Slightly OT - Are we at the end of the road for 300 win/3000 hit players?

[mr2686]

I've been collecting 3000 hit tickets for the last few years, and with the retirement of IROD, the only person close to 3000 hits is AROD (and he should get it next year providing he doesn't get hurt). Damon had an outside shot but has not been signed yet this year. Other than that, I don't think anyone has even an outside shot. As for 300 win pitchers, unless Moyer pitches in to his 60's, I don't think anyone has a legit shot either (maybe Sabathia, but that's a bit of a long shot too). Does anyone think that we'll see anyone else in these clubs in our lifetime? It just doesn't seem like players are playing long enough to put up those numbers. I think that's sad on both a fan and collector level.

[D. Bergin]

I think 3000 hit guys will continue to develop.

300 Win guys I think will become more and more infrequent as the trend to try and protect valuable arms (often misguided) continues. Even with the development of better medical techniques and rehabilitation methods.

[ctownboy]

It will be tougher but there will be some players, I think, who will play long enough to get to those marks.

Moyer had Tommy John surgery and then came back at 49.

Damon signed with the Indians and is currently in the Minors. Should be up by early May.

Petitte retired and then had a change of heart.

With the improvement in medical procedures and rehab and the huge money that these guys can still make, there WILL be guys hanging on just to get the numbers.

The two problems I see right now are 1) guys going to college instead of signing out of high school and 2) teams NOT bringing up young players when they are ready because of the fear of Super Two status and 3) teams NOT keeping old players like they used to.

In the old days, there were more guys coming to baseball straight out of high school and there wasn't anything like Super Two to worry about. So, you could have a 19, 20 or 21 year-old kid coming up and being able to play for 20 years. Now, that 19 or 20 year-old kid is in college and THEN gets drafted and spends time in the Minors.

So, by the time they are ready (and after the team has kept them in the Minors just long enough to keep them from Super Two) they are 23. 24 or 25. Which means it is going to be tough to stay in the Majors for 20 years.

Then, of course, there are guys like Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez and Derek Lee who COULD still play but aren't being given the chance for some reason (probably because a team would rather give a scrub like Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes or Corey Patterson one or two million dollars instead of the larger contracts these guys would want).

Then again, these older players might have too much pride and are overvaluing what they bring to the table. So, instead of swallowing their pride and playing for "only" one million dollars they hold out for more and don't get it.

David

[novakjr]

The Indians signed Damon the other day. He won't get 3000 though, unless he hangs on in limited/platoon roles for a few years.. He might be a DH possibility for Houston once them move the AL..

Honestly, in our lifetime, I think we'll see plenty of 3000 hit members...300 win clubbers will be scarce, but we'll see a few. But then again, I've always viewed wins as a circumstantial stat, rather than a solely performance based one. I think they're the pitcher's equivalent of the rbi.. 500 hr clubbers surprisingly, I think will start to get a little more scarce in the years to come..

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by mr2686

I've been collecting 3000 hit tickets for the last few years, and with the retirement of IROD, the only person close to 3000 hits is AROD (and he should get it next year providing he doesn't get hurt). Damon had an outside shot but has not been signed yet this year. Other than that, I don't think anyone has even an outside shot. As for 300 win pitchers, unless Moyer pitches in to his 60's, I don't think anyone has a legit shot either (maybe Sabathia, but that's a bit of a long shot too). Does anyone think that we'll see anyone else in these clubs in our lifetime? It just doesn't seem like players are playing long enough to put up those numbers. I think that's sad on both a fan and collector level.

I'm very much focused on studying pitchers and the art of pitching, so I definitely would like to chime in on this topic, FWIW.

I definitely wouldn't count out Roy Halladay and possibly Justin Verlander for the 300 win club. BTW, there was a time that I thought we had reached the end of an era for the 300 Win club, but now I'm not so sure. Moyer is a genuine dark horse to get there because he certainly is at the end of his career. I personally do not think he will make it, although I am not rooting against him doing it.

Halladay and Justin Verlander are both horses and I think that one or both have what I would call the "right stuff" to get there. Both are strong, ultra competitive guys that go long in innings. The amount of innings that you average per game as a starter is very important in order to have a great chance at making the 300 win club. Most relief corps are diluted these days and especially the guys that pitch 5th and 6th innings are usually gasoline cans in disguise. Pitchers that do a better job of controlling their own destinies end up with more W's. JM2cents.

