Goldin 100 auction

[ichieh]

The sale has been very quiet so far with only few hours to go. Do you think it is because the economy has been choppy, or people simply wait until the last minute to bid? I am surprised the 1957 Mantle jersey and the MJ sneakers didn't generate a bid in over a month.

[ichieh]

And the Brady jersey has a high reserve

[ichieh]

and this LBJ playoff jersey is only at $42K

https://goldin.co/item/may-1-2017-le...giOjM4fQ%3D%3D

[Leon]

I don't follow those markets but there's a lot of stuff being sold lately. It seems more than normal, if there's a normal.
.

[ichieh]

The Mantle jersey is photo matched to 10 games, including matched to his first career cycle game. It was projected to hammer over a million and now it's only sitting at $375K. The LBJ jersey came from a playoff game where he scored like 38 points. His regular season jersey usually sold around $100K, and right now it's only at $42K. Very strange.

[ichieh]

Maybe there is a Mantle and LBJ fatigue in the market

[rlevy]

A lot of the heavy hitters wait until extended bidding to bid top numbers. I think we need to see where they end up before trying to assess the market.

Rick

[ichieh]

we are in the extended period now and still not much of activity. Where are all the heavy hitters go?

[Lordstan]

Personally, I think much of this stuff is in a bit of a bubble from the big push of the pandemic. Obviously people should collect what they like, but I would never buy some of this stuff at these prices.
I keep getting proven wrong, but a ton of stuff has retracted so perhaps it's now happening with this stuff.
We'll see how it ends.

Sent from my SM-F946U using Tapatalk

[Topnotchsy]

Mantle has sold.

This image captures a world I don't begin to fathom.

(I do recognize that these are essentially entirely different markets and collector bases but wow...)

[ichieh]

The Mantle jersey had 9 bids on day 1, and since then no bid. Very interesting

[rlevy]

I was reluctant to comment prior to closing, but the Mantle jersey, while impressive for being photo-matched to so many games, was restored on the front. Pre-pandemic, most HOF vintage jerseys were tough sales if restored, and sold for substantially less than one that was all original. It seemed to change a bit during the pandemic as new players entered the big ticket market, and it may be settling down a bit now. Most of the big hitters have always wanted all-original jerseys, and having a Mantle jersey with the NY restored, no matter how well done, is a non-starter. It would drive them crazy to look at it on their wall, knowing an important part of the jersey wasn't original. I have sold many big ticket items, and the first question I get is always about originality. So while the market may indeed be softening, I think it is hard to gauge the vintage baseball jersey market based on this one sale.

Rick

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by rlevy

I was reluctant to comment prior to closing, but the Mantle jersey, while impressive for being photo-matched to so many games, was restored on the front. Pre-pandemic, most HOF vintage jerseys were tough sales if restored, and sold for substantially less than one that was all original. It seemed to change a bit during the pandemic as new players entered the big ticket market, and it may be settling down a bit now. Most of the big hitters have always wanted all-original jerseys, and having a Mantle jersey with the NY restored, no matter how well done, is a non-starter. It would drive them crazy to look at it on their wall, knowing an important part of the jersey wasn't original. I have sold many big ticket items, and the first question I get is always about originality. So while the market may indeed be softening, I think it is hard to gauge the vintage baseball jersey market based on this one sale.

Rick

That's an important point. I never read the description, so I was not aware of the details, but that's a very significant factor.

Does anyone know what the pre-auction estimate on it was? Did they anticipate this, or was it $1M+?

[rlevy]

Jeff, I had thought the pre-sale estimate was $1mm+ but can't be sure. I tend to take pre-sale estimates on baseball game used jerseys with a grain of salt since every jersey is unique. Mantle jerseys are scarce and highly desirable, however year, originality, and condition all can affect the pool of prospective buyers and hence the price. I was a little surprised it didn't go a bit higher given it was from his MVP year and photo-matched to his cycle game that year, and I imagine Goldin was a little surprised as well, but the impact of the restoration on the price was impossible to predict.

Rick

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by rlevy

Jeff, I had thought the pre-sale estimate was $1mm+ but can't be sure. I tend to take pre-sale estimates on baseball game used jerseys with a grain of salt since every jersey is unique. Mantle jerseys are scarce and highly desirable, however year, originality, and condition all can affect the pool of prospective buyers and hence the price. I was a little surprised it didn't go a bit higher given it was from his MVP year and photo-matched to his cycle game that year, and I imagine Goldin was a little surprised as well, but the impact of the restoration on the price was impossible to predict.

Rick

The market has swung so rapidly in the last few years that it is hard to get any sort of handle on the market.

Heritage had some huge jerseys their last sale. The Koufax rookie jersey at $1.8M and Walter Johnson jersey for $2M missed estimates by a decent amount if I am not mistaken.

Time will tell where these settle. Truly remarkable pieces.

[ichieh]

Well, Mantle's jerseys don't grow from tree, so to me this jersey was way under valued and should have gone higher.

[perezfan]

Hard to say the Jersey was undervalued with the front being restored.

Think of it like a '52 Topps Mantle Card with the script "Mickey Mantle" portion erased and then re-written in. Serious Uniform collectors want them to be all-original and as worn by the player.

[ichieh]

last time I checked a 1952 Topps Mantle in any grade is doing pretty well, including those that are trimmed or has major crease.
5-10 years from now, if people still collect Mickey Mantle's jersey, this one will look dirt cheap.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Hard to say the Jersey was undervalued with the front being restored.

Think of it like a '52 Topps Mantle Card with the script "Mickey Mantle" portion erased and then re-written in. Serious Uniform collectors want them to be all-original and as worn by the player.

I definitely get the preference, but I don't think I agree with the comparison. If a collector has the budget, they can find 50+ 1952 Mantle's to choose from at any moment without much work. Finding another Mantle jersey is a much harder task.

[packs]

Do you guys think the jersey would have done better with no restoration? I'm interested in what the better decision is. With game used it seems like eye appeal can get in the way of what's preferred.

[rlevy]

No question, restoration of the NY was the right decision. Without it, the jersey would have sold for much less.
As a side-note, five years ago, Mantle jerseys, all-original, sold in the $500k-600k range. Last year, a 1958 all original sold for over $4mm. Kind of crazy to think that the restoration of the NY, which would be undetectable by most, probably resulted in the jersey selling for a small fraction of the 1958 jersey. Both jerseys were used by Mantle during great years in his career.

We collectors are a strange lot.

Rick

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by packs

Do you guys think the jersey would have done better with no restoration? I'm interested in what the better decision is. With game used it seems like eye appeal can get in the way of what's preferred.

Not sure if this answers your question but I can offer this example:

A few weeks ago, Heritage had a bunch of vintage Twins flannels. One was a 1968 Jerry Zimmerman road. Jerry wore #22, but this shirt had a vintage number change to 21, for use in the minors or subsequent spring training. The previous owner had the "1" removed and replaced with a modern "2" so the jersey now looks as it did in '68, with #22. The fading left by the removed "1" is easily visible.

I would have MUCH preferred the jersey still had the #21 on it, because that was what the team did to it, probably in 1969. So, it wouldn't be in original condition (as issued in 1968,) but it would be original to '69 or 1970.

As it currently is, it's a mostly 20th century GU shirt, with a modern, non-original "2" cluttering up the back.