VCP or SMR?

[53Browns]

I have always used the SMR as my price guide but I've seen posts on this forum talking about Vintage Card Prices and would like opinions on which one everyone thinks is the true barometer on vintage values. Thanks!

[Rob D.]

I don't think either is a "true" barometer of value. VCP is closer to reality when it comes to previous prices realized. But like a lot of data, the worth of the numbers is often dependent on the person who's doing the interpreting.

[Matt]

for pre-war, SMR is terribly inaccurate for most issues. As an example, you'd be hard pressed to find a PSA 1 Joe Jax CJ at even twice the SMR number.

[Exhibitman]

SMR = POS

I think that was Einstein's Theory of Price Inaccuracy...

[T206Collector]

...thought SMR was worth the paper it was printed on. At least with VCP you can actually get a record of prior sales.

[Robextend]

VCP is by far more accurate.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by Matt

for pre-war, SMR is terribly inaccurate for most issues. As an example, you'd be hard pressed to find a PSA 1 Joe Jax CJ at even twice the SMR number.

Why doesn't SMR update it's prices based on auction results?

[CardTarget]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

Why doesn't SMR update it's prices based on auction results?

Because that would require work.

[Bicem]

VCP does no record BIN's on ebay for some reason, but SMR is pure garbage.

[smtjoy]

Maybe bobby can confirm but I think VCP is now recording all BIN's since ebay made the store listing and bin's the same.

[Griffins]

SMR is one persons theory, VCP is recorded reality.
How you interpret that reality determines how effective it is, but the facts are there.
On one particular set I was following closely, one card in one grade suddenly shot thru the roof in SMR. Sure enough, an advertiser had it in his auction a month later. Thrown them straight into the trash ever since.

[ethicsprof]

vcp

hands down.

best,
barry

[Edwolf1963]

To me, VCP is like a CARFAX Report - not perfect, but has most of the reported information, gives some peace-of-mind and is a worthwhile barometer.

SMR is like those monthly tabloids at the supermarket checkouts that tell you things like Oprah secretly gave birth to an alien child.

[asoriano]

Vintage Card Prices > Sports Market Report

[Steve D]

What are people's thoughts on Beckett's Graded Card Investor magazine?

I use it, as it seems to be much more accurate than SMR.

Steve

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by Edwolf1963

... Oprah secretly gave birth to an alien child.

You know that this will now be reported as "true."

[joeadcock]

VCP will go up and down as cards are sold.
SMR is good to carry around if no access to computer but prices dont vary the same way as cards are sold.

I say VCP, Cardminer, and card pricer combined. Card pricer tracks raw cards also.

Funny how many people say to use VCP when some that are selling quote SMR for prices because they are higher, or VCP when its higher.

[BobbyVCP]

We have been recording BIN sales for a long time now and now all since eBay did away with the stores.

[Bicem]

VCP records the BIN prices from both fixed price ebay listings and auction format BIN listings?

[terjung]

Good question, Jeff. I didn't think that VCP included the eBay "fixed price" BIN sales either. Does it include that now too, Bobby? ...and if so, is that a recent change?

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by terjung

Good question, Jeff. I didn't think that VCP included the eBay "fixed price" BIN sales either. Does it include that now too, Bobby? ...and if so, is that a recent change?

Include me in as one who would like to know as well. Bobby can you please confirm what is and what isn't recorded, and why??

[BobbyVCP]

We record everything that is set on a time schedule and has an ending date either fixed or chinese style format. Our only issue is that in the BIN, FIXED or BO posts to VCP after the time set by the seller expires and not the actual day it sold. This is due to the eBay system and there is nothing we can do about it.

[terjung]

So, are you saying that ALL of the BINs on eBay are recorded - regardless of the format - and that it is only a matter of a potential "date of sale" inaccuracy that gets recorded?

Personally, having the exact date of sale isn't as critical to me (as long as it is reasonably close). Making sure that all of the eBay BINs get included in the data is much more important.

[3-2-count]

Bobby, what Brian said. It can't be made any clearer than that. Without these prices included your data is not accurate.

"Personally, having the exact date of sale isn't as critical to me (as long as it is reasonably close). Making sure that all of the eBay BINs get included in the data is much more important".

