Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerplyr80
I haven't watched but read about him. The same strategy that has allowed for his big wins will probably do him in when he gets a couple daily doubles wrong. Unless he knows everything.
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No doubt that is how he's going to lose eventually. He likely knows over 90% of the questions in a typical game though, and the way he wagers he'd have to miss two large wagers in a row (both Daily Doubles in the 2nd round, or the last Daily Double and the Final) for someone else to beat him. That might only have about a 1% chance of happening each game. Even then he'd have a decent chance of winning since his opponents usually can't break $10,000.
It's a good strategy for him, and it would probably be a good strategy for most other Jeopardy contestants (almost all of whom, as Ken Jennings has said, know almost all of the questions almost all of the time). It's just a testament to how loss-averse humans are that it took 35 years of the show (and something like 14,000 different contestants) for someone to come along and wager so heavily so reliably. Jennings himself did slightly better in terms of number of correct responses per game but played with the goal of winning each game rather than maximizing his expected earnings.
At this point I'd guess he'll sail past $1,000,000 but that he won't win 74 in a row. The question then is whether he'll have earned more than the Jennings number (something like $2.5 million) in his 20 or 30 or 40 game streak or whatever it ends up at.
The other thing I keep thinking as a viewer is that none of the other contestants so far seem to have taken him into account in deciding how they should play. They're just hoping he makes a big mistake rather than trying to copy him so they can stay within range for the final wager. Not that they're getting many opportunities with the Daily Doubles, but when it has happened they've wagered far more conservatively than they should.