Proof that the market value for PSA and 'conserved' cards have dropped

[drcy]

Some say that the values for PSA cards with all those altered and 'conserved' cards mislabelled will stay the same.

But the obvious facts before our faces just dawned on me:

If you want market proof otherwise, all those cards revealed to be mislabelled on BO are being returned for refunds, which is proof that the card owners (and hobby) say they are worth less. I know of no one on any board or anywhere who claims those cards are worth the same and have don't gone down in market value.

Even PSA's official advice is that those cards should be returned for refund, because the cards are worth less than what collector paid. Joe O's PR line on one hand is "Just ignore it you whiners. The rest of you continue going on this wonderful ride with us." However, with the actual specific instances, PSA is saying "The values of these cards has gone down. "

Even on the PSA board, a common question is "If my cards are shown to be altered, what do I do to get my money back?"

So don't anyone give me this theory that all the mislabelled altered cards will remain the same in value and the hobby will 'absorb and forget' about it. Collectors, card owners, PWCC, the PSA board, all the chat boards and PSA itself have unanimously proclaimed in statement and pocketbook that these cards have already gone down in value, and that mislabelled altered and "conserved" cards are worth less than their previous market valuation and less than cards with the same but correct label grade.

With the clear and PSA's admitted inability to correctly label cards and identify altered cards and that a very large number of holdered cards are currently mislabelled, to try to calculate accurate values for PSA cards/grades you have to include the current market values of all these cards that have been returned for refunds. With the plethora of such mislabelled, if yet unknown as such, PSA cards on the market, these outed and devalued cards aren't outliers or to be dismissed from market value calculation but examples of the market value of PSA label grades.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by drcy

Some say that the values for PSA cards with all those altered and 'conserved' cards mislabelled will stay the same.

But the obvious facts before our faces just dawned on me:

If you want market proof otherwise, all those cards revealed to be mislabelled on BO are being returned for refunds, which is proof that the card owners (and hobby) say they are worth less. I know of no one on any board or anywhere who claims those cards are worth the same and have don't gone down in market value.

Even PSA's official advice is that those cards should be returned for refund, because the cards are worth less than what collector paid. Joe O's PR line on one hand is "Just ignore it you whiners. The rest of you continue going on this wonderful ride with us." However, with the actual specific instances, PSA is saying "The values of these cards has gone down. "

Even on the PSA board, a common question is "If my cards are shown to be altered, what do I do to get my money back?"

So don't anyone give me this theory that all the mislabelled altered cards will remain the same in value and the hobby will 'absorb and forget' about it. Collectors, card owners, PWCC, the PSA board, all the chat boards and PSA itself have unanimously proclaimed in statement and pocketbook that these cards have already gone down in value, and that mislabelled altered and "conserved" cards are worth less than those in the same "grade" that aren't.

Agree !!! Not taking anything away from the BO Board Detectives they have done a amazing job exposing this....
The issue to me is the tens of thousands of altered cards still residing in PSA Holders with number grades which haven't been exposed by blowout.
Never buy a holder buy a card :-)

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Agree !!! Not taking anything away from the BO Board Detectives they have done a amazing job exposing this....
The issue to me is the tens of thousands of altered cards still residing in PSA Holders with number grades which haven't been exposed by blowout.
Never buy a holder buy a card :-)

Its way more than tens of thousands.

You are more likely to get a trimmed card by buying it graded by PSA vs buying it raw.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Assuming it's just total incompetence and not being complicit, how does Reza live with himself at this point? It must take a big dose of cognitive dissonance to get up and go to work.

[Promethius88]

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

Considering they are representatives of the PSA's grading abilities and what currently resides in PSA holders, the outed cards and their values are representatives of the values of cards currently in PSA holders/labels.

If, for a completely arbitrary example, 50 percent of PSA cards are misgraded, you don't calculate the value of cards per label grade by removing the misgraded cards and calculating only the cards that are correctly graded, but calculating the value of all the cards. The margin of error in grading and authenticating isn't removed from financial calculations but an integral part of it.