Photo: Justin Verlander during his 2012 MVP Pitching Triple Crown season- Anaheim Stadium

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by ctownboy

It will be tougher but there will be some players, I think, who will play long enough to get to those marks.

Moyer had Tommy John surgery and then came back at 49.

Damon signed with the Indians and is currently in the Minors. Should be up by early May.

Petitte retired and then had a change of heart.

With the improvement in medical procedures and rehab and the huge money that these guys can still make, there WILL be guys hanging on just to get the numbers.

The two problems I see right now are 1) guys going to college instead of signing out of high school and 2) teams NOT bringing up young players when they are ready because of the fear of Super Two status and 3) teams NOT keeping old players like they used to.

In the old days, there were more guys coming to baseball straight out of high school and there wasn't anything like Super Two to worry about. So, you could have a 19, 20 or 21 year-old kid coming up and being able to play for 20 years. Now, that 19 or 20 year-old kid is in college and THEN gets drafted and spends time in the Minors.

So, by the time they are ready (and after the team has kept them in the Minors just long enough to keep them from Super Two) they are 23. 24 or 25. Which means it is going to be tough to stay in the Majors for 20 years.

Then, of course, there are guys like Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez and Derek Lee who COULD still play but aren't being given the chance for some reason (probably because a team would rather give a scrub like Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes or Corey Patterson one or two million dollars instead of the larger contracts these guys would want).

Then again, these older players might have too much pride and are overvaluing what they bring to the table. So, instead of swallowing their pride and playing for "only" one million dollars they hold out for more and don't get it.

David

Hi David,
You made some good points in your post. Nice job!

One comment:
Don't always count out the 24 and 25 year olds. Lefty Grove and more recently Randy Johnson were both 25 before they threw their first pitch in the major leagues. Both ended up with over 300 wins. Maybe it's a stubborn lefty thing?

[packs]

If Tim Hudson didn't get hurt 2 years ago and miss the entire season I thought he had a real chance at 300 wins. Now it seems like it's out of his reach. He's 35 and hurt again this year. But 181 wins in 13 years is pretty incredible. He never gets talked about. Also he shares the distinction of being the only pitcher to pitch more than 10 full seasons and never have a losing record. Andy Pettitte is the other pitcher.

I still think Ichiro is going to get 3000 hits. He is 600 away.

Still think plenty of pitchers will win 300 games but we won't know who's on their way for a little while. Pitching critics should relax. There are plenty of guys going out there and throwing.

edited to add: Do we really not know why teams won't sign Vlad or Magglio? Vlad was just arrested for fighting police officers and Magglio doesn't have knees.

[mr2686]

As of a few years ago, I thought Ichiro would do it too...but he seems very mortal the last season plus. I think it would be a great story if he does, but I'm not holding my breath.

[7nohitter]

What's the over/under on that fella' pitching in Washington....#37...not sure of the kid's name.

[packs]

I still think Ichiro will have no problem getting to 3000. He had a terrible year last year and still finished with 184 hits and 40 stolen bases. He's a private guy. Maybe he was dealing with a private issue. Or maybe all those years in Seattle are making him depressed.

[Matt]

Interesting that the whole movement of pitch counts and 5 days rest between starts are relatively new concepts and seem to be invertly related to the number of 300 game winners. The whole point was for career longevity.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by Matt

Interesting that the whole movement of pitch counts and 5 days rest between starts are relatively new concepts and seem to be invertly related to the number of 300 game winners. The whole point was for career longevity.

You are correct. Interesting side note:

If you haven't heard this, Nolan Ryan feels that this philosohy is all wrong, BTW. His coaching staff has starters pitching more, not less in order to develop more pitching arm strength and stamina.

So far you can't argue with the results. The Texas Rangers organization seems to be heading in the right direction and their pitching staff is looking pretty good.

[packs]

Were they saying this kind of stuff in the 80s? Because if they were, just counting pitchers who began their careers post-1985 the following pitchers won 300 games:

Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine

If you look at 3,000 hit players who began their careers after 1985 you have:

Craig Biggio
Derek Jeter
Rafael Palmeiro

More 300 game winners.

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by packs

If you haven't heard this, Nolan Ryan feels that this philosohy is all wrong, BTW. His coaching staff has starters pitching more, not less in order to develop more pitching arm strength and stamina.

So far you can't argue with the results. The Texas Rangers organization seems to be heading in the right direction and their pitching staff is looking pretty good.

Jim Kaat always preaches against the pitch count coddling as well. He knows a thing or two about pitching and I'd vote him in the HOF. Great ambassador for the game and a thinking fan's announcer.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by Mr. Zipper

Jim Kaat always preaches against the pitch count coddling as well. He knows a thing or two about pitching and I'd vote him in the HOF. Great ambassador for the game and a thinking fan's announcer.

+1

[GKreindler]

Agree wholeheartedly on Kaat. Aside from a great career as a pitcher, he was one hell of a broadcaster. Listening to Yankee games still makes me miss him VERY much. Especially since I have less than stellar opinions of their other troops. But seriously, hearing him dissect the players on the field, talk about pitching, and supplying stories from his days in baseball made for a very engaging listen.

I've VERY much had enough of Kay. But, I digress!

Graig

[thebigtrain]

I've VERY much had enough of Kay. But, I digress!

Kay is simply, in a word, awful. Yet is seems we're stuck with him for eternity. He should've been fired after that Juan Rivera incident, where he wrongly accused him (on the air during a game) of stealing Jeter's glove to sell.

I love love love Mike Mussina simply for the fact that he openly hated Micheal Kay and refused to ever do an interview w/ him. Kay still is bitter about it, and probably the most childish, immature brat ever given an MLB announcer's job.

I also hate the new Yankee Stadium and don't really watch or follow baseball anymore. It just seems like all the fun is sucked out of it anymore.

[Wite3]

If you want to be technical...Ichiro already has over 3,000 hits...2,300+ in the MLB and over 1,000+ in Japan's major league. Not sure he will get there in the majors but not counting him out.

Joshua

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by GKreindler

Agree wholeheartedly on Kaat. Aside from a great career as a pitcher, he was one hell of a broadcaster. Listening to Yankee games still makes me miss him VERY much. Especially since I have less than stellar opinions of their other troops. But seriously, hearing him dissect the players on the field, talk about pitching, and supplying stories from his days in baseball made for a very engaging listen.

I've VERY much had enough of Kay. But, I digress!

Graig

Kaat and Ken Singleton are my two favorite Yankee announcers of the past couple decades or so.

Both are even-handed, smart and concise, without the hyperbole and constant second guessing of opposing managers that Michael Kay likes avail upon us on a non-stop basis.

[thenavarro]

Both Michael Young and Ichiro will get at least 3000 hits MO

[D. Bergin]

Pujols should get there if he stays healthy.

True, after A-Rod and possibly Damon, there's a big gap. Not many within striking distance right now. Miguel Cabrera could enter the discussion in a few years if he doesn't have a steep decline.

Ichiro is a long shot. I'm not sure what he has left. Would have been an easy lock if he entered the league just a couple years sooner.

Omar Vizquel would have to play into his 50's in a utility role, as close as he is right now, it might as well be 2000 hits away.

[mr2686]

You could very well be right about Cabrera. At 29, he's half way to both 3000 and 500 hr's. We'll have to check back in with him in about 6 or 7 years.

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Kaat and Ken Singleton are my two favorite Yankee announcers of the past couple decades or so.

Both are even-handed, smart and concise, without the hyperbole and constant second guessing of opposing managers that Michael Kay likes avail upon us on a non-stop basis.

Kay actually doesn't bother me that much... Perhaps my utter disdain for Sterling has blinded me to Kay's shortcomings.

I miss Kaat as a Yankee regular and it peeves me I can never hear him and Costas on MLB Network due to local blackout.

Flaherty is pretty decent, but I am not crazy about most players turned announcers as the Yankees seem to be favoring these days. Makes you wonder how many future Vin Scullys we'll never get to hear because slots are occupied by former players who otherwise wouldn't qualify for a college radio gig.

[packs]

I always like it when Paul O'neill is on.