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brian parkerI think that there are about the same amount of vintage cards available out there in the market as there were a decade to 15 years ago. In fact, there might even be more available to purchase to the casual consumer now due to the major auction houses expanding their customer base, and Ebay making them available to a nationwide audience. Before you had to get lucky at a card shop, card show or know the right dealers with the inventory. No decent card shops and shows near you--either drive a long distance or you are out of luck. The market has remained the same, just the marketplace has altered.
I believe the dynamic of the whole dealer/collector relationship has gradually shifted over the years. When at one time a longtime collector would sell his collection to a trusted dealer, who would sell the cards individually at card shows or through a catalog, this collector is more likely to send his choice cards and tough sets to a major auction house, which quite often end up in another collectors hands only. So these tough cards are available, but only if you have enough money to blow in one large chunk. Individual cards show up, but as is true in the case of Ebay, you will be bidding against many other dedicated collectors from around the nation. Good luck if you are hoping to land one cheaply--it probably won't happen.
When I first started collecting vintage bb cards, the small size E-cards were, believe it or not, a somewhat neglected and looked down upon group of cards. They lacked the availability of the T cards, were deemed inferior aesthetically in comparision to such beautiful sets as the T206, T205, T3's, etc, and were frowned upon because of their usual lesser condition, having been collected by kids instead of tobacco smoking adults. For the most part the pricing on such cards reflected this. It has only been the last dozen or so years that they have risen in stature in collectors eyes, and the last five years or so have really taken off in terms of collector interest.
Which brings me to another point. I believe that the rising collector interest in vintage bb cards is the main reason for the seeming scarcity of tougher cards. In just the last few years Ebay has risen the visibility of our little bb collecting niche. I think there is more interest in the less common and unusual cards now, partly because Ebay has exposed the relative scarcity of some issues versus such monsters as the T206 and Goudeys. If you have collected a long time you probably already have acquired a good notion of which cards and issues are less common, but this knowledge is much more readily accessible and obtainable by the newer collector from tracking Ebay listings. Also, Ebay allows a person to view a (usually) decent image of the actual card, where before it might have just been a description or listing in a catalog. Visuals sell and increase exposure. This expanded interest in cards from non-major issues means more collectors, and when there are more collectors there is an increased liklihood that at least some of these people are the type to never sell, or when they do to send their large accumulations to an auction house. Which recycles the auction house point I made earlier.
Wow, sometimes a synopsis turns into an essay. Feel free to make as many red pencil corrections in the margins as necessary.
Brian