I'll second Charlie there.
One of the reasons that modern cards don't interest me is that they really are just a kind of gambling. Cardboard slot machines. There has always been some tomfoolery involved in baseball cards: think of the Goudey Lajoie; just skipping a number to get the kids to buy more cards is pretty sneaky. But, as far as I can tell, this is all that modern cards have become.
As for whether they'll hold their value, I don't know. But most collectibles that are made to be collectible are junk (think about things like the decorative plates that they sell on QVC). Vintage cards (this is actually a nice crossover point for another thread) weren't made to be collectibles, at least not in any modern sense, they were made to be children's toys. Bike spokes and all that. Now, it's permissible to think that adults shouldn't spend money collecting children's toys, but if there is a problem with it, it's not the same one as buying lottery tickets from Upper Deck.
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