As an admittedly very extreme example, you don't calculate the values of autographs with Coaches Corners COAs by calculating the values as if they were correctly authenticated or only by the ones they got correct. You calculate the values based on what they COAed and their worth. Thus, the misauthenticated PSA cards and the realization of the true market value are market examples of the values of cards in PSA holders and at that label grade.

If representative of the accuracy/reliability/true identities and grades of the cards currently in PSA holders (and I'll let others on this and other boards debate that point), a "$1000" PSA 9 card that turns out the be altered and is really worth $30 that is an example or data point where the PSA is worth $30. Many $1000 PSA9 cards out there and currently being bought and sold are actually worth $30, so you cannot say the average value of a PSA 9 is $1000. And as it's realized that more and more PSA9 cards out there are really worth $30, the known value of a PSA9 moves further and further down from the $1,000 and closer to the $30.

If PSA can get accurate at grading and alteration detection, then this will change. And maybe they will. But if they can't or don't or won't, the mistakes and BO outed cards are to be calculated into the market values of cards that are currently in PSA holders at a certain labeled grade.

In fact, it's right now a nonsensical exercise on its face to try to calculate the condition value of cards in PSA holders because no one knows what are the condition grades of the cards. One certainly can't go by the number on the labels. One might as well try to calculate the condition values of cards in black boxes. However, it is a logically objective, financial and mathematical fact that the average value of the cards themselves are worth less than the values of the grades on the labels. That we know with certainty.

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

Agree. I have not seen anyone say the outed cards would retain their same value.


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[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Assuming it's just total incompetence and not being complicit, how does Reza live with himself at this point? It must take a big dose of cognitive dissonance to get up and go to work.

Nick and I were thinking the exact same thing Peter.....sad isn't it.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Agree !!! Not taking anything away from the BO Board Detectives they have done a amazing job exposing this....
The issue to me is the tens of thousands of altered cards still residing in PSA Holders with number grades which haven't been exposed by blowout.
Never buy a holder buy a card :-)

Never buy the card PERIOD

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Never buy the card PERIOD

Yes Chuck !!

IMO...Post War is for the most part is at Massive Bubble Levels

[Fuddjcal]

Until someone gets hurt. Too bad, so sad. I know, it's only ONE card. What's 15K between collectors for a 64'. There you go, now it's centered!

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1231

Let's all collect what we like and support the fraud!!!!I like Koufax! Come on guys lets go buy buy buy and submit to PSA and watch it POP!!!!!!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Until someone gets hurt. Too bad, so sad. I know, it's only ONE card. What's 15K between collectors for a 64'. There you go, now it's centered!

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1231

Let's all collect what we like and support the fraud!!!!I like Koufax! Come on guys lets go buy buy buy and submit to PSA and watch it POP!!!!!!

Chuck what you just shown is a Perfect Example of How Awful PSA is at deterring wether a Card is trimmed or Not.

Million dollar question to me....Are they, PSA this awful at their Job or is there possibly something bad is going on behind closed doors ?

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Until someone gets hurt. Too bad, so sad. I know, it's only ONE card. What's 15K between collectors for a 64'. There you go, now it's centered!

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1231

Let's all collect what we like and support the fraud!!!!I like Koufax! Come on guys lets go buy buy buy and submit to PSA and watch it POP!!!!!!

Part of this lunacy resides with the collector who paid $15K for a relatively common card.... just because it has sharp corners. I hate to say it, but it's hard to feel sorry for some of these free-spending fools. Someone actually paid exactly 106 times the card's original worth... for a worthless altered card!

That said... this particular Koufax card is so obviously trimmed, that it should be the "poster child" for PSA's ineptitude. Seriously, PSA couldn't even measure it?

