Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate
Every lot has someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else. If he goes after the lot aggressively, and has a lot of money to spend, I don't know of any strategy that is going to pry that lot away. You can try bidding really high the first day, but I'll guess that's a 50-50 shot at best. Bottom line is if somebody wants the lot more badly than you do I don't think there's a bidding strategy that will change the final result.
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Barry,
I agree that your comments fit perfectly in a scenario where "whales" are chasing a rare or even scarce item.
However, the vast majority of lots in REA (and in other auctions I participate in) don't fit that. Many of the cards in these lots come up for auction frequently and final prices fall within a pretty well-established range. From what I've seen, most bidders hold up at around the "going" price on lots like this. I'd be very surprised to see a T-206 Cobb in PSA 4 go beyond prior recorded sales. Nobody wants to pay a record price for a card like this that is for sale every month. Sometimes a card like this can be had for a bit less than prior sales...and I think it helps to have fewer competitors who could jump in on a card like this at the eleventh hour.
Also, I'm not sure a card always goes to "someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else". This seems impossible, so let me explain. I'm thinking of two very specific scenarios.
First, I have often browsed auctions in overtime and saw lots where the top bid seemed to be a bargain. I would be happy to up the bid at least one increment (maybe more). Unfortunately, I had not bid on that lot in regular time, so I could not. That top bid then won the day. Was the winner willing to pay more than everyone else? Quite possibly not, because I would have gone higher (we'll never know if he also would have gone higher). But the competition on the lot was narrowed by the rules of the auction and/or bidding strategy.
Second, most savvy buyers know what cards sell for (VCP, etc.). And on frequently sold cards, there is a pretty tight range. If I'm bidding on such a lot in REA and I know the "going" price is $2400, I'll probably only bid up to the $2000 increment (that makes $2350 with the BP). The next bidder has to decide if he wants to pay $2644 for that card - that is the next increment. The difference is almost $300...over 10% of the value of the lot. Maybe this seems like small potatoes to some, but my experience - even in REA - is that most bidders won't do this. Now maybe this guy would have been happy to pay $2400 or even $2450, but he does not have that choice...he has to pay $2644 or let it go. So bidding strategy will help you get a lot like this.
These are not just abstract thoughts - these are my experiences bidding at REA and elsewhere.
Cheers,
Blair