Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
If you believe what you say, you should be buying Jordan 10s. Just be careful, seriously, not to get a fake one, there are some pretty convincing ones from the Mexican guy out there.
My problem with 10s always has been that to me they are just Mint cards with a different flip for the most part -- that you couldn't tell apart but for the flip -- but in an era when flips seem to be independent commodities that seems not to matter.
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+1. Buy the card, not the holder. There are far too many "9's" which will compete with the "10's," with very little substantive difference between the two. Specifically, PSA has graded 2,418 "9's," 6,745 "8's," and 158 "8.5's." SGC has graded 308 "8's," 287 8.5's," 136 "9's," and 12 "10's." Taken together, the supply factor of "high grade" Jordan's looms far too large for me to take this card seriously as an investment in the long run. It's value will appreciate similarly to analogous coins in the coin market, where such items, scarce (and definitely not rare) in the highest numerical grade, but much more common in a minimally lower grade, are cyclical in value appreciation. The fact that a high grade Jordan rookie is simply not any kind of real rarity makes for a significant downside risk for the long term. If they're on the upswing and you can pick up one for the right price, flip it as soon as you can make some substantial money. Not at all an item for long term holding, IMHO, and very, very vulnerable to demand swings, whereas you won't see that with classical rarities in vintage cards. The latter will prove much more stable with likely very close to linear appreciation. What works to obtain the latter in EVERY field of collectibles is one simple formula: rare, significant, and in the best condition you can find or afford. The Jordan is not and never will be rare, although it meets the other criteria, but those are the two least important for value.
Highest regards,
Larry