01-24-2019, 04:28 PM
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j'a'y mi.ll.e.r
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: The Bronx
Posts: 5,385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug.goodman
Stealing from the ESPN story from 2013 that Paul posted a link to below :
Let me again cite the work of Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith:
Teams leading by one run after eight innings have gone on to win 85.7 percent of the time. That number goes up to 93.7 percent when leading by two runs, and 97.5 percent when leading by three runs.
Mull that over, and then please tell me why Rivera is so amazing for having an 89.1 percent career save rate (which, by the way, is lower than Joe Nathan's). Because, basically, Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway. Actually, the percentages were usually higher than that. According to Elias, of Rivera's 652 career saves, just under a third (210) were with a one-run lead when he took the mound while 216 were with a two-run lead, 180 with a three-run lead and 46 with a lead of at least four runs.
To paraphrase, Mariano has :
210 saves when he came in with an 85.7% chance of winning
216 saves when he came in with a 93.7% chance of winning
180 saves when he came in with a 97.5% chance of winning
46 saves when he came in with better than a 97.5% chance of winning
The save is a stupid stat.
As I said before, he was really really good, probably the best, at the job he was asked to do.
Doug
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You are comparing apples and oranges. Save rate is not win rate. You can blow the save and still win the game so save rate is the more restrictive of the two. I think we can all agree that starter and closer are two different pitching positions. We can also agree that Mariano was by far the greatest closer ever. Mariano was superior to any other closer ever by more than the best starting pitcher ever (you fill in your choice)has been to the second best starting pitcher ever. I’ll stop there. If I had to get one hitter out and could pick one pitcher to do it it would be Mariano. If I needed a starting pitcher for game 7 of the World Series, and I would be hoping he could go deep into the game, it would not be Mariano.
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