[ichieh]

Just curious, when i see either a PSA graded set, or a collection of PSA graded cards, how do you determine the value of that set? Do you simply add all the cards together based on SMR price? Do you factor in the grading fee ($10 per card)? Any additional premium to tag on the item because the set is complete?

[martyp]

All eBay store listings have a time schedule and an ending date. Most of them are set to renew on a new time table.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by ichieh

Just curious, when i see either a PSA graded set, or a collection of PSA graded cards, how do you determine the value of that set? Do you simply add all the cards together based on SMR price? Do you factor in the grading fee ($10 per card)? Any additional premium to tag on the item because the set is complete?

I don't believe they report sets or group of cards, which is a good thing, assigning values to each card would be way too subjective.

[BobbyVCP]

We only report single graded card auctions.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by terjung

So, are you saying that ALL of the BINs on eBay are recorded - regardless of the format - and that it is only a matter of a potential "date of sale" inaccuracy that gets recorded?

and this?

[Rich Klein]

to the simplest terms

The role of VCP is to record all transactions and leave the interpretation of the data up to you

The role of SMR is to analyze sales and give you an opinion of what an average sale(s) of a card in a specific grade are.

Thus, the goals of the two groups are different. VCP, by nature, appeals to the more educated collector as they have learned how to read data and make interpretations.

The goal of SMR is to be a starting poing in discussions based on their analysis of market sales and I believe SRP's of their dealers. Thus, they do appeal to a slightly less sophisticated collector.

Will either way ever be perfect; no -- but remember it depends on what your goal is as a buyer of a seller

Regards
Rich

[Thrill-of-the-Hunt]

i like to use ebay completed listings as a guide as well. i know for rare cards this info may not be available, but for cards that show up on ebay more frequently this is also a great (and quick) way to get some pricing. i know vcp records the data, but i can stay on ebay and move to the next card without surfing through another website. of course, for rare cards, vcp is the best format.

[Wesley]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

We record everything that is set on a time schedule and has an ending date either fixed or chinese style format. Our only issue is that in the BIN, FIXED or BO posts to VCP after the time set by the seller expires and not the actual day it sold. This is due to the eBay system and there is nothing we can do about it.

So VCP is unable to record price data from fixed price listings? That is a shame, since these types of sales make up such a large percentage of transactions on ebay.

If VCP can somehow figure out a way to get around this, it should try to post all the information available, and not be selective.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by Wesley

So VCP is unable to record price data from fixed price listings? That is a shame, since these types of sales make up such a large percentage of transactions on ebay.

If VCP can somehow figure out a way to get around this, it should try to post all the information available, and not be selective.

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

[HRBAKER]

SMR = Pravda

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

a sale is a sale... and all sale info should be reported to get an accurate idea of the market value of a card. if you only report selective data... that is not a true idea of market value.

[Myachelydra]

Originally Posted by Bicem

a sale is a sale... and all sale info should be reported to get an accurate idea of the market value of a card. if you only report selective data... that is not a true idea of market value.

Agreed. "Overpriced" is subjective.

[Matt]

Sociologically, it's always fascinating to me how people are much quicker to respond critically to a post then to read it carefully.

[jmk59]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

It's not one fixed-price sale. It's lots of fixed-price sales. And it doesn't really matter why someone BIN'd an overpriced sale - impatience or whatever. That's as totally legitimate a data point as when someone that patiently shops, snipes, and wins classic ebay auctions.

Omitting fixed-price sales definitely skew the numbers. Many hobbyists are using online pricing services to draw a line in the sand and say "not a penny more" when they buy cards. This affects the market by putting a damper on prices because many subscribers believe that online pricing numbers reflect "true market". The more true market transactions left out, the less "true market" the numbers become. But people mistakenly rely on them.

I'm curious too as to where the line is drawn in price reporting. I had always understood that it was auction only and used that info as part of my overall thinking in a transaction. But I think somewhere Bobby said/mentioned that they now include fixed-price sales, so I also am interested if this has changed.

To me, if it's a reliable number, it should be reported if the electronic gathering process is reasonable as to burden (on VCP, cardpricer, etc) and reliability (not subject to widespread manipulation by parties to the reported transactions).

