The low numbers are #1-40 and #45-52. These were the cards on the first two sheets. Remember, Goudey cards were printed on ten 24 card sheets, and as Goudey liked to do, not in strict numerical order. Theory has it that this was a marketing ploy to fool kids into trying to find cards that had not yet been printed and distributed.
Greg, I think any type of analysis such as you are attempting does not make sense. This is a very thin market with low supply, few collectors, and thus not enough transactions.
May I suggest a different approach. Most of the low number commons have a population of 8-15 in PSA 8. Most commons from the higher series number 10-20 in PSA 8.
Now look at the PSA Registry and you will find that there are only 5 sets at 8 or higher and they are complete. So these are not potential buyers. There are currently no sets being built in PSA 8. So no buyers there. Certainly, there are no player set builders for common players.
I know there are buyers of PSA 8 Goudeys that are not on the Registry because I sell to them. But they are never going to attempt to complete the set at $500,000 plus, and they have little interest in buying $1,000 low series commons.
Last month you bought a #21 Collins at a fair price because you weren't bidding against anybody other than dealers or people like you looking for a deal. That is not a recipe for record prices unless the auctions are sham sales as we see many cards being sold and then offered again in a short time.
The only supply of high grade Goudeys is coming from set breaks. The cards on eBay from last night, were highly desirable low population cards. The prices were good but certainly not pre-2008 type prices. As you observed though, the Goudey market does seem a little stronger lately.
It seems to me that the only way to predict prices on Goudey auctions is to identify the potential buyers, knowing that in a thin market you might not see the two or three serious bidders necessary to get a fair reading on prices.
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