Even more disturbing is the fact that 80 - 90% of these documented "astounding value gains" apply to preferred customer PWCC. I would really love to know the true relationship PWCC had with PSA. Hopefully the FBI can figure it out.

[GeoPoto]

I am going to be amazed if PSA doesn't already know how it is going to prevent previously-graded cards from ever being regraded without disclosure. Their business model cannot survive repeated outings ala Blowout IMO. They may continue to struggle to discern all doctoring, but once they grade a card, they must retain the ability to identify it if it comes in raw again.

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[steve B]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

I am going to be amazed if PSA doesn't already know how it is going to prevent previously-graded cards from ever being regraded without disclosure. Their business model cannot survive repeated outings ala Blowout IMO. They may continue to struggle to discern all doctoring, but once they grade a card, they must retain the ability to identify it if it comes in raw again.

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Why would they change? They've already dodged all responsibility and deflected it all as just a bunch of whiners on the internet.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by steve B

Why would they change? They've already dodged all responsibility and deflected it all as just a bunch of whiners on the internet.

Much of it is now out of their control. BO is doing grading for them and their customers and the hobby at large, and collectors are now starting to consider PSA's grading differently and collect and valuate PSA cards differently. If BO exposure of bombshell and mundane cards continues, the hobby will have less and less confidence in PSA's grading abilities and the values for PSA graded cards will change.

I see a paradigm shift in the making. PSA sitting on their hands won't solve the problem and may exacerbate the problem if collectors and the hobby see them as dismissing and ignoring facts and problems. Why would the hobby trust or go to the grading/authenticity opinions of a service that dismisses facts that everyone sees. I think the horse has left the barn as far as PSA's "Move along, nothing to see here" philosophy goes.

At this point, I do not believe anyone with knowledge of this, including collectors who still collect and advocate for PSA, will buy and consider PSA cards in the same way as before. Even a PSA collector pausing or saying "let me double-check before I place a bid" or saying "I'll put off buying high-end cards until this settles" affects valuations and the hobby. Exuberant bidding and bidding psychology is an integral part of hobby pricing and bidding, and a slight tapping on the break or "Let me think about this first" affects things.

I also think a good number of big spenders are going to change, and likely have changed, their buying, there likely will some big exposures in major auctions, and some Registry folks will likely quit buying high end cards. If, for example, you've had several of your five or more figure cards identified as condition fakes now worth a small fraction of the value, it's going to make you pause if not quit. I don't care how much money you have, and who's going to invest in that system?

All you have to do is to go to PSA's own forum, full of PSA homers and advocates who have posted they are either not buying high end graded cards or at least pausing their buying. It's already affected their buying and valuation/consideration of PSA cards-- and that's PSA's home field.

Duly note that posters on PSA's board were as disappointed with Joe. O's "Learn to live with it, quit whining" letter as anywhere else. They are PSA fans, but see a major problem and want PSA to fix or seriously address it.

The funny thing is there likely will be a buyer's renaissance for early GAI cards. They were long left for dead, but now aren't looking so bad, at least in comparison.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by drcy

Much of it is now out of their control. BO is doing grading for them and their customers and the hobby at large, and collectors are now starting to consider PSA's grading differently and collect and valuate PSA cards differently. If BO exposure of bombshell and mundane cards continues, the hobby will have less and less confidence in PSA's grading abilities and the values for PSA graded cards will change.

I see a paradigm shift in the making. PSA sitting on their hands won't solve the problem and may exacerbate the problem if collectors and the hobby see them as dismissing and ignoring facts and problems. Why would the hobby trust or go to the grading/authenticity opinions of a service that dismisses facts that everyone sees. I think the horse has left the barn as far as PSA's "Move along, nothing to see here" philosophy goes.

I think the prices will change. Maybe slowly as the people with enough money to make buys that set prices figure it out.

I don't think PSA will change.
Or SGC, Or Beckett. They're all in the same group as far as I'm concerned.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by steve B

Why would they change? They've already dodged all responsibility and deflected it all as just a bunch of whiners on the internet.

