Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards
first he only played 118 games that year if I remember correctly so that takes it to once every 6 games. Then how often did he see a pitch on a three ball count? He walked 58 times (and since I had to look that up I checked he played 117 games that year) how many more 3 ball counts above those 58 do you think he saw in 515 plate appearances? Then how many of those WOULD have been ball four that he swung at? I would posit that with three balls the next pitch is probably a strike more often than other counts which lowers the possible number even more. I honestly don't know, but I meant it about Elias. This is the kind of statistic they excel at. But I still think it'll probably be, to most, a surprisingly small number.
515 PA's
- 58 Walks
_________
457 PA's
How many reached Ball 3?
Statistically speaking a 3 ball count is significantly less common. First of all the at bat has to last at LEAST 3 pitches, and then you need three balls. Plus I don't know how often he would swing away at 3 - 0, so that may impact one of the possible 3 ball counts. But if you throw out logic and just look at statistics there are 12 different possible counts only 3 of which are 3 ball counts, or 25%.
That would indicate he had 114 3 ball counts that didn't result in walks. I gotta imagine it was actually a LOT less than that.
Interesting thought exercise though. Fun stuff.
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Seems to me every single batter these days goes to 3-2 plus 5 foul balls. Just kidding, but not really.
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