Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
What I don't get is why Pedro, with that incredible stretch, is only 22nd all time in WAR7. It's not a perfect metric but it must mean something.
|
The short answer, Peter? Pedro pitched less per season than the guys ahead of him. Here are his seven best seasons by WAR
2000 11.7
1999 9.8
1997 9.0
2003 8.0
1998 7.3
2005 7.0
2002 6.5
When I look at these seasons, the first thing that jumps out at me is his starts per season. Typically, a starter of the last few decades will get 33 or 34 starts in a full season. Pedro, for whatever reason, didn't. Here's his seven best WAR seasons with the number of starts.
2000 11.7 (29 starts)
1999 9.8 (29 starts)
1997 9.0 (31 starts)
2003 8.0 (29 starts)
1998 7.3 (33 starts)
2005 7.0 (31 starts)
2002 6.5 (30 starts)
59.3 WAR7
Look at his 2001 season, too. He had a 5.1 WAR, but only started 18 games. I don't recall the injury, and one would not usually assume he'd maintain the same level of dominance across 33 starts....but Pedro had 202 and 211 ERA + the next two seasons. Take that 5.1 WAR across 33 starts, everything else being constant. His WAR ends up being about a 9.4.
When I look at Clemens, he averaged 34 starts per 162 games for his career. Martinez averaged 31. Considering Clemens' career length, what he did was amazing. But then again, he was 6'4" 205 lbs. Pedro wasn't built for a long career. He's 5'11" 170 lbs. Johnson was 6'10" 225 when he played. Seaver and Gibson were both 6'1" and 190 lbs approximately.
Look at his seasonal WARs for those seven seasons if he averages 33 games started each year.
2000 11.7 (29 starts) (33 starts WAR is 13.3)
1999 9.8 (29 starts) (33 starts WAR is 11.2)
1997 9.0 (31 starts) (33 starts WAR is 9.6)
2003 8.0 (29 starts) (33 starts WAR is 9.0)
1998 7.3 (33 starts) (WAR does not change; he made 33 starts)
2005 7.0 (31 starts) (33 starts WAR is at 7.5)
2002 6.5 (30 starts) (33 starts WAR is 7.2)
Martinez gains another 19 starts, about 2/3 of his regular season work load. His WAR7 increases from 59.3 to 65.1. That moves him up to 13th, a half game behind Lefty Grove's 65.6. Grove and Clemens would be the only pitchers who started their career in the live ball era with higher WAR7.
Had he not missed so much of the 2001 season, it's more than likely he passes up his 2002 and 2005 tallies, thereby increasing his WAR7 further. This is clearly an estimation, but based on how he'd pitched that season, and the next two seasons, I don't think it's a stretch. Additionally, Clemens pitched 24 seasons to Martinez' 18. But Pedro broke down after the 2005 season.
Just look at the innings pitched by the modern era starters on this WAR7 list.
(IP per 162 games)
Gibson 262
Seaver 250
Gomez 250
Clemens 236
Randy Johnson 230
Martinez 217
Pedro's high IP seasons were 241 and 233. He didn't top 220 in any other season.
Clemens had eight seasons of 240 +, including four of over 260.
Johnson had seven seasons of 240 +, including two over 260.
I looked at Boston's rotation while Pedro was there. In 1998, they had a four man rotation (Martinez, Wakefield, Saberhagen and Steve Avery combined for 120 starts). In 1999, the starts were divided this way:
Pedro Martinez 29 (2.07 ERA)
Mark Portugal 27 (5.51 ERA)
Pat Rapp 26 (4.12 ERA)
Bret Saberhagen 22 (2.95 ERA)
Brian Rose 18 (4.87 ERA)
Tim Wakfield 17 (5.08 ERA)
Jin Ho Cho 7 (5.72 ERA)
Kent Mercker 5 (3.51 ERA)
Ramon Martinez 4 (3.05 ERA)
4 other pitchers with 7 starts