Joann

PS - Rich Klein's post above about the difference between SMR and online price guides is completely awesome. What a great distillation of the issue. I wish more people would take the "sophisticated collector" audience of the online guides to heart, understand the responsibility to interpret the reports, and not take the numbers as hard fast gospel on exact value. Nice post Rich!

[Wesley]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

You would rather have no information for rare cards than information for fixed price sales?

Most people would rather have more information available at their hands. They can then take that information and weigh the information as they deem appropriate.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I'm not sure why this information is so important. Most fixed price listings are overpriced anyway and are purchased by those who don't want to be patient and wait for an auction.

If the card is so rare that there is no information on VCP, Then I don't know how one fixed price sale can help determine the market value.

Matthew. This information is very important because the sole purpose of VCP is to record all sales of cards at auction. That's what the subscriber pays for. If their data is missing fixed priced auction items it's not an accurate level. I have purchased many cards at the fixed price level which were not over priced as I'm sure many on here have as well. Those transactions need to be included on VCP and not held hostage with those items that are outrageously listed. Those so called overpriced examples, (yes, there is alot of them) won't be selling anyway so your only keeping out the fair fixed priced BIN's that are actually turning in the market. Bobby if your listening, how doesn't this make sense??

[HRBAKER]

A sale is a sale, whether it may be a "overpriced" BIN or not. VCP users are fairly astute I would think. The site offers detail about what transactions comprise the "composite" average for a certain card right? If you have a card that is routinely trading the 5-600$ range and there is one BIN transaction for $1500 that skews the average most collectors/buyers will discount the legitimacy of that while formulating their buy price, but it is still a legitimate transaction and needs to be reported. The site does need to make very clear the difference between ebay auctions and BINS. To a much smaller extent don't we already do this when we back out the Buyer's Premium from the auction house's reported sales?

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

Matthew. This information is very important because the sole purpose of VCP is to record all sales of cards at auction. That's what the subscriber pays for. If their data is missing fixed priced auction items it's not an accurate level. I have purchased many cards at the fixed price level which were not over priced as I'm sure many on here have as well. Those transactions need to be included on VCP and not held hostage with those items that are outrageously listed. Those so called overpriced examples, (yes, there is alot of them) won't be selling anyway so your only keeping out the fair fixed priced BIN's that are actually turning in the market. Bobby if your listening, how doesn't this make sense??

I guess your right, I was just stating my opinion. I have hit the BIN too when I see a fair price. I usually knew the price was fair because it resembled previous auctions or whats current on VCP. The BINs either resemble SMR, VCP, completed listings or are overpriced. I personally don't care. To me the most important info is in there.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I personally don't care. To me the most important info is in there.

Just not all of it though. Bobby, feel free to jump in.

[cfc1909]

I think you are right on and you are not getting accurate info or you moneys worth if all the info isn't there.

If you are going to offer a service for a premium you need to be through.

Bobby -listen to you customers, its good buisness.

[dstudeba]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I guess your right, I was just stating my opinion. I have hit the BIN too when I see a fair price. I usually knew the price was fair because it resembled previous auctions or whats current on VCP. The BINs either resemble SMR, VCP, completed listings or are overpriced. I personally don't care. To me the most important info is in there.

But is the most important info there? I think VCP is very helpful, but how much of the market is it reporting? It isn't reporting raw or groups already. We can make general blanket statements about overpriced BINs because it is and easy target, but do we have know what percentage of single card graded sales are BINs? If it is 10% then I am OK with VCP, if it is 50% I have serious concerns. I have no idea what percentage of sales it is actually reporting, and this fact worries me.

[Matthew H]

I'm ok as long as they report the net54 B/S/T sales

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

I'm ok as long as they report the net54 B/S/T sales

Now that's a must!!

[Matt]

Can someone point me to the post where Bobby said they don't record fixed price/BIN sales?

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

We record everything that is set on a time schedule and has an ending date either fixed or chinese style format. Our only issue is that in the BIN, FIXED or BO posts to VCP after the time set by the seller expires and not the actual day it sold. This is due to the eBay system and there is nothing we can do about it.

Matt,

Post #23 is confusing, at best.