holding back 2-3 that are worth sending in at the $50 level, another 15-20 that are worth it at $25, but another hundred that are worthwhile at $12. Pretty typical. I've been holding on for a year already and have no problem holding on a few more. Purely anecdotal.

Maybe they tie it to membership and cap it. Silver gets you general submission, Gold gets you five Economy vouchers and a hundred slots at $10-15 each for max value of $100-200 each, and Platinum gets you ten Economy vouchers with two hundred slots. (Just spitballparking on those specific amounts.) Of course, there's a lot of settling down to go, plus I'm shockingly not a market researcher.

Originally Posted by glchen

Personally, I think for set collectors, the registry is going to slowly stagnate and even die off. As mentioned, it just makes no sense to spend $50/card for grading a common just to fill a spot in your registry. What's driving submissions these days are folks trying to flip a card for $$$$/investments and not to fill holes in their registry sets. I just don't see folks being that patient and waiting years more for subs to come down to the $10/card mark.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by chadeast

No, this spike has not happened, nor will it IMO. What is much more likely is that graded set collecting, and the importance of the registry, will be much diminished in the future. I think that this is already happening. Even if they get back to sub-$15 grading, which it seems many doubt, a good amount of damage has been done to that realm of collecting in the past year+. I think that PSA has consciously decided that the registry is no longer the thing that drives their business. Based on their actions, it is hard to imagine otherwise. I do also believe that there is a future in which the current card bubble bursts, and that PSA may well regret permanently losing a large chunk of the business they used to get from grading sub-$50 commons.

EDIT: edit to add that I'm not sure what else PSA could have done given the circumstances, so I'm not really blaming them, it is just the reality.

Chad,

I tend to agree that with the influx of investors vs. collectors that the registry is not going to be as dominant as before. That coupled with the prohibitive costs of acquiring star/HOF player's cards, let alone the additional cost and time to get them ygraded now.

I do see a potential for all low-level graded cards to maintain a premium over raw cards, simply because of the time, effort, and cost it takes to get them graded, regardless of the registry, as it makes it easier for their resale.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BobC

I do see a potential for all low-level graded cards to maintain a premium over raw cards, simply because of the time, effort, and cost it takes to get them graded, regardless of the registry, as it makes it easier for their resale.

I don't think that conclusion necessarily flows from that circumstance. It sounds like a variant on story you get at a card show from a dealer who wants a premium over market because he is into the card for that much. Who cares what it cost him, the question is what it can be sold for. As my daughter's friends would say, paying too much for something is a "you" problem not a "me" problem.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I don't think that conclusion necessarily flows from that circumstance. It sounds like a variant on story you get at a card show from a dealer who wants a premium over market because he is into the card for that much. Who cares what it cost him, the question is what it can be sold for. As my daughter's friends would say, paying too much for something is a "you" problem not a "me" problem.

Don't disagree at all, but if someone spent $20-$25 for a raw card, and then another $20-$25 to get it graded (plus S&H), they are going to be extremely hesitant to ever sell the card for only the $20-$25 it is truly worth. Unless there is a sudden dire need by them for cash, I would think most people would tell a potential buyer "No thanks!" if they weren't getting at least close to what they had into a card.