[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

We are not all going to die in the same time, I expect a transitory orderly process. On the demand side, there are new collectors coming in the market, thanks to the modern cards.

Of course not everyone from a generation is going to die at the same time, but statistically we can say with a very high degree of confidence that a large percentage of them are going to be dying within a time frame of a few years.

And I think its quite unrealistic to expect the number of new collectors entering the market to be enough to replace (or exceed) the number leaving. Modern cards (if that is what is going to draw them as you say) just aren't the cultural staple that they were pre-1990s anymore. While I'm sure there are lots of individual young collectors picking up the hobby, it isn't anything like the shared cultural experience that I had of baseball cards as a kid (I'm 41). Everyone collected baseball cards on the playground until about 20-25 year ago. Since then, its been more of a niche thing, which means it is appealing to a much smaller segment of that demographic than it was for earlier ones. Unless there is some secret society of young card collectors ou there that I am not aware of.

Originally Posted by joshuanip

From channel checks (facebook groups) there are many vintage collectors our there younger than me.

This is a problem of information availability. We have no direct data on the number of collectors out there, so we rely on anecdotal personal experience (like checking Facebook groups) and try to extrapolate from that. The problem is that we can't conclude from there mere fact that some younger collectors exist that they constitute a mass large enough to replace the baby boomers in the market. Other anecdotal evidence (which is also problematic but the best we have) suggests that isn't the case.

Originally Posted by joshuanip

I think their ability to buy cards will grow along with their income. So they will "fit" into our shoes. Give it time.

Of course the younger generation will have more income as they progress through their careers, but the question is whether or not they will want to spend that income on baseball cards. Some undoubtedly will. From what I have seen, I doubt that enough will to replace the hole that the baby boomers will leave in the market a few years from now. I just don't know how you are going to convince millions of millenials (and whatever they call the generation after them) to get interested enough in this thing that most of them don't care about, to start spending the kind of money that boomers did to create the prices that exist today. It just doesn't even remotely seem plausible.

Originally Posted by joshuanip

I disagree, prices in all assets move on a random walk, not linearly.

I didn't describe a linear movement, I described an exponential movement.

But that aside, random walk theory actually applies to stock prices and not all assets. I agree that trying to predict the values of individual cards in the future is a fool's errand, but that is not what I am trying to do, I'm just saying that the overall market faces a lot of factors that will likely put downward pressure on prices over time.

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Baseball is in decline, but its still part of history and will still be relevant after we die.

Just my one cent.

True, but the relative value that people place on it as part of history is decreasing and its likely this has some (as yet unquantifiable) effect on their willingness to buy baseball cards!