Let's put aside the history of fraud and felony, along with the false story of being a relative. Instead, let's just assume for a minute that someone really did want to corner the market on a card for profit. What would be the best formula?
1. Go with a classic set that will always have collectors
2. Choose a card there are the fewest of (i.e., high number, non-DP)
3. Choose a common since stars will cost too much.
4. Don't tell everyone what you're doing.
So our guy here succeeded with 3 out of 4. But let's imagine he went 4 for 4 and kept it up for another 15 years...
I'll assume he ends up with 600 of the card, at an avg purchase price of $300. That's $180K in all. I'll also assume there are 300 other surviving copies out there, scattered across various collectors holding 1-2 cards each.
Now there are two paths forward.
1. Call attention to the scarcity of the card and hope the market responds by doubling its valuation. If so, Cole could see a good profit on his first N sales, but at some point these sales would serve to erode the scarcity. So basically a fail.
2. In a high profile event, destroy all but perhaps the 10 highest grade copies of the card. Now the scarcity is permanent, and Cole holds perhaps 10 of the 15 highest grade copies. Because there are still 300 or so other copies out there, I still don't see enough scarcity to recoup the investment, but I would at least see immortality in the Hobby Lore and perhaps a handful of high-adrenalin sales in the $20K range.
Anyone see vastly different scenarios or outcomes?
Last edited by jason.1969; 10-26-2015 at 08:41 AM.
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