Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus
The demand for Trout is still comprised of too large a portion of speculation and transience, the latter meaning it will depart and "pledge allegiance" to another player when the next, latest and greatest hottest thing comes along. Trout has yet to match even Mantle's third best season (1961--check the OPS+ stats, if you doubt me), let alone his peaks in 1956 and '57, at a time when Trout should be in his absolute prime. I understand the urge to buy now and thereby pick up a "piece of the action," but I think that his prices will come down when he hits his 30's downslide, a la Albert Pujols. Or he might suffer a shoulder or other injury as Eddie Matthews did in '62, taking him down from being a great player to simply a good one. A lot of people were talking about Matthews, not Aaron, breaking the Babe's career HR record before that (Eddie had 370 by the time he was 30, as I recall, but hit just 142 more in the next 6 seasons combined).
I just wouldn't consider him a real investment vehicle at this point. IMHO, there is going to be a severe correction in the newer card market, just as there was in the early to mid-'90's, as prices such as $35K+ for a one of 50 Trout refractor rookie in just NMt-MT+ and $99,000 for a PSA 10 '93 SP Jeter, of which literally thousands exist in the higher grades, simply don't make sense.
Good luck to you either way you choose,
Larry
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Those Mantle seasons are truly epic, and it's amazing to think that despite the heights Trout has achieved, Mantle owns a few seasons that are arguably quite a bit better. And yet, even with that, I believe Trout now owns the most WAR for a player through his age-26 season. Regardless of the side of the Trout/Mantle argument one falls, we are talking about the absolute best of the best in the history of the game.
As for the 2011 Topps Update Trout, there is certainly downside to investing in one, but I think the real danger would be in the lack of upside. Obviously, it will retain SOME value regardless of what Trout does from this point on (Trout is already a first-ballot HOFer), but how much higher could it realistically go? For the near- and medium-term, I would hazard that it must be near it's peak.
When it comes to the correction on the newer card market, the $99k on the 1993 Jeter SP is an interesting one, and another example sold for $76k since then. When the first auction happened, I theorized that the PSA 10 population was likely to increase substantially from the 22 at the time thanks to reviews, crossovers and new submissions - but here we are six months later and there are still just the 22 PSA 10 examples. I wouldn't invest in one of those Jeter PSA 10s, but I was definitely wrong about their numbers increasing. And for what it's worth, I noted at the time that there were 567 examples of the Jeter in PSA 9, now there are 582.
Final thought and back to the 2011 Topps Update Trout - it does seem a little sad to me that the raw examples even sell at a few hundred dollars, as I'm sure there must be some younger collectors who have only recently gotten into the hobby and have Trout as their favorite player, but can't afford to get one of these cards. Even for a card that was mass produced and sold it packs, they might be priced out for some kids. Maybe a correction will help them!
Oops, one more note: just looked on eBay and there are REPRINTS of the 2011 Topps Update Trout selling for $5 or even more. That's crazy - and where are these reprints coming from (the ones I saw have a 2011 copyright date)? Topps can't be churning these out, right?