[ZiggerZagger]

Like all of us, who knows how the factors will all end up playing out for the hobby in general. I hope it continues to be sustainable, and doesn't die a slow death as other peer hobbies have such as stamps and, to a much lesser degree, coins.

I certainly think it's optimistic to expect vintage to continue to appreciate as it has done in the past 5 years. I got back into cards full-throttle in about 2011/2012 and it was phenomenal timing -- a good bulk of those purchases from 2011-2015 have increased by 70-100% in value in the last few years. My personal feeling is that we are on the back end of the recent run-up in prices, and folks who were able to be drawn in to spend considerable amounts in the market have indeed been drawn in. Were prices to continue accelerating at current rate, I would personally take a hard look at the wisdom of continuing to be in a strong acquisition mode.

A reckoning certainly came in 2008 by all accounts, and we also had a significant correction in post-war prices after the "alleged" market manipulation in Spring 2016 on certain cards (Rose, Aaron, Clemente RC's, etc.). It was actually reassuring to see the market find a new level after that fiddling, and then relative stability, albeit still with some soft pricing on those cards in particular.

Some food for thought, courtesy of my cousin who is a PhD Social Psychologist and always good for a fresh perspective... The group characteristics of the Millenial generation are truly different from the generations prior (BB, GenX, GenY), insofar as they choose to prioritize Experiences over Material Goods. As apparent proof of this, they spend a disproportionate amount of their disposable income on Vacations/Travel, etc. Not sure where a baseball card fits into that ethos... Certainly doesn't preclude individuals behaving differently, blah, blah, but this is an apparent reality.

Last random thought, as a late GenX'er it's interesting to think back and recall the mid/late 80's and early 90's. I recall that absolutely *everyone* was buying/collecting baseball cards. Not to get rich, but it was a cultural phenomenon. It was an absolute fantasy for me to ever think of owning a Mantle. I still remember the awe I felt when a friend told me he had a beat-up '58 Maris (and the thrill when he finally sold it to me for $35 and about 5 Todd Zeile Score Rookies...). Card collecting seems a lot more compartmentalized today, but I do expect that a good number of those who collect modern today will someday hear the siren song of vintage.

Let's hope the numbers bear out enough willing collectors to dedicate their disposable income to vintage to keep us ticking along, or at least keep our heads above water.

Oh, and for a prediction, I'll throw out my suspicion that high-end vintage commons (8's, 9's, 10's) will crash and burn someday price-wise. Right or wrong, I'll go with that.