Which should lead any rational person with the conclusion that they don't want to change or acknowledge what they are doing.

That is the #1 thing that let's me know that they are privy to the scam and probably in on it themselves. Trying to sweep it under the rug is not a good look, IMHO but people continue to eat them up in a love fest. Are people really that dopey? I personally have never seen anything like it in my lifetime yet others could care less. THAT's what I find fascinating.

Maybe, just maybe time will tell?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Going to say "Show me the carDfax'

Any accidents? I mean trimming. When did this card/car change hands. What auctions were they sold at

Ok guys what would the CardFox look like? Maybe wearing a cardigan sweater and smoking pipe?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Going to say "Show me the carDfax'

Any accidents? I mean trimming. When did this card/car change hands. What auctions were they sold at

Ok guys what would the CardFox look like? Maybe wearing a cardigan sweater and smoking pipe?

shockingly...cardfax type service is actually a good idea.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Which should lead any rational person with the conclusion that they don't want to change or aknowlede what they are doing.

That is the #1 thing that let's me know that they are privy to the scam and probably in on it themselves. Trying to sweep it under the rug is not a good look, IMHO but people continue to eat them up in a love fest. Are people really that dopey? I personally have never seen anything like it in my lifetime yet other could care less. THAT's what I find fascinating.

Maybe, just maybe time will tell?

Chuck the only cards I would consider buying is one from raw virgin collections. Never graded with no vcp history.

Ahh the days are long over right sir !

Was a lot of fun

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Which should lead any rational person with the conclusion that they don't want to change or acknowledge what they are doing.

That is the #1 thing that let's me know that they are privy to the scam and probably in on it themselves. Trying to sweep it under the rug is not a good look, IMHO but people continue to eat them up in a love fest. Are people really that dopey? I personally have never seen anything like it in my lifetime yet others could care less. THAT's what I find fascinating.

Maybe, just maybe time will tell?

I've seen worse. Not as widespread, but worse.
The ritual satanic abuse panics of the late 80's- early 90's, where people were convicted on testimony that was often wildly absurd.
And which probably ended up making some real but less wildly insane acts go unpunished.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by drcy

If you want market proof otherwise, all those cards revealed to be mislabelled on BO are being returned for refunds, which is proof that the card owners (and hobby) say they are worth less.

How do you know that all of the outed cards are being returned for a refund? IMO, most of them are probably not.

Now it looks like a lot of posters are failing to see what Mr. Cycleback is arguing here. He is stating that we can't exclude altered cards in PSA holders when trying to determine the value of PSA graded cards. He uses a PSA 9 as an example below:

Originally Posted by drcy

a "$1000" PSA 9 card that turns out to be altered and is really worth $30 that is an example or data point where the PSA is worth $30. Many $1000 PSA9 cards out there and currently being bought and sold are actually worth $30, so you cannot say the average value of a PSA 9 is $1000. And as it's realized that more and more PSA9 cards out there are really worth $30, the known value of a PSA9 moves further and further down from the $1,000 and closer to the $30.

I think this is a very interesting way of looking at it. You would have to come up with a mathematical formula and apply it to each PSA graded card in order to come up with a true value. However, creating an accurate formula is going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible. Let's look at the 1957 Topps Frank Robinson rookie in PSA 8 grade, for example. Some of these have obviously been altered. Now the question is this: how many? Half of them? Less than half? Twenty percent? My point is, we would first need to come up with a number which we can use in our formula in trying to determine the true value of the Robinson PSA 8 card and coming up with that number is just not possible.

Another thing that would make it difficult to create a formula is that the number of restored cards varies depending on the grade. IMO, the higher the grade, the more likely the card has been altered. Now I am not saying that you can't find a PSA 3 Frank Robinson rookie that has been altered. Sure, there are some out there, but I believe the percentage is less than a PSA 8. Again, how do we come up with a number here?