Quote:
Originally Posted by Bored5000
I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.
Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.
I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.
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If they can't fake fine art to the point where prices of Van Goghs to Basquiats collapse, the forgers won't collapse the market on Ruths and Mantles. The money to be made now in faking cards is great; the technology available today is great; and yet, we can still discern real from fugazi. I doubt some miracle technology will appear that blows the game open with respect to forging.
We all have different definitions in our heads, when we wonder where "cards" will be in value down the line. My money is on the big HOF cards with eye appeal only appreciating in the years if not decades to come.
And let's say those seeing a collapse due to low-demand are right; when will this happen? 50 years, when guys in their mid 30s now are 80s? There are enough of us in our 30s and 40s to sustain current prices and then some. Even guys who are 50 today have at least, on average, a quarter century left of active buying. So color me unconcerned about what happens 25+ years out.
I don't know many people who project and act on 25 or 50 year windows. 2 years, 5 years, maybe even 10. Buy once we are talking about what happens around half a century down the line (or even a couple decades) I think it all just becomes too impossible to say.