Will set collectors dry up the supply?

[Tomman1961]

Just wondering if anyone ever thought about this. Will there be a point in time when no one wants to sell their cards? When they get bought up by collectors and there just are no more around. Hope I word this correctly. Will cards availability dry up?

[glchen]

I think in most cases, market forces will always ensure that there is some supply. That is, as availability starts to "dry up," prices will increase for those cards. At some point, the owners of those cards will decide that these prices are too good and sell them. There will be exceptions of course where the pops for certain cards are simply too miniscule and the owners don't need the money.

[Section103]

I think there are more people on this board that are concerned that the buyers will dry up over a longer period time.

[sandmountainslim]

The collectors (us) will eventually die and their sets will be split up in the marketplace over and over again. Imagine how many collectors the typical pre-war card has already been thru

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by sandmountainslim

The collectors (us) will eventually die and their sets will be split up in the marketplace over and over again. Imagine how many collectors the typical pre-war card has already been thru

Man that's depressing

[frankbmd]

will someone please help me complete my sets?

[sportscardpete]

You know what I can't wait for?


The prices of nicer t206's goes up too much and the majority of the collectors decide to switch to the caramel and bakery sets.

Then caramel prices will rise and all the caramel collectors who refuse to sell at depressed prices currently will begin to unload their cards (hint hint thats a lot of cards). There can be a strong argument that a lot of caramel cards today are being kept in hiding because prices for them are too low.

Then caramel prices will become too expensive and t206 prices will come back down.


Everyone will start selling their caramel cards and move back into t206's.


Ladies and gentlemen, that's called a cycle.

Is it too early in the morning for deep thought?

[jefferyepayne]

It also seems like as long as the split up value of a set is worth more than the set as a whole, there will be incentive for set collectors to split sets up when they decide to sell.

I personally have always scratched my head at the notion that a complete set is worth less than the individual cards. I understand the whole "carrying cost" argument for common cards and how inventory works for dealers but in most antiques and collectibles, complete sets of things garner a premium when they are difficult to put together. I haven't compared set prices to individual card prices for very old card sets but would hope that at some point there is a premium for complete sets.

Is that now true for some sets or not? Is there a trend toward or away from sets having a premium? Just curious.

jeff

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

You know what I can't wait for?


The prices of nicer t206's goes up too much and the majority of the collectors decide to switch to the caramel and bakery sets.

Then caramel prices will rise and all the caramel collectors who refuse to sell at depressed prices currently will begin to unload their cards (hint hint thats a lot of cards). There can be a strong argument that a lot of caramel cards today are being kept in hiding because prices for them are too low.

Then caramel prices will become too expensive and t206 prices will come back down.


Everyone will start selling their caramel cards and move back into t206's.


Ladies and gentlemen, that's called a cycle.

Is it too early in the morning for deep thought?

Funny thing is, there are those who follow the prices and buy high, then sell low, then repeat.

[mrvster]

Pete...

Your cycle theory is plausable.....but, T206 have always trended up....i think if anything they would just level off, or trend up at a very slow rate....just recently, they have trended exponentially higher than average i presume....i do beleive these cards are a good investment....history has shown this well over 100 years....a timeless popularity fuels this set is almost an anomaly onto itself, that's what fuels it.....part of the mystic,....


t206 and caramel cards inmho are on two different levels....i m sure other collectors would agree....it's been also fueled by the wags...no comparison...ok ok shoeless joe...blah blah blah.... the ruths....the 33 naps....ojs .... etc etc...

i have not studied statistics in a few years, but i would love to see some hard core numbers/random samples and regression analysis to the ror on t206...historically........that would just solidify what i have seen in my micro cosm of a 14 year general"feel" for them...

[Ladder7]

Originally Posted by ScottFandango

Man that's depressing

Not for us buyers!

[Tomman1961]

SandMountainSlim:
Good point. My kids have no interest in my collection. So when I kick the bucket, I told her to sell,sell,sell.

I have kept my eye on the T210 series 6 cards for a while now. I am just now at the point where I can hold on to and collect them again. I have three cards and a postcard of the Winchester team. The Winchester team is going to be my focus as I am from there. I have noticed times when ungraded lower conditions cards went for roughly 60 dollars each. Then up to two years ago lesser condition cards were going for up to 200 dollars each. Now it seems that many cards have leveled out at around 100.00 a piece. I just won a T210 Atwell SGC 30 for 102.00 on ebay. I also bought a raw low condition Van Landingham Shelbyville for 60.00 in the bin from Joesvintage on ebay. I consider that a steal because it is my opinion that Van Landingham Shelbyville is a tough card in the set but then most T210 6 cards are tough to find. The problem I have seen is that when T210 6 cards do come up for sale a lot of times they are in huge collections that are way out of my budget. But the market has went up and down on these in the last few years.

Tony