Quote:
Originally Posted by Econteachert205
The commoditization of baseball cards is a temporary phenomenon that began in the 1970s and in my opinion will end for the most part in the 2070's. There simply are too many cards and insufficient replacement of dying collectors. Cards are not art or coins. They do not have intrinsic value and are not created as one off expressions. Like stamps, which have already gone through this process, the ultra valuable with remain so, but 95 percent of the rest will be worth pennies on the dollar. The mantle will always be valuable, but how many 16 year olds right now will desire one at those prices upon entering adulthood? I'd love one, having been a collector, but at 35, I have no interest in spending that sort of money, nor can I, on a piece of cardboard of which there are many copies.
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Yuck, Yuck. Now that's a good one! Never mind that the trend has been quite consistently exactly the other way for nearly 50 years. And the first coin that sold for $10,000,000? A 1794 silver dollar graded Mint State 66 by PCGS in January, 2013. I haven't checked the value of silver per ounce lately, but the "intrinsic value" had to be what? $10,00? $20.00 max? Not terribly rare, either, if you're not that concerned with condition--140 examples estimated to have survived, with very nice examples apt to grade Fine to Very Fine. That same coin, in extremely fine, was valued at $25,000 in 1980, $125,000 in 2003, and $150,000 in 2005--maybe a trend--heavens, even a collectible trend--at work? Maybe other truly classic collectibles might be susceptible to those very same trends??? Maybe it might have something to do with history, since the 1794 dollar was the first coin of that denomination made by the very, very young country, the United States? Wow! Hold it in your hand (in its' PCGS holder, of course) and perhaps, just perhaps, it takes you back to the early, historic days of America itself? Perhaps you can feel a connection to people like Benjamin Franklin, George Washington and others that were alive and moved in real time through that small, round slug of silver? Maybe people even like history? Have you ever seen shows like "American Pickers," Pawnstars," or Antiques Roadshow?" OF COURSE THEY DO!
Do you really think that collectors that buy 2.5 million dollar '71 Hemi 'Cuda convertibles (11 made, making it the king of all 426 Hemi muscle cars) actually do so for their "intrinsic value," i.e., to drive? Somehow I doubt it. An occasional cruise around the block or so to keep everything lubricated (gaskets and seals dry out otherwise), but that's about it. No, it's a collectible, one that takes them back to the HISTORIC days of the first great muscle car era (though towards the end of that era) and likely one that will continue to appreciate IMHO for quite awhile. More and more classic cars are moving into the 7 and even 8 figure bracket, just within the last year or two. Why? Because they are pieces of HISTORY that take these collectors back to the interests and days that they treasure and cherish!
In case you haven't noticed, many areas of collectibles are growing, and growing now even more rapidly due to the internet (even the rarest items will ultimately, inevitably show up on ebay). Oh, but the sky is falling, the sky is falling--but just not now; wait until 2070! This field of collecting is based on a fundamental element of human nature, and for that reason, I highly doubt it.
As to the failure to replace dying collectors, I believe the most recent surveys regarding the average age of our own board members have shown that age to be DECREASING, not increasing. And if you've been to a National lately, you likely will have seen the hoards of younger people--sure, they'll start out with Harper and Trout, or maybe Kershaw or Scherzer, but inevitably, many, many will move on to Gehrig, Ruth, Mantle, Williams, Cobb, Wagner, Johnson, Grove, Foxx, etc., etc. People simply LIKE baseball, and a certain percentage are interested in its HISTORY. Of those that are, cards are the perfect tangible gateway to it--almost like time travel, they connect you to the player, and take you back to the time. Through vintage cards, you truly can hold the HISTORY of the game right in your hands!
The quote above sounds like sour grapes to me, just as another post did--oh, woe is me! The market is moving on, and leaving me behind. Well, wealthy people like various fields of HISTORY too! They can buy the best, and they will. Just my $10.50 worth.
Larry