Quote:
Originally Posted by sfh24
I do not see where I indicated my "interest level" in Mike Trout's accomplishments but rather the use of WAR as a means of delineation. I am thoroughly versed in the minute details of his accomplishments.
In regards to the Mantle comparison, Mike Trout is one of several who match up with Mantle statistically. However, (as all of the rest) Mike Trout falls far short of Mantle when it comes to production on the highest stage.
The focal point of the topic pertains to the mass production of the 2011 Topps Update vs the ability sustain its current value.
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A bit of correction is due here, I think. First of all, Trout, though he should be in his absolute prime, has not even matched Mantle's THIRD best season in 1961, based on OPS+ (I saw Mantle while still in his prime--he was at least Trout's equal in fielding and baserunning, certainly being a bit swifter than Trout). Second, Trout has yet to go through his inevitable mid to late '30's downslide, so while his current OPS+ is right around that of Mantle FOR THE LATTER'S ENTIRE CAREER, it isn't likely to stay there (my prediction is that rather than Mantle's 172 OPS+ career mark, Trout is more likely to end up around Mays (156) and Aaron (155). Trout, unequivocally, does not match up with Mantle statistically. Third, as noted at length in another post, WAR has been known to occasionally yield what should easily be recognized as absurd results, due to its over-weighting of defensive runs saved (in its' official form, it ignores the context, handing out a defensive run saved for a great play robbing the batter of a hit with two outs and a man on first for example, as well as the same great play with two outs and the bases loaded). Defensive runs saved only has value in comparing the number of great fielding plays made between players of the same position in an evaluation limited to that purpose.
Fourth, we know for a fact that it also overrates baserunning. Bill James came up with a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score based on an equation including both positive and negative events (with the former being the numerator and the latter the denominator, as I recall) which was consistently accurate within 2-3 %, and the only "baserunning" factors it took into account were stolen bases versus number of times caught stealing and number of times grounding into double plays. Taking that as a given, we can conclude that baserunning, in terms of taking the extra base, certainly is not a huge factor in a player's offensive worth.
What "WAR" really stands for, in the event one is attempting to utilize it as one number which accurately evaluates the total worth of a player, is WORTHLESS ANALYTICAL RATSHIT. It is simply one factor to be considered along with many others, and by no means the be-all and end-all of the complete value of a player. WAR, last June, had Mike Trout supposedly on pace to post the greatest single season of all time, when in point of actual fact, he was on pace to match Mantle's third best season (1961), based on OPS+ (which has a 92% correlation to runs created), and there were any number of player's seasons which were quite obviously considerably better--see the numerous seasons in which both Babe Ruth and Ted Williams created more than 300% of the league average runs produced by a player. Trout, of course, fell behind that pace with his injury, ending up this past season with a 199 OPS+ to Mantle's 206 OPS+ for 1961. Once more at the risk of redundancy, Trout beyond any rational dispute, does not match up with Mantle statistically, at least at this point, and personally, I think his chances of doing so are about 250 miles behind in the rear view mirror.
'Nuff said,
Larry