[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by rats60

I take it you studied Psychology by your blog. I studied Math and Statistics. You want to dismiss small sample size, but you can't do that. With a pitcher like Matty, his 101 WS innings are backed up by his career. Any random sample from a regular season is irrelevant to postseason. Now if you had an average player that had a great postseason, Larsen perfecto, you can dismiss as it is out of his normal range.

Statistics uses small sample sizes all the time. The bigger the better, but they don't ignore small ones, it just leads to less confidence in the result. When there is significant regular season performance to back up that sample size, it produces a higher confidence. Your flaw is your opinion that postseason games aren't significant and no different than regular season ones.

Pollsters use a small sample size of 1000 to predict an election of over 120 million. They do it very accurately. Even the last election when they missed the result of the electoral college, the result of the general election was right on as well as most individual states.

Some of that is correct.