Posted By:
Kevin CummingsJay:
So what are you saying? Players should retire before the downside of their career affects their overall ranking? Should Matty have quit in 1914 so those last two mediocre years didn't tarnish his averages? He still would be the third best pitcher ever (according to Vail).
Longevity, in and of itself, doesn't get someone into the Hall of Fame. If it did, Deacon McGuire would have been in long ago. But you and I have about as much chance of getting in as he does because his other numbers don't warrant consideration. But you can't punish someone for accumulating statistics while they are playing.
Regardless of the reason for continuing (whether it's a self-serving run for a personal record or the hope that the team will make the playoffs), a player's career totals are what they are. As I said, Vail admits that cumulative statistics are often overemphasized by Hall of Fame voters so his Cooperstown Baseline calculation takes that into account since each cumulative category is just another Z score which, when used in conjunction with the other 29 rankings (nine of which are averages), gives an overall comparison.
It isn't perfect, but it's certainly less subjective and it is SABRmetric! 