[Archive]

Posted By: sagard

It's a nice arguement about the Angel's, but the numbers don't support it.

From the Hardballtimes.com guys:

Finally, we make one other adjustment, for strength of schedule. Obviously, it's easier to win a lot when you have an easy schedule. So using ESPN's strength of schedule calculations, we subtract the number of extra wins a team is expected to get because of their schedule. For example, if a team has a .490 SOS, they are expected to win (.500 - .490)*162 = 1.62 more games than an average team, so we subtract 1.62 from their "Dartboard Factor."

Using the Twins and Angels Strength of Schedule numbers: 0.507 vs. 0.511 we have:

(Angels =0.511 - Twins=0.507) * 162 = 0.65 Wins. Basically due to scheduling the Twins would expect to win one additional game than the Angels. That would cut the Twins eight game lead down to seven, and they still clinch the Wild Card last night.

Congrats to